So...the NHL threw a bit of a wrench into things by having Game 1 of Islanders-Lightning before Game 7 of Ducks-Predators. We're used to seeing this in the NBA, but the NHL never overlaps rounds. In fact, this is the first time they did it since 1983.
This year's playoffs have already broken form from recent seasons. The Kings won't win the Cup. Neither will the Blackhawks. They've alternated championships over the past four years, with Chicago winning in the odds and LA the evens. But neither one even reached the second round this season. We also saw the Giants-Patriots Super Bowl cycle snapped, so, sorry San Francisco Giants fans, it looks like your team won't be getting its even-year World Series win.
We also won't have our traditional Rangers-Capitals playoff series. After playing 17 straight postseason games against the Rangers over the last three years, the Penguins finally beat them in a playoff series and have moved on to the marquee second-round matchup against the Capitals. Those were the two best teams in the NHL at the end of the season, and they were the two best teams in the first round. I think the winner of that series will win the Cup.
Pittsburgh-Washington also exposes the flaws of the current playoff system. The Penguins had the second-most points in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, yet they played the Rangers, the fourth-best team in the East, in the first round, guaranteeing that one of them had to be eliminated. Now they'll play the Capitals, who had the best record in the NHL. So, there's no chance that the two best teams can play in the conference finals. Instead, they'll play in the conference semis, while the winner of the No. 5 New York Islanders vs. No. 6 Tampa Bay will get the other spot.
My solution to this problem is incredibly simple. You go back to the old way. The playoff system that they used prior to the realignment and the wild cards. The division winners get the top two seeds, but the other six teams are seeded based on their point totals, not their finish in the division. (That would've made the matchups: Washington-Detroit, Florida-Philadelphia, Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay, Rangers-Islanders, Dallas-Minnesota, Anaheim-Nashville, St. Louis-San Jose and Chicago-Los Angeles.) That way, Pittsburgh wouldn't have been effectively penalized for finishing second in the strong Met Division (which had five playoff teams) behind the best team in the league. (When the NBA did this I was somewhat critical, but it actually does make a lot of sense.)
Capitals-Penguins: Since I've been talking about Pittsburgh-Washington, it makes sense to start there. Other than Washington's little hiccup after they went up 3-0, these two had relatively easy, dominant wins over the Flyers and Rangers. Things will probably be a little more competitive in round two. These have been the two best teams in the league for about two months now, and they're incredibly evenly-matched. Except there is the one thing that gives Washington the slight edge, and it's the same thing I always point to as an X-factor: goaltending. The Capitals have the likely Vezina Trophy winner Braden Holtby, who tied Martin Brodeur's NHL record for wins this season. Pittsburgh went through two different backup goalies during the Rangers series. Against a beaten-up, overmatched Rangers team, they were able to get away with that. Against Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom and all their friends, they won't. Washington has been on a mission ever since blowing that 3-1 lead against the Rangers last season. They won't let that happen again. That home-ice advantage is going to end up paying huge dividends. Because I see this going seven. Capitals in seven.
Lightning-Islanders: It's a good time to be my brother-in-law. He likes both of those orange & blue Long Island teams. The Mets made the World Series, and now the Islanders have won a playoff series for the first time in 23 years. And, I do need to say it, John Tavares is an absolute freakin stud! The back-to-back double overtime games didn't seem to slow the Islanders down at all in Game 1, and the win in Game 6 especially had to leave them feeling good heading into this series. I think Tampa Bay is better than Florida, and the Lightning are the defending Eastern Conference champions. But the Islanders probably don't care. They positioned themselves well and could easily pull off the Florida sweep en route to the Eastern Conference Finals. (As I said prior to the first round, both the Rangers and Islanders preferred the Panther matchup to the Penguin matchup. And most of my friends who are Islanders fans agree that the results would've been the same if the New York teams had swapped opponents. The Rangers would've beaten the Panthers, and the Penguins still would've dominated against the Islanders.) With the way the bracket's set up, I don't blame them for trying to flip divisions for the postseason. It worked against the Panthers, and it could easily work against the Lightning. The way the Islanders are playing, I'm not going to go against them. Islanders in six.
Stars-Blues: Congratulations to the St. Louis Blues. They finally got that massive monkey off their back and finally won a playoff series. In seven. Against the Blackhawks. Especially after letting Chicago back in the series after going up 3-1, I thought the Blues would give us one of their trademarked first-round collapses. But they pulled out the Game 7 win, which was a major hurdle for them to overcome. Now they get a ridiculously good Dallas Stars team. I didn't see them much during the regular season so I didn't realize it, but the Stars are ubertalented. They were just as impressive as anybody in holding off the Wild. This is the hardest series to call. I can really see it going either way. Neither team has really been in this position before, which further complicates matters. Getting off to a good start is going to be key. If St. Louis grabs one of those first two games in Dallas, I really like the Blues. If the Stars hold serve at home, that puts the pressure on St. Louis in Game 3. I said to a friend of mine earlier today, "Watch the West Finals be St. Louis-San Jose. That way one of them will have to find a way NOT to piss away a playoff series...then probably end up like the Canucks and lose in Game 7 of the Cup Final." Anyway, in order to be in that position, St. Louis needs to beat Dallas first. I see lots of one-goal games and lots of overtimes, but I also see the Blues prevailing. They were separated by only two points for a reason. (For all the complaining I did about Capitals-Penguins in the second round, it's the same thing out West, where these two had the two best records.) Blues in six.
Sharks-Predators: Just like the Islanders are spending some quality time with the State of Florida this postseason, the Predators must have a similar affinity for California. Nashville-Anaheim was a very strange series. The Predators won the first two on the road, then lost the next three, only to win Games 6 and 7 (on the road). Three of Nashville's four wins in the series came in Anaheim, so those late start times clearly didn't have much of an effect. And they'll stay out there before Game 1, which means the travel should have no bearing on the first two games. As for the Sharks, they're in such a similar position as the Blues. San Jose's playoff history consists mainly of lost opportunities and disappointment. So, yes, it was big for them to finally beat the Kings. Will this finally be the year the Sharks put it all together in the playoffs? It's really starting to look like that. Except the Predators will have something to say about that. As they said before Game 7 against Anaheim, people HAVE to watch them now. Well, what they saw was another team that's on the verge of something big. If there's a team that can spoil the Sharks' party, it's the Predators. The Sharks will need to be on their game to knock off a hungry Nashville team that has already won the first Game 7 in franchise history. But maybe being viewed as the underdog will be a good thing for them. No expectations=less disappointment. The Predators' second Game 7 could come two weeks after their first. Except I don't see them winning both. The Sharks in the conference finals? Say it ain't so! Sharks in seven.
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