After the first round of the Women's World Cup, there are still a lot of questions about the top teams. The U.S. won the "Group of Death," but didn't look particularly sharp in doing so. Germany advanced as group winners, but as Alexei Lalas said, they've really only played one real game so far, and that was a draw with Norway. Sweden has been so lackluster that they were lucky third-place teams qualified, and even that was in doubt until the end. France lost to Colombia. The only two teams that won all three of their games were Japan and Brazil, but even those come with an asterisk. Japan has probably looked the best of any team so far, but Cameroon came awfully close to earning a point against the reigning champs. Brazil, meanwhile, came out of the weakest group, so they didn't need to play that well to win three games.
It's also clear that while the 24-team field was a good idea and tournament expansion was necessary, not all of the extra eight teams belonged there. Germany vs. Ivory Coast? That was like any first-round game the UConn women play in the NCAA Tournament. And the fact that Thailand and the Ivory Coast were in the same group was an absolute joke! Same thing with Ecuador and pretty much everyone in Brazil's group. There are more than 16 teams good enough to be in the World Cup. Problem is, there aren't 24. Not yet. This was definitely good for the growth of the women's game, though, so I can easily find the positive in teams like Ivory Coast and Thailand getting to play on the world stage, even if it is as Germany or Japan's homecoming opponent.
Speaking of homecoming, it's pretty obvious that the bracket for the knockout round was designed to get Canada as far into the tournament as possible. All of the top teams are on the other side and the Canadians don't even have to travel. Both their round of 16 and quarterfinal games are in Vancouver, which happens to be where the Canadian training camp is. It'll be a shock to pretty much everyone if Canada doesn't make it to at least the semifinals, despite the fact that Canada hasn't been one of the better teams in this tournament so far. Not even close.
Since Canada doesn't have to face any of the top teams until the semis, that means they all have to play each other. Now that the third-place teams have all been filled in and we know what the bracket actually looks like, breaking down the knockout round has become a whole lot easier. Canada and the United States definitely have the easiest roads to the semis, which was obviously on purpose. (At least it was for Canada, the rest of the draw was blind.) Meanwhile, you've got three top five teams (Germany, France and Sweden) in the same quarter, and a potential Japan-Brazil quarterfinal matchup. This is normally when the World Cup starts to get good, and this year shouldn't be an exception.
One of the things that contributed to this bracket being so confusing was that the matches aren't being played in order according to the game numbers, and that the advancing teams won't have the same amount of rest heading into the next round. For example, the U.S. plays on Monday, then meets the winner of China-Cameroon in the quarters, and China-Cameroon is on Saturday! You've also got teams crisscrossing across the country (which is rather large), so the advantage has to lie with teams that have less travel. (One of the analysts made a great point about the Americans' semifinal loss to Germany in 2003, which was played in Portland after the U.S. played a quarterfinal in Boston.)
Rather than going in schedule-order, I think it's less confusing to go in bracket order. First up, we've got China-Cameroon. Cameroon has been one of the biggest surprises of this World Cup, and a pleasant one. They beat up on a weak Ecuador team, then gave Japan all they could handle before knocking off a Swiss team many felt would win, Now they face China in one of the most even matchups of the second round. China didn't look that good in group play, but did what they needed to in order to advance. The game's being played in Edmonton, where they've both already played during this World Cup, so that shouldn't be a factor. Cameroon just played there, though, so they're not traveling. I actually like Cameroon in this game I think.
The winner of that one plays either the USA or Colombia. Colombia was riding high after that win over France, but then lost to England and dropped to third place in Group F. The U.S. has been criticized for not being U.S.-like in group play, but that shouldn't matter yet. They're better than Colombia and should have no trouble in this one. Especially since Colombia's goalie (who's been fantastic) has to miss the game with a yellow-card suspension. That will be too much for Colombia to overcome.
In the next quarter, we've got No. 1 Germany against No. 5 Sweden, with the winner facing No. 3 France. France-South Korea is easier to break down, so we'll start there. The Colombia game was a wake-up call for Les Bleues. At least they got their bad game out of the way in group play. And you saw what they did to Mexico in the next game. South Korea was the "best" of three weak teams in Brazil's group, so I don't envision the French having any trouble in the round of 16.
Germany-Sweden, meanwhile, is the matchup of the second round. The Germans have 15 goals, four more than the next-highest scoring team in the tournament, but 10 of those were against Ivory Coast and they had four against Thailand. In their one game that wasn't a glorified practice, they played a 1-1 draw against Norway. Fortunately for Germany, this Sweden team is not the Sweden you're used to seeing. They haven't lost yet, but they certainly haven't played like the fifth-best team in the world, and they only advanced as the fourth-best third-place team. They'll obviously need to play their best game of the tournament to beat the Germans, and even that might not be enough.
Moving to the bottom half of the draw, Brazil meets surprising Australia in what should also be a highly entertaining game. The Matildas probably gained a bunch of confidence by finishing second in a group that included the U.S. and Sweden, but this is a tough matchup for them. As I said, Brazil hasn't really played that well yet. But they didn't need to. And, by clinching the group after two games, they were able to rest Marta and Cristiane against Costa Rica. That'll pay off later in the tournament. Australia will give them a game, but Brazil is too talented.
Defending champion Japan gets the Netherlands, which, along with Cameroon, was one of only two third-place teams to get four points in group play. Group A was competitive, but none of those three teams are the caliber of the Japanese. If I had to pick the best team in the group round, it would probably be Japan, followed by Germany and Brazil. It's unfortunate that Japan and Brazil will meet in the quarters instead of a later round.
We've got an all-European affair between Norway and England for the right to meet Canada. Norway was on a mission after failing to get out of the group round in 2011, and I think they succeeded. In my opinion, they're probably the strongest of the second-place sides. All credit to England, too, for getting that win over Colombia to grab second place when it looked like they might not even qualify for the second round. I anticipate this being one of the better round of 16 games, but I think Norway is a little stronger. They easily could've beaten Germany if a couple things had gone their way in that game. Norway could also interrupt Canada's plans on an easy road to the semis.
Then there are our friendly Canadian hosts. They won the opener on a controversial late penalty kick, then had a pair of ties against New Zealand and the Netherlands. That was enough for Canada to win the group and get a favorable path, though. The first challenge is Switzerland, which rode that 10-0 victory over Ecuador into the second round. I think the Swiss will present a challenge and Canada will definitely have to bring it. Switzerland had its 10-goal game in Vancouver, which is where this one will take place, but they've also been outscored 3-1 when not playing Ecuador. I think with the home crowd behind them, the Canadians do what they need to do in order to come up with a one-goal win.
So, to recap, my quarterfinal matchups are the USA vs. Cameroon, Germany-France, Japan-Brazil and Canada vs. Norway. If those do end up being the four quarterfinals, I like USA-Germany and Canada-Japan in the semis, but I'd be very surprised if I go 8-for-8 in the round of 16. As I said, this is generally when World Cups get good.
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