When the IOC announced that there would no longer be a 28-sport cap and Olympic hosts were free to propose sports/events for their specific Games, starting with Tokyo 2020, everyone knew that it was inevitable the Japanese would push for the reintroduction of baseball and softball to the Olympic program. So it came as no surprise that baseball/softball (it's a combined bid from the international federation that governs both sports) was included on the list of sports that Tokyo 2020 has proposed for inclusion. The others are a little more surprising. Skateboarding, surfing, sport climbing and karate, but no squash.
Now, I love that the IOC has eliminated the 28-sport cap. It seemed incredibly arbitrary, and, since the only way for a new sport to be added was for another to be eliminated, it was the source of a lot of controversy. Hence the great wrestling debacle. This new rule keeps the Olympics fresh and relevant without sports having to pay the ultimate price (Olympic status) simply because they aren't popular enough on TV.
However, I have problems with this new method, too. The main one being that you're proposing sports only for your Olympics. So, if any of these are added for 2020, they could just as easily be gone by 2024. Baseball and softball are the prime example of this. If the 2024 Games go to Los Angeles, there's no question they'd stay on the program. But that's the only guarantee. They'd probably be safe with Rome or Hamburg, but do you really think the organizers of the Paris and Budapest bids have any interest in holding an Olympic baseball tournament?
Once a sport's in the Olympics, it should be in the Olympics. That's it. There are 25 "core" sports that have nothing to worry about. They're guaranteed to be on the Olympic program. Rugby and golf are guaranteed at least Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020, but is there any doubt they're now permanent Olympic fixtures? Same thing with wrestling. When it was reinstated, it was technically just for 2020 and 2024. But seeing as wrestling never should've been dropped from the Olympics in the first place, there's no way they're ever going to try removing it again.
Anyway, my whole point here is that baseball and softball are the favorites to be brought back in Tokyo, but what's the point if it's only for one Olympics? How would that be any less damaging to the sports than when they were dropped in 2005? In fact, it would probably be worse. They're already the first sports to be cut from the Olympic program in more than half a century. No sport has ever been cut twice. Yet I have a feeling that's exactly what will happen with baseball and softball if they don't put some sort of provision in that says the added sport must be included in at least two consecutive Olympics.
With all that being said, however, I'm glad baseball and softball will likely be returning to the Olympics, at least for Tokyo 2020. This rule change was made after Tokyo was awarded the Games, and many think the reason why was so that the door could be opened for baseball and softball to be brought back, especially since there are plenty of people who think it was a mistake to drop them in the first place. Remember, it was by no means unanimous to eliminate them. The vote in 2005 was close, and baseball/softball both almost made the cut (as separate sports) when they added rugby and golf for Rio and again (as a combined bid) when wrestling was kept on the program for Tokyo.
So, yeah, I'm fairly confident baseball and softball will be played at the Tokyo Olympics. Baseball is Japan's national sport, they won the first two World Baseball Classics, and the Japanese Major Leagues are the second-best in the world. And they obviously wouldn't need to build a venue. The Yomiuri Giants, Japan's version of the Yankees, play at the Tokyo Dome. No, Major Leaguers won't be there, but the Japanese pros will, and so will (presumably) the Cuban National Team. That's enough.
While baseball doesn't need the Olympics and vice-versa, softball does need the Olympics, and it was softball that felt the blow of the 2005 decision more deeply. Baseball players have the Major Leagues and the World Series. Softball players had the Olympic gold medal as their ultimate. Then that was taken away. And let's not forget, the United States won the first three Olympic softball gold medals, but the defending champions are? Japan!
As for the other sports, they're an obvious attempt to make the Olympics "appeal more to youth." Surfing makes very little sense to me. Only a handful of countries are capable of being good at it, and I can't see any Olympics in Europe including surfing. Likewise, I doubt there would be need for a "surf park," which can apparently work as a venue in lieu of the ocean (I'm not sure how).
Same thing with skateboarding. It's technically listed as "roller sports," but roller speed skating and roller figure skating weren't included in the proposal. Just skateboarding. Skateboarding, which has its own international federation (two in fact), was listed as "roller sports," while speed skating and figure skating, both of which actually require the use of roller skates, aren't? Please!
They're obviously looking at it in the same way as BMX, but, and it might just be me, I just don't see skateboarding in the Olympics. The X-Games athlete and fan is an entirely different demographic than the Olympic fan. I know the IOC is trying to change that perception, but I'm not sure it would be the mutually-beneficial relationship everything thinks it would.
Sport climbing, on the other hand, would be a really cool addition. There's nothing like it currently in the Olympics. It's been in both editions of the Youth Olympics and was a big hit. You've all seen (and probably tried) the rock climbing wall at your gym. That's all you would need to set up. They've proposed two different events: speed (think "The Wall" from American Gladiators) and bouldering (which is the type where you don't use a rope). Sport climbing has been included on finalist lists of proposed Olympic sports before, and it would be a fun addition to the program. It's also one I could see sticking around.
Like baseball/softball, karate seemed likely to make the cut. It's included in pretty much all of the continental Games and is native to Japan. But do we really need another martial art? There's already judo and taekwondo, and you've also got the combat sports of boxing and wrestling.
Squash, bowling and something called wushu didn't make the cut. That's another tough blow for squash, which has come so close to Olympic inclusion too many times to count now. Every time squash seems like it's on the cusp of being added to the Games, it once again isn't, leaving the International Squash Federation wondering what they have to do to make Olympic organizers change their minds.
The other five sports now move on to the final IOC vote during the Rio Games. It's possible that they could decide none of them will be added, but I think we all know that's unlikely. It's also possible they add all five, increasing the total number of events by 18, although that also seems unlikely. My guess is that baseball/softball and one or two of the others will be added to the Olympics for Tokyo 2020. Beyond that, though, who knows?
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