Football season is here! And we all again know what we'll be doing on Sunday afternoons for the next five months. The Road to Super Bowl 50 starts in Foxboro, and the Patriots don't show any signs of letting up. In fact, the teams that have dominated the AFC over the past couple seasons all look like they might be headed back to the playoffs. So much for parity in the NFL!
We've reached the Giants-Patriots year in the cycle, but I don't think there's a single person out there who thinks that will actually be the Super Bowl matchup. More on the Giants and the rest of the NFC next time, but it certainly looks more likely that the Patriots will be playing in February than the Giants. Are they the AFC favorites, though? That's a totally different question.
New England will be there just like they always are, but the top teams in the AFC are all very good. This might be Peyton Manning's final season (I think it will be). Will he ride off into the sunset hoisting the Lombardi Trophy like another legendary Denver quarterback? Will Peyton's successor in Indianapolis, who's gone a round further in the playoffs each season, continue that trend all the way to Santa Clara? Who's going to win the AFC North, the best division in football?
AFC East: Until Bradicheck retires and/or the other three teams in the AFC East get significantly better, you can just put the Patriots down for at least 11 wins and a division title. If the Brady suspension had stood, I'd say maybe there's a chance the Patriots could face some competition for the division. But since he'll be playing all 16 games, I don't see that happening. As if they needed one, the Commissioner gave the defending champions a chip on their shoulder. The Dolphins and Bills have both gotten better. Just not enough to challenge New England. With Miami's upgraded defense, Ryan Tannehill's continued development, and the Rock's help (wait, that's just on Ballers), I actually do think the Dolphins will be in the mix for a wild card. And while I ridiculed it at first, the Rex Ryan hiring actually looks like it was a really smart thing for the Bills. Buffalo's always had a good defense. Now it's going to be even better. The offense still needs work, but Rex did go to consecutive AFC Championship Games with Mark Sanchez at quarterback and not much else. I don't see the Bills' playoff drought ending this season, but they'll give some good teams fits, and 8-8/9-7 isn't out of the question. The Jets are also going to be better, and they've got Darrelle Revis back. Give them a year or two to get past their own Rex Ryan Era.
AFC North: You could pull a name out of a hat to choose your AFC North champion and you'd have as good a chance of being right as any of the experts. This division sent three teams to the playoffs last season and could easily do so again. I think my pick for the division winner, though, is Baltimore. The Ravens have always had the defense, and this year I think they'll be improved offensively, too. It really is the slightest of margins between the Ravens and the rival Steelers, though. Pittsburgh has more firepower and won the division last year, but that's exactly why I don't think the Steelers will win it again. Since they finished first, they have to play New England and Indianapolis, while the Ravens (who finished third last season), get the Dolphins and Jaguars in addition to the AFC West. That's at least one additional win for Baltimore on paper, and that might make the difference. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has quietly built itself into a playoff contender year-in and year-out. Some say this is Marvin Lewis' best Bengals team, and it better be. Because another playoff loss, or not making it entirely, could be his ticket out of Cincinnati at the end of the year. I really feel bad for the Browns. They got new uniforms that make them look like a college team, and they're stuck playing in this division. In any other division, Cleveland could be a sleeper playoff pick. But in the AFC North, they're the fourth-best team.
AFC South: Except for the Peyton-Luck transition year, this has been the Indianapolis Colts' domain since the division was formed in 2002. That shouldn't change this season. If it's possible, the Colts are even better than last year's squad that went to the AFC Championship Game (and started the whole Deflategate mess). They aren't thinking about winning the AFC South. They're thinking about the Super Bowl. Houston will easily finish second and will fight for a wild card. They have the best defensive player in the game in J.J. Watt, and he's got plenty of friends (Jadeveon Clowney?) to keep that defense fierce. The problem is on offense. Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet are your quarterbacks? Really?! They're not challenging the Colts for the division title. Fortunately for the Texans, Tennessee and Jacksonville are still in the AFC South. Which one is less bad? I'll say the Titans. I think Marcus Mariota is going to be a very good NFL quarterback. At the very least, he'll make the Tennessee offense better and more fun to watch. And who knows? Maybe he'll have an RG3-like rookie season and lead the Titans to the playoffs. As far as I know, the Jaguars are still technically an NFL team. How they've managed to avoid the No. 1 pick over the past couple years amazes me.
AFC West: Denver got so used to winning in its first three seasons with Peyton Manning that John Fox was fired after losing to Indianapolis in the Divisional Playoffs (with an injured Manning). So are the expectations Gary Kubiak walks into. Anything less than a trip to Santa Clara for the Super Bowl's golden anniversary will be a disappointment for a franchise that desperately wants more to represent the Manning Era than a blowout loss in its only Super Bowl appearance. They also know the window is closing, so they did everything they could to give Peyton what he needs to succeed. Winning the division shouldn't be a problem. It's what happens in January that will determine whether or not the Broncos' 2015 season is considered a success. Andy Reid, meanwhile, is one of the underrated great coaches in the game. Kansas City's done nothing but win in his two years there. As he keeps adding players that brought him so much success in Philadelphia, Jeremy Maclin can do it all, and that addition alone could be enough to get the Chiefs back to the playoffs. San Diego's that team nobody wants to play, but you also know won't be sticking around come January. As for the Chargers' LA stadium buddies, the Raiders, things won't be getting any better until they get an actual offense/quarterback. Hiring Jack Del Rio as head coach was a huge positive step, but they need a lot more before they'll be contenders again. It might not happen until they're back in LA.
So, my division winners will look awfully familiar. New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis and Denver. It's the last four teams standing in the AFC from last season. They haven't gotten any worse, so it's up to everybody else to catch them. As for the wild cards, I think five teams will challenge for the two spots: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City and Miami. And when all is said and done, the Steelers and Chiefs will join the four division winners in the playoffs.
All of the top teams in the AFC are evenly-matched, and they know each other so well. The Patriots aren't going to give up their crown that easy. Somebody's gonna have to take it from them. But I don't think New England's as good as they were a year ago, either. I'm saying it's Baltimore vs. Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game, with the Colts heading to the Super Bowl.
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