The Value of a Win

Over the last 10 years or so, ever since the word "sabermetrics" entered baseball vocabulary, people have been trying to devalue the win.  The argument is that there are so many factors other than how well the pitcher actually pitched that the "win" isn't really indicative of his performance.  He could pitch well and get no run support in a loss or no decision or, conversely, get a win despite not pitching that great because he made it through five innings with a ton of run support.

Well, if the win is so insignificant, why does it still mean so much to the pitchers themselves?  Twice last week, Yankees manager Joe Girardi took his starting pitcher out in the fifth inning of a game the Yankees were leading, making them ineligible for the win.  Both pitchers--CC Sabathia and Jaime Garcia--were visibly upset.  Girardi didn't care, and he shouldn't.  His priority was the team win (the Yankees did win both games).  But, even in this sabermetric era, getting the win is still pretty important to the pitcher.

Yes, I'm stating the obvious here.  Pitchers want the win.  It's important to them.  Sure, owners and GMs might look at ERAs and strikeouts and WHIPs and fastball velocity when scouting pitchers and considering which free agents to sign.  But what's the only thing listed on every box score?  The winner, the loser, and who got the save (if there was one).  And, whatever their other stats might be, it's the pitchers who win that make the most money when the time comes to get paid.

Think of some of the best pitchers in baseball.  Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Chris Sale.  They all pitch deep into games and, as a result, get decisions.  No one, not even the sabermetrics crowd, can question the validity of their records, which, for the most part, are the same as their teams' record in their starts (which is actually one of my favorite stats to look up).

This all came to a head a few years ago when the AL Cy Young went to Felix Hernandez, who went 13-12 for the last-place Mariners, instead of 21-game winner David Price, whose Rays won the AL East.  I, personally, thought Price deserved to win over Hernandez, but that's besides the point.  What that Cy Young race showed us is the changing view of writers about traditional statistics.

Except here's the problem: many of those same writers are Hall of Fame voters.  And what do Hall of Fame voters look at?  Strikeouts and ERA, yes, but also wins and winning percentage.  So, if wins aren't important anymore, why do they still matter when it comes time to vote for the Hall of Fame?  You can't have it both ways.  It either matters or it doesn't.  

Maybe that's why going five innings and getting the win was so important to CC Sabathia.  Yes, it's one game over the span of a 17-year career.  CC Sabathia was already a borderline Hall of Famer, and whether he ends his career with 290 wins or 289 (or whatever number) isn't going to determine whether or not he gets a plaque in Cooperstown.  (For the record, I think the Big Guy will get in eventually.)

There's also talk that CC could be the last guy to get to 300 wins, which has always been the magic number.  It's another sign of the times.  Every team has a deep bullpen, so they don't need their starters to go as deep into games.  And you have teams limiting innings and skipping starts, further limiting their opportunities.  That's why the 20-win season, long the indicator of pitching success, has also become a thing of the past (four pitchers are tied for the Major League lead with 17 wins, so we likely won't have one this season).

But, even if no one else does, starting pitchers still see the value in the win.  They only pitch once every five days.  They can only make an impact 35 times a season.  They want to make the most of it.  And the best way for a starting pitcher to help his team win is to pitch well enough to earn one himself.  And, if you think about it, in order for a pitcher to get a win, his team first has to win.  And the teams that win the most are the ones that end up in the playoffs.

One last point about starting pitchers and wins.  What's the first category listed under pitching leaders (and the first one that people look up)?  What's the stat that appears next to a pitcher's name on the day he pitches?  What's the stat most frequently tied to bonus thresholds in contracts (which agents are quick to point out)?  What's the one pitching category every fantasy baseball league, even the most basic ones, assigns the most weight to?

So, who gets the win might not matter to sabermetricians or managers.  But it matters a great deal to the men actually going out there and standing on the hill.  Try telling them that the winning pitcher is irrelevant.

Who gets the win is important.  Just like it always has been.  Just like it always will be.