Football's Back (AFC)

Ladies and Gentlemen, we've reached that time of the year.  Football season.  This week marked the final Sunday until February without NFL football.

In the NFL, the more things change, the more they stay the same.  The Patriots won the Super Bowl and might be even better this season.  The Texans have a ridiculous defense, but are very questionable on offense.  The Browns and Jets are a mess.  A lot of people think the Jaguars might actually be good, but they're probably going to be proven wrong pretty quickly.  And the AFC playoff teams will likely be the usual suspects, with the road to Minneapolis undoubtedly going through New England.

AFC East: Let's not kid ourselves into thinking things in the AFC East will be any different than they've been for the last 15 years.  If the Patriots are thinking about the regular season at all, they might be thinking about a second 16-0 run 10 years after their first.  Although, they also remember what happened in the Super Bowl after that undefeated regular season, so I'm sure a loss or two won't bother them too badly.  Their focus is on January and February.  New England enters the season as the clear favorites to become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since they did it in 2003-04.  And they should be.  Because this team has very few flaws.

If anybody has a chance of actually making the AFC East seem somewhat competitive, it's Miami.  The Dolphins were a playoff team last year, and a lot of people think they can return.  While I do think they'll be in the mix for a wild card, I think Miami will end up just out of the playoffs.  Probably 9-7.  The Bills have a new head coach in Sean McDermott, but he faces an uphill battle.  Don't count on Buffalo ending its playoff drought.  But at least they're not the Jets.  According to some Jets fans I know, this season will be different...because even they know they aren't any good and have committed themselves to a rebuilding year.

AFC North: It's easy to overlook the consistent of Ben Roethlisberger because he's a contemporary of Tom Brady.  But if not for the Patriots, the Steelers would almost certainly have won more than two titles during the Roethlisberger Era.  Will Pittsburgh beat New England this January?  If anyone's going to, they seem like the best candidate.  They've got that dynamic offense and a defense that I think is much improved.  They just need to avoid the random losses they always seem to suffer that result in their getting the 3-seed and having to play that extra playoff game, which is one of the things that cost them in last year's AFC Championship Game.

Baltimore and Cincinnati will both hang around the wild card race, with the Ravens more likely to snag a playoff berth.  Last year's 6-9-1 record snapped the Bengals' run of consecutive playoff seasons, and I think they'll miss out for the second straight year.  Frankly, I'm surprised Marvin Lewis is back in Cincinnati.  He's been very successful as the Bengals' coach, but it sure seems like it's time for a change.  The Cleveland Browns are also members of the AFC North.  Their biggest claim to fame entering the 2017 season was a typical Browns move.  For some reason, they took Brock Osweiler off Houston's hands, then released him and his $16 million contract without him ever taking a regular season snap for Cleveland.

AFC South: Tennessee is a chic pick in the AFC South, but I'm not completely sold on the Titans.  I do think they'll be in the mix and are definitely a potential wild card team, but those predictions are relying on a number of rookies to be this year's versions of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.  If the rookies do pan out and Marcus Mariota can stay healthy, that takes a big load off DeMarco Murray's shoulders.  And if Houston falters (and the Texans have plety of their own question marks), the Titans could sneak into an AFC South title at 9-7.

The Texans still have to be considered the favorites in the AFC South, though.  Yes, they are perhaps too reliant on their defense, but can you blame them?  The three best players on the team (J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, Brian Cushing) are all on the defensive side of the ball.  No, their offense isn't good enough to beat the Patriots or Steelers in January.  But is it good enough to beat the Titans, Colts and Jaguars twice each?  Yes.

Speaking of the Colts and Jaguars...if Indianapolis has any chance of finishing better than 6-10, they need a healthy Andrew Luck, which is by no means a certainty.  And Jacksonville, yet again, is being hyped as a team "on the rise."  But people have been saying that for how many years now?  I'll believe it when I see it.  With that being said, though, Tom Coughlin being back with the organization should make them slightly less bad.

AFC West: Last year we saw just how important Derek Carr is to the Oakland Raiders.  They looked like a potential Super Bowl team...until Carr broke his leg on Christmas Eve, and they ended up dropping into a wild card game, where they lost to Houston.  This season, they've added Marshawn Lynch.  If they give him enough Skittles, that's the missing piece that could put them over the top.

You can't overlook Kansas City, though.  The Chiefs were the main beneficiaries of the Raiders' fall, winning the division and getting a first round bye.  Although, they lost to Pittsburgh, so you know there's some motivation to get playoff redemption.  Especially since a third straight trip to the postseason appears likely.  They should battle the Raiders for the division title to the end once again.

Denver went from Super Bowl champions to out of the playoffs entirely, and the Broncos look destined to be a third-place team once again.  They simply aren't as good as the Raiders or Chiefs.  And they're probably the third- or fourth-best of the teams fighting for that other wild card.  The Chargers' return to Los Angeles will be bumpy to say the least.  Phillip Rivers deserves better.  Frankly, so does the team.  They wanted to stay in San Diego, but San Diego didn't want them.  At least they only moved two hours north...to become second fiddle behind another bad team, and play in a 30,000-seat soccer stadium.

My AFC playoff field is New England (East), Pittsburgh (North), Houston (South), Oakland (West), Kansas City and Tennessee (wild cards).  I've got the Raiders beating the Titans and the Chiefs beating the Texans in the wild card games.  Patriots over Chiefs and Raiders over Steelers in the divisional round, with New England making its seventh Super Bowl trip in the Bradicheck Era.