Monday, November 27, 2017

Oh-tani


This is Shohei Otani.  He's the biggest free agent name available this offseason.  Known as the "Japanese Babe Ruth," he's a middle-of-the-order hitter who can also throw 102 as a pitcher.  He wants to do both in the Majors.  And there are plenty of teams willing to give him that chance.

What Otani will attempt to do is unprecedented.  There are plenty of pitchers who are also good hitters (Madison Bumgarner), and we've seen pitchers flame out only to come back as position players (Rick Ankiel).  Likewise, there are those like Kenley Jansen, the Dodgers closer who was drafted as a catcher.  But a starting pitcher who's also a regular in the lineup is something you don't usually see after college (and even then it's rare).  

It happens all the time in Little League and high school, but, as they develop as prospects, players eventually have to make a choice.  They're either a hitter or a pitcher.  It's too hard to be successful at both.  Yet that's exactly what Otani is trying to do.  He did it in Japan.  Now he's headed to America, where all 30 teams have the opportunity to sign him.  Although, the number of teams where Otani would be a realistic fit is pretty limited.

Logically, it would make the most sense for Otani to join an American League team, where he can DH on the days he isn't pitching (imagine how much different Ruth's career might've been if they'd had the DH back then).  I even saw one article that had a suggested pitching/DHing schedule for Otani that goes like this: pitch, rest, DH, DH, rest.  That schedule would obviously only work in the AL.

So what American League teams stand the best chance of landing Otani?  Well, the most obvious name thrown out there whenever a free agent hits the market is the Yankees.  But, since he's only 23, Otani is limited in the amount of money he can make.  Regardless of what team signs him, he's limited to a maximum of $3.5 million a year.  Which means money isn't the obstacle it would normally be, allowing more teams to enter the sweepstakes.

Which means the Yankees won't be Otani's only suitors (nor are they necessarily the best fit).  I actually think he's going to end up in Texas.  The Rangers have plenty of international bonus pool money available and needs both in the rotation and the lineup.  Seattle has also had success with Japanese free agents in the past, so the Mariners could definitely be a realistic option, as well.  I've also heard Minnesota and Tampa Bay mentioned, but I find them both to be long shots.

That doesn't mean he's off limits to National League teams.  It'll just be harder for them to find the lineup spot for him since he'd need to play the outfield on the non-pitching days.  Regardless, the Dodgers (of course) and Cubs (of course) have expressed interest in signing Otani.  I'm not sure he'd be a fit with either of the NLCS combatants, though.  Sure, they could use him as a pitcher, but they both already have like six outfielders!

There are a lot of question marks surrounding Otani and what he's attempting to do.  For example, what if he goes on the DL?  Do you call up a hitter or a pitcher to replace him?  What if he struggles at one and not the other?  Do you send him down?  What if it gets to the point where you want him to specialize (it will happen)?  How will he take it when you tell him any of those things?

But that's not deterring anyone from going after him.  Somebody's going to let him do it exactly the way he wants.  Otani's going to be on a Major League roster in 2018, as both a pitcher and a hitter.  And it's going to be his choice.

In fact, Otani's agents are making the teams that are interested in him fill out a ridiculous written questionnaire saying why he should sign with them.  If I were a GM, that's where I'd say "thanks, but no thanks."  Otani and his people are acting as if he's the Second Coming.  I understand he's a different type of free agent.  But requiring teams to go above and beyond in their pursuit is absurd.  He should be treated like any other free agent.  It should be up to the individual teams how aggressive they want to be.  If he's not interested after what he hears from them, so be it.

Sorry for sounding so skeptical about Otani.  But there's a reason why the pitcher/hitter combo hasn't worked before.  I'm gonna need to see it to believe it.  Whoever signs him could end up with a steal.  But he could just as easily be a bust (as how many other Japanese imports have been?).  I just hope they know what they're getting into and the circus they're bringing upon themselves.  

If he's as good as everyone says he is, though.  Wow!  I can't wait to see it.  A starter who throws 102 and a middle-of-the-order power hitter.  In the same guy.  That's quite a two-in-one package.

No comments:

Post a Comment