Who said Blackhawks-Lighting when the playoffs started six weeks ago? Oh, that's right. This guy! While the route here wasn't quite what I expected, this was the matchup I envisioned back in mid-April. Chicago is always a safe pick. They're built for the postseason (and it is their turn in the rotation). Tampa Bay, meanwhile, was a nightmare matchup for all of the top teams in the East. And, sure enough, the Lighting went and knocked off both the Canadiens and Rangers to get to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in franchise history.
I was, of course, rooting for the Rangers against the Lightning, but I knew it would be tough for them to beat Tampa Bay four times in seven games. In fact, I'm surprised it went the full seven. Henrik Lundqvist can't score, so the skaters needed to help him out just a little bit. And it came out after the series that like half the team was injured. Ryan McDonogh was playing with a broken foot for the last four games. That, and the Lightning have completely owned the Rangers for like the last three seasons.
What surprised me more than the fact it went seven, though, was how it went seven. The Rangers won Game 1 by the official New York Rangers playoff score of 2-1, then gave up six goals in each of the next two games. Tampa Bay likes to outscore teams, and I said after Game 3 that the Rangers weren't going to win playing the Lightning's game. Then they go and score five goals while winning Game 4, only to get shut out 2-0 in Game 5. Back in Tampa, the Rangers score seven, then the Lightning clinch the series with another 2-0 shutout. The series was the exact opposite of what you would've expected. The Rangers scored a bunch and the Lightning won the low-scoring, grind-it-out, defensive battles. That new-found strong defense could serve Tampa Bay well against Chicago.
Speaking of Chicago, how entertaining were the Western Conference Finals? A back-and-forth series between two good, evenly-matched teams. You had a couple overtime games, including the longest game in Blackhawks history, big comebacks, clutch goaltending. The series really had it all. But in the end, the Blackhawks proved why they go deep into the playoffs every year. Down 3-2 in the series, they dominated Game 6 at home before getting that early lead in Game 7 and cruising to another date with Lord Stanley's Cup. Anaheim lost another home Game 7, but you can't really say the Ducks choked or could've done anything differently. That's a compliment to the Blackhawks, who are turning into the New England Patriots of hockey.
So now we have a matchup between two teams that are remarkably similar. They've both got the star players and are capable of scoring in bunches. Tampa Bay was the highest-scoring team in the league this season, and you'd have to think that Tyler Johnson is probably their leading candidate for the Conn Smythe right now (although Ben Bishop is making a pretty good case, too). The key for the Lightning is keeping all of the forwards involved. In the four games they won against the Rangers, everyone contributed. When the Rangers were able to shut down Stamkos or Filpulla or Callahan or whoever, that's when they were able to win.
For the Blackhawks, the usual suspects are all doing what we normally see them do. Toews had the series-winner in Game 7. Kane looks fine after missing the last two months of the regular season. Sharp, Saad and Hossa are all doing their part. Shaw has more soccer headers than anyone else in the playoffs. And, most importantly, Brad Richards has worked himself in perfectly. If there's one thing the Blackhawks were missing last season, it's what Brad Richards has given them this year. (It's worth noting here that Richards won the Conn Smyte Trophy during Tampa Bay's Cup run in 2004.)
Chicago's also got that incredibly strong defense, but will playing only four defensemen for the last six weeks (they've played four multiple-overtime games this playoffs) eventually come back to bite them? The Lightning play seven defensemen and had two shutouts over the final three games against the Rangers. But how much of that was the defense and how much was the Rangers' ineptitude on offense? I think it was a combination of both, but I think someone else deserves a lot of credit for that, too.
Ben Bishop has been the X-factor for the Lightning this year. Last season, they had the No. 2 seed in the Atlantic Division, but Bishop was injured and they were swept by Montreal in the first round. What a difference a year, and a healthy goalie, can make! Bishop has been beyond clutch this entire postseason. He has two Game 7 shutouts in the playoffs and was the best player on the ice for a good portion of the Rangers series. The team with the hot goalie is generally the one that goes the furthest, if not all the way, and Ben Bishop is definitely a hot goalie right now.
Corey Crawford has won two Cups in Chicago, but the Blackhawks don't really seem to have that much confidence in him. He got pulled twice and temporarily lost his starting job against Nashville, but Crawford has settled himself since then. The games they lost to Anaheim weren't his fault, and he came up big when they needed him to. Most importantly, Crawford has that experience and has shown he can get the job done, so I think going back to him was the right call. While it's entirely possible they might lose games because of him, the Blackhawks won't win the series without Crawford in net.
So who has the edge? Normally I'd say that having home ice is a slight advantage for Tampa, but Chicago's the one team that's shown they don't care whatsoever where their playoff games are taking place. I actually think the Blackhawks might prefer it on the road. Although, 18,000 screaming, towel-waving, red-clad fans in the Madhouse On Madison (home of the best goal song in hockey) is pretty freaking cool.
These two are incredibly evenly-matched, which means we should be in for a great series. I think Chicago's defense will hold the Lightning forwards in check, so it'll be up to the Tampa Bay defense to do the same. If it comes down to which goalie performs better, I'd say advantage Lightning. I don't think it'll come to that, though. The Blackhawks are one of the best teams I've ever seen at making adjustments within a series. And that's where I think Chicago's got the big edge. These players have all won the Cup before. That experience will pay off, but Joel Quenneville will be the real reason Gary Bettman hands Jonathan Toews the Stanley Cup for the third time in six years. Blackhawks in six.
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