Football Picks, Week 1

Well, ladies and gentlemen, we've reached another football season.  And with that, the return of my weekly football picks.  For those of you who are new to this, I always lock in my picks prior to the Thursday night game, but I usually don't post them until Saturday night or early Sunday.  The exceptions are Week 1 and Thanksgiving.

And I don't care what the spread is.  The spread has nothing to do with the actual outcome of the game.  If a team covers the spread and loses, they still lost.  You don't make the playoffs because you covered the spread the most.  You make the playoffs because you won the most.  Which is why my picks are who I think will win the game, not whether or not I think the favorite will cover.

Before I get to the picks, that was 100 percent the right move to postpone the Dolphins-Bucs game.  Yes, it sucks that they'll have to play 16 weeks in a row (they'll become just the sixth and seventh teams since byes were created in 1990 not to have one).  But public safety is more important than a football game.  Just ask the Saints how devastating a Category 5 hurricane can be.

Chiefs at Patriots: New England-I'm aware of the fact this game has already started.  Doesn't matter.  I'd be picking the Patriots regardless.  Do you really think there's any chance the defending champs will lose that Thursday night opener with the banner going up?  Because I sure don't.  Especially since New England is probably better this year than they were last season.

Jets at Bills: Buffalo-Last year, the Jets actually won both games against the Bills, and one of them will be tied for first place after Week 1 (assuming they don't tie).  The Bills have a new head coach and a whole new system, but I'm not sure that makes them much better.  The Jets, however, we all know are going to stink.  This might be one of the few chances for each to win.  I'm going with the home team.

Falcons at Bears: Atlanta-This is Atlanta's first game since that Super Bowl debacle.  I'm very curious to see how that impacts their season (remember how badly the Panthers started last year?).  We could get an indication against the Bears.  Because the Falcons are a better team than Chicago and should easily win this game regardless.

Ravens at Bengals: Baltimore-The first of the two AFC North matchups is an interesting one.  They're both probably considered outside wild card contenders, which increases the importance on a Week 1 division game.  The Bengals actually requested a Week 1 home game because they usually end up starting on the road.  I don't know why I find that so fascinating, but I do.  Anyway, I think Cincinnati's time has passed.  Baltimore, however, could be on the way back, which is why I'm picking the Ravens.

Steelers at Browns: Pittsburgh-Pittsburgh's probably the best team in the AFC not based in New England.  Cleveland's probably the worst team in the NFL based anywhere.  If the Steelers do find a way to lose this one, they might as well all start looking for new teams to join on Monday.

Cardinals at Lions: Detroit-Does Arizona have one last playoff run in them during the Carson Palmer/Larry Fitzgerald Era?  Are the Lions capable of returning to the postseason?  This is one of the more intriguing Week 1 matchups, and that's primarily the reason why.  And once again, a Week 1 result could end up having a bearing on who's playing in January.  Detroit finally ditched all that ridiculous extraneous black on its uniform, and I like that, so I'm throwing the Lions a pick.

Raiders at Titans: Oakland-Derek Carr is back.  The Raiders are obviously a much better team with him under center.  One that can beat pretty much anybody.  A lot of people are high on the Titans, and even more will jump on that bandwagon if Tennessee wins the opener.  Oakland will also gain a lot of believers if they go into Nashville and win.  Which I think they will.

Eagles at Redskins: Washington-It's always a battle when the NFC East teams play each other, especially in Week 1.  Of course, the other two NFC East teams will probably be the ones fighting for the division title, but the Redskins and Eagles love to play spoilers.  As it is, one of them will probably have their own season spoiled right off the bat.  I think the Redskins are better than the Eagles, so I'm going with Washington.

Jaguars at Texans: Houston-When Harvey was pelting Houston, there were some questions about whether or not this game would be played.  Since it's a division game, moving it to Jacksonville was considered an option.  It's a good thing (for a number of reasons) that it didn't come to that.  The Texans are obviously the pick, but how about J.J. Watt and all the money he raised for the hurricane victims in the Houston area?  Incredible.  You might as well hand him the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award right now.

Colts at Rams: Rams-A significant player on each side will be sitting out in this tussle at the LA Coliseum.  The Colts are without the oft-injured Andrew Luck, who won't get a chance to relive those Stanford vs. USC games.  The Rams, meanwhile, don't have their best defensive player, as Aaron Donald continues to hold out (maybe he thinks those white ram horns on the helmet are as ugly as I do?).  Anyway, that loss is easier for the Rams to absorb than it will be for Indy to adjust to Scott Tolzein at quarterback.

Seahawks at Packers: Green Bay-These two meet at Lambeau for the third consecutive season and FOX wisely made it the national late game.  The home team has actually won the last six games in this series, which makes sense, seeing how good they both are at home.  Green Bay's got a Super Bowl in its sights, and they can't afford a home loss to the Seahawks, especially since they'll likely both be in the playoff mix and that would give Seattle the tiebreaker.  Another example of the long-term importance of Week 1.  Mike McCarthy knows how important this one is.  And he won't let his team forget it.

Panthers at 49ers: Carolina-Yeah, I don't really have much to say about this one.  Now that they rid themselves of Colin Kaepernick (I forgot who it was that said it, but it was a player, and he was spot on.  Kaepernick's not good enough to be this annoying.  That's why teams don't want to sign him), the 49ers are simply just an irrelevant bad team.  One that Cam and Co. should have no issues with.

Giants at Cowboys: Giants-If there's one team that has Dallas' number, it's the New York Football Giants.  The Cowboys lost three regular season games last year...two of them to the Giants.  So, as these two get ready for their annual Week 1 Sunday night tilt in Dallas (third year in a row, fourth time in five years), you can't be blamed for thinking it'll be more of the same.  Although, we already know Ezekiel Elliott is going to play.  What we don't know is whether or not Odell Beckham, Jr., will.  If he doesn't, that definitely favors the Cowboys.

Saints at Vikings: Minnesota-Our first Monday night game is the Adrian Peterson Bowl, as the Saints' new running back returns to face the team he accumulated so many rushing yards for.  I'm actually curious to see what a Peterson-less Vikings will look like.  They've been so run-heavy for so long.  Peterson, meanwhile, went to a pass-heavy team that likes to score a lot of points.  Where has it gotten them in recent years, though?  I think Minnesota's defense will stop them enough to get the win.

Chargers at Broncos: Denver-Finally, we have the first game for the LOS ANGELES Chargers (God, that still looks weird) since their inaugural season, as they visit Brock Osweiler and the Denver Broncos.  Denver's better than last year's team that missed the playoffs.  No, they're not the Super Bowl-winning Broncos of two years ago.  But that defense is still awesome.  I predict three sacks for Von Miller in a Denver victory.