Houston Hockey

As soon as the NHL announced Las Vegas was getting an expansion team, we knew that there would be another.  Unlike the NFL or MLB, the NHL will be able to get away with 31 teams for a little while.  But the ultimate goal is obviously to have 32 teams.  And now that the Golden Knights have begun play, the focus turns to where that 32nd team will be located.

Most people, myself included, have long assumed that it was going to be simply a formality that Quebec City would be receiving that second expansion team.  In fact, it was somewhat of a surprise when Quebec and Vegas weren't awarded expansion franchises at the same time.  Quebec still makes sense for a lot of reasons, but the NHL has apparently steered away from returning to the former home of the Nordiques.  They have a new expansion target in mind: Houston.

Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta met with Gary Bettman recently to express his interest in bringing the NHL to Houston.  Unlike previous Rockets owners, he welcomes the prospect of having a hockey team share the Toyota Center, an arena that was actually built with hockey in mind.  Houston has been home to a successful minor league team in the past, so there's plenty of local support, too.  It really does seem like Houston is gaining traction.  Enough to be granted that 32nd NHL team?  That remains to be seen.

Houston would definitely be a viable NHL market, and it's an intriguing one.  Houston is the fourth-largest media market in the U.S., and, now that LA has football again, the largest that doesn't have a team in each of the four major sports.  It's by far the largest non-NHL city in either country, and it would also open up the NHL to an entirely new market while also giving the Dallas Stars an in-state rival.

Geographically, Houston might have an advantage over other potential suitors Quebec and Seattle.  Not only is it a large market that would create a natural rivalry with an existing franchise, it's located right smack in the middle of the country.  The Central Division is the one with seven teams, which means any expansion franchise would either go in the Central or there would be realignment to even the divisions out.  Houston wouldn't require realignment.  That might seem like a small thing, but it would make the NHL's life a lot easier to simply plop a Houston team in the Central Division (which is the same division as the Stars).

Although, there are definitely some concerns about the Houston market that need to be considered before simply placing an expansion team in the city.  The first and most obvious is that Houston is a non-traditional hockey market.  The NHL has had mixed results with its Sun Belt experiment.  Nashville is thriving, but there are attendance issues in Arizona, Florida and Carolina, and Atlanta already moved to Winnipeg.  Houston even saw its AHL team, the Aeros, move to Iowa, although that was more of a lease situation between the arena and the Wild. 

The Aeros always had strong fan support, though, so Houston probably wouldn't be as much of a gamble as those other markets were.  Although, they'd be looking to break into a market that already has three other major league professional teams, as well as major colleges.  Where does the NHL fit into the somewhat saturated Houston market?  Would they attract enough fans to fill the arena every night?  (They had the same concern about the other entertainment options in Las Vegas, though, and the Golden Knights have sold out every one of their home games so far.)

So, the question really becomes whether or not the NHL thinks there's more value in Houston than in either Quebec City or Seattle (or somewhere else).  And I think there is.  It would be a new market, but not one that's completely untested.  They've got an interested owner who wants to have the NHL in his city, and enough of a fan base to make it worthwhile.  Besides, this gives them an opportunity to break into the fourth-largest TV market in the United States.

That's the advantage Houston has over both Quebec and Seattle.  Quebec-Montreal and Seattle-Vancouver both offer the type of rivalries that Houston-Dallas would.  But Quebec would immediately be one of the smallest markets in the NHL (which is one of the reasons the Nordiques left in the first place).  And Seattle lost the Sonics mainly because of the arena situation that still isn't resolved. 

Seattle's other problem is that it wouldn't exactly be breaking new ground for the NHL.  Sure, Seattle's never had an NHL team (although, fun fact, the 1917 Seattle Metropolitans of the PCHL were the first American team to win the Stanley Cup).  But Vancouver's had an NHL team since 1970, and the two cities are located less than 150 miles from each other.  And, while Vancouver is the third-largest city in Canada, Seattle is just the 18th-largest in the United States.  Houston's population is nearly three times that of Seattle's.

Either way, somebody's going to get an NHL team and somebody else is going to be left out in the cold.  But the expansion carrot is just one thing hanging out there.  Whichever city isn't selected for expansion, whether it's Houston or Seattle or Quebec City, will be seen as a relocation target for a franchise looking to move.  So, we might end up seeing them all get a team after all.  It's really just a matter of who gets a team first, and which one does it via expansion. 

Regardless, all three have the potential to be great NHL markets.  We'll just have to see who they pick.  And if lightning can strike twice.  Because they hit a home run with Las Vegas.  And even if they don't hit another one, the NHL could do worse than Houston, Quebec or Seattle.  It'll be a win for the league either way.