Before I go into the two main guys and make the hard choice between them, let's look at the others who will probably fill out a number of ballots, which made the NL Cy Young decision even harder this year. We'll start with third-place finisher Stephen Strasburg, who finally pitched to his potential this season and gave the Nationals a true No. 2 behind Scherzer. Strasburg went 15-4, ranked third in the NL in ERA (2.52) and was third in WHIP (1.02). He also had 204 strikeouts, two more than a certain Dodgers lefty (albeit in one additional start).
Traditionally, it's been difficult for relievers to enter into the Cy Young discussion. Zach Britton had an incredible season for the Orioles a few years ago and didn't come close, and Mariano Freakin' Rivera's highest Cy Young finish was second in 2005. The last reliever to win the Cy Young was Eric Gagne in 2003, and he had to go 55-for-55 in save chances in order to get it.
Where am I going with this? The current Dodgers' closer had a hell of a year, and if not for Scherzer and Kershaw being Scherzer and Kershaw, Kenley Jansen might've had a legitimate Cy Young chance. He went 41-for-42 in save chances and had a 5-0 record. Jansen's strikeouts (109), WHIP (0.75) and batting average against (.177) were all ridiculous for a guy who only pitched 68.1 innings.
They require five names on the Cy Young ballot, and the fifth name on mine is Arizona's Robbie Ray. He only threw 162 innings, the minimum for ERA qualification and fewer than any of the other starters in the discussion. But, Ray was 15-5, ranked fourth in ERA (2.89), held opponents to a .199 average and struck out 218, a rate of 12.1 per nine innings. For a playoff team.
But the real question is whether it went Scherzer-Kershaw 1-2 or vice versa. Scherzer threw 200 innings, led the league in strikeouts, batting average against and WHIP, and finished second (behind Kershaw) in ERA. Kershaw, meanwhile, was vintage Kershaw. He wasn't 2014 MVP Clayton Kershaw, but, if not for a DL stint, he might've been. The Dodgers didn't lose a game he started from the beginning of May until after the All*Star break. The league-leader in wins and ERA, he only walked 30 guys all year. In 27 starts. That's barely one per start! And Kershaw still managed 200 strikeouts despite only pitching 175 innings.
Like I said, it's close. So what will be the deciding factor? Scherzer threw 25 extra innings and had four complete games to Kershaw's two. But...Kershaw only had one bad start (except for Game 5 of the World Series), and the Dodgers were 23-4 in his starts. Washington, meanwhile, was 21-10 with Scherzer on the mound. They're both aces. But they can't both win. So, I give the nod to Kershaw. Scherzer 2, Jansen 3, Strasburg 4, Ray 5.
Over in the American League, everyone thought Chris Sale had the Cy Young locked up in August. Then the somebody changed the Klubot's battery and he became lights out down the stretch. To the tune of 5-0 with a 0.84 ERA in September. He gave up just four earned runs (and six runs total) and issued a mere three walks over his final six starts. Overall, he finished 18-4 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and .193 opponents batting average. It was a bit of an upset when Kluber won the Cy Young in 2014. It'll really be an upset if he doesn't win a second in 2017.
Which isn't to say Sale was a slouch. His first year in Boston was awesome, which is why he looked like a lock for the season's first five months. The sheer number of strikeouts (308) was mind-boggling, especially when you consider he only walked 43. Sale's year was excellent. It just wasn't as good as Kluber's.
Meanwhile, Luis Severino went from exiled to the bullpen at the end of 2016 to the Yankees' ace at the end of 2017. His 14-6 record is deceiving because got a lot of no decisions in Yankee wins. And Severino often went toe-to-toe with the opposing team's ace, and usually held his own. The number speak for themselves anyway. Severino emerged as one of the best pitchers in the American League this season. He finished third in this year's Cy Young race, but it won't be too long before he wins one.
My ballot is filled out by Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco. Verlander had a resurgent season going in Detroit when he was traded to Houston at literally the last minute, and he put the Astros over the top. The Astros didn't lose a game he started until Game 6 of the World Series. I know you can't base an entire season on one month. But his September/October is still fresh in everyone's minds and was so good that it can't be ignored. Carrasco, meanwhile, went 18-6, tying his teammate Kluber for the AL lead in wins. He also had an undefeated September and was clearly the best No. 2 starter in the American League. Carrasco ranked among the top five in strikeouts and WHIP, and he was sixth in ERA.
Kluber's the clear winner in the AL. I've got Sale second, followed by Severino, Verlander and Carrasco.
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