Even though there's two weeks left in the regular season, Major League Baseball's playoff picture is becoming more and more clear. Especially in the National League, where the five teams have been set for like a month now. (No need to freak out Mets fans, you don't have the 2007-08 Phillies on your tail, you're not gonna blow it this time.)
But just because we know the teams, there are still plenty of questions that need to be asked and answered before the wonderfulness of October baseball gets underway. Most of them involving pitching. Everybody needs to figure out their rotations, while the makeup of the bullpens could make the difference between losing the Division Series (cough, Tigers, cough) and getting to the World Series (Royals).
Let's start with the inevitable NL Wild Card Game matchup between the Cubs and the Pirates. Chicago has arguably the National League's best pitcher over the second half in Jake Arrieta. But they also spent a lot of money on Jon Lester in the offseason basically for this moment. Lester's won a World Series in Boston and started last year's AL Wild Card Game for Oakland. At least they have the "problem" of choosing between their two aces, but what if they're not a position to use either (which seems unlikely given the standings)? Same thing with Pittsburgh. Do they line up Gerrit Cole, their best pitcher overall, or Francisco Liriano, their best pitcher recently, to start the one-game playoff?
It's a worthwhile question. Because not only are you choosing your starter for the Wild Card Game, you're choosing which starter would pitch twice in the Division Series. That's a decision the Dodgers have to make, too. I'm sure it doesn't really make a difference to LA if Greinke or Kershaw starts Game 1 against the Mets, but they made the wrong decision against the Cardinals two years in a row and paid for it. (Personally, I'd start Greinke in Game 1 and Kershaw in Game 2, but where they are in their rotation might have a lot to do with it.) The Dodgers' real problem, though, is who's going to be their third starter? And do they only use three so that Greinke and Kershaw can both possibly start twice (leaving neither available for Game 1 of the NLCS)?
As for the Dodgers' opponent, the Mets have a problem that every team would love to have. They currently use a six-man rotation. They have to cut it down to four. Maybe the Matt Harvey innings thing (which is a situation I'm sure they didn't expect themselves to be in when Harvey was going eight innings in April) will solve this problem for them. But Harvey says he's ready to go for the postseason and Terry Collins has said he'll make at least one start, so that means he's in for the Division Series. You'd have to think Jacob de Grom, the Mets' second-best pitcher, is a lock, too. So is Bartolo Colon. He's developed a cult following and is the only Mets starter with playoff experience. Have to use him. So, that leaves Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Jon Niese for one rotation spot. It's probably safe to say Niese is headed to the bullpen. The choice between Syndergaard and Matz isn't an easy one, but Syndergaard has proven himself all year, so you'd figure he'll get the opportunity.
Whoever gets home field for the Mets-Dodgers series could dictate a lot of things, too. Greinke and Kershaw are starting Games 1 & 2 in whatever order. Whether they're at Dodger Stadium or Citi Field doesn't matter. But for the Mets, that could be huge. Knowing that neither is pitching Game 3, do you hold Harvey back in case you're down 0-2? Likewise, Syndergaard is a much better pitcher at home. Do you set it up for him to pitch in Citi Field? If they end up tied, the Mets get home field since they won the season series 4-3. But if the Dodgers do get home field, I'd set up the Mets rotation like this: Games 1/5-Colon, Game 2-de Grom, Game 3-Harvey, Game 4-Syndergaard. If the series starts in New York, though, I'd go: Games 1/5-de Grom, Game 2-Syndergaard, Game 3-Harvey, Game 4-Colon.
Over in the American League, things are a little more unsettled. I'm confident in saying the Royals, Blue Jays and Yankees are in, but I've got no idea what's gonna happen in the AL West. If Houston ends up in the Wild Card Game, you'd assume they want Dallas Keuchel to start it if possible. Same thing with the Rangers and Cole Hamels. That's the reason they got him. Minnesota and the Angels, though? Beats me.
I say Houston would like to start Keuchel and Texas would like to start Hamels with the caveat that only one of them is going to end up in the Wild Card Game. And this division's gonna go down to the last day, so neither one will be able to hold a pitcher back for the potential one-game playoff. Should it get to the situation that Keuchel and Hamels are both unavailable, Houston would probably be in better shape for the Wild Card Game since they could start either Collin McHugh or Scott Kazmir. If Texas goes into Yankee Stadium with somebody other than Cole Hamels pitching, they'd better hope their hitters bring their bats.
The Yankees, of course, would prefer to have Masahiro Tanaka start the Wild Card Game (or, at the very worst, Michael Pineda). But Tanaka's missing his start on Wednesday in Toronto because he strained his hamstring running the bases on Friday. For the Yankees, it would almost be a good thing if the Blue Jays clinch the division earlier. That way they can set up Tanaka to pitch in the Wild Card Game, even if it means skipping his final regular-season start. And if the Yankees do win the Wild Card Game, the rotation for the Division Series seems to have settled itself out: Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia and Severino.
Toronto, meanwhile, has a similar problem to the Yankees' crosstown neighbors. After David Price, who are their starters going to be? Assuming Drew Hutchison (who started on Opening Day, mind you) gets sent to the bullpen, they still have to choose three of their remaining four starters. Toronto loves Marcus Stroman, but he only just came back from a torn ACL and will have made about five starts before the postseason. He's looked great so far (but what Blue Jays pitcher hasn't looked great against the Yankees this season?), but, as much as you love him, how much can you count on Stroman to start in the playoffs? The Blue Jays have shrewdly kept Mark Buehrle from pitching against the Yankees this year, so I haven't seen that much of him, but he won a ring with the White Sox and is one of the few players on that team with any playoff experience. I say you've gotta start him. I'd leave Game 4 as TBA between R.A. Dickey and Marco Estrada, but if I were John Gibbons, I'd be leaning towards Estrada making that start. That also leaves open the possibility of Price on three-days' rest if need-be.
Two weeks is a lot of time in a baseball season. A lot can still change. And a lot of this stuff will probably sort itself out as divisions are clinched and teams set themselves up for the postseason. Hopefully not, but an injury may derail plans, too.
All I know is that if I'm this excited for playoff baseball now, imagine how I'll be come October!
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