It's safe to say that all of the news we've heard about FIFA so far in 2015 hasn't been good. Of course there was the corruption scandal that led to the arrest of multiple FIFA officials, some of whom have even admitted to taking bribes. Amid all this, Sepp Blatter was re-elected as president, only to resign days later when he saw the walls are clearly closing in on him. And the talk of moving the two tainted World Cups has again emerged. (In my opinion, it's too late to do anything about 2018. Russia's already building stadiums and three years is not enough time for another country to properly prepare.)
What FIFA needs is people's attention back on the field. Fortunately, that's going to happen over the next month, as the Women's World Cup takes center stage. There was some controversy over the use of artificial turf instead of natural grass, but that's all in the past. The top players from around the world have arrived in Canada for the largest Women's World Cup ever.
They added eight teams to the field this year, going from 16 to 24. That was a necessary step which shows the development of the women's game. And as a result of the expansion, eight countries will be making their World Cup debuts. Unfortunately, it also means that there are some weaker teams that will probably get blown out three times (Ivory Coast, for example, is ranked 67th in the world). However, that doesn't mean the expanded tournament will be any less competitive. Because the number of top teams has grown, and the later rounds of this tournament are going to be very good.
Group A: Canada, China, Netherlands, New Zealand
Canada will obviously benefit from its home field advantage. They finished last in Germany four years ago, but won the bronze at the London Olympics and are ranked eighth in the world. They'll play the first game of the tournament against a Chinese team that used to be a world power (remember the 1999 final at the Rose Bowl?), but didn't qualify for the World Cup in 2011. New Zealand and the Netherlands will join them, with the Dutch making their first appearance in the Women's World Cup. While Canada should easily win the group, the battle for the second and third spots will be very competitive. That New Zealand-Netherlands opener could determine a lot, although China can't be counted out. By the slightest of margins, I'm going to give the Netherlands the nod for the second place spot, with China finishing third and getting one of those wild card spots to the round of 16.
Group B: Germany, Ivory Coast, Norway, Thailand
This group should be a breeze for the Germans. They're ranked No. 1 in the world and won't have to face another team in the top 10 until the knockout stage. They've also got a chip on their shoulder. After winning the previous two World Cups, they were eliminated in the quarterfinals as hosts four years ago, then didn't even qualify for the Olympics. As for the second team that will automatically advance, I've gotta go with Norway. The Norwegians are one of seven teams to have been in every Women's World Cup and are clearly the second-best team in this group. It's not even close. The two European teams will easily advance. I've also got this group pegged as one of the two that won't have its third-place team advance. Ivory Coast and Thailand, both making their debuts, are simply over-matched against these two European heavyweights.
Group C: Cameroon, Ecuador, Japan, Switzerland
The defending champs were also blessed with an easy group. Japan has been in every Women's World Cup, while none of the other three has played in one previously. The Japanese, of course, had that memorable run to the title in 2011, and have to be considered one of the favorites entering this year's tournament. They won't be challenged in group play, which could be good or bad depending on how their knockout draw sorts out. Switzerland got incredibly lucky by avoiding another European team, and they're better than both Ecuador and Cameroon, two of the three weakest teams in the field. Like Group B, I don't see the third place team advancing to the round of 16. Switzerland will join Japan in the knockout stage.
Group D: Australia, Nigeria, Sweden, United States
Women's World Cup fun fact: the United States and Sweden have been in the same group three straight times, and the United States has been in the same group as Nigeria three times in the last four World Cups. North Korea is usually the fourth team in the USA, Sweden, Nigeria group, but they were ineligible for this year's tournament, so the honors go to Australia instead. Just like the men's team last year, the American women were drawn into the proverbial "Group of Death." Although, since it's highly likely three teams will advance out of this group, a win over Australia in the opener should be enough to ensure qualification. Of course, Team USA is thinking bigger than that. For all their Olympic success (three straight gold medals), it's been 16 years since they won the World Cup. They'd obviously like that to change. And I think being in the most difficult group will benefit the Americans in the long run. Sweden arguably could've been seeded and actually won the group over the U.S. four years ago. They're one of the stronger sides in the tournament. This was a bad draw for Nigeria. They're the most talented African side, but are no match for these three heavyweights. Australia will finish third and be the team no group winner wants to face in the round of 16.
Group E: Brazil, Costa Rica, South Korea, Spain
Brazil has an incredible amount of pressure on it going into this year's Women's World Cup. This is the golden generation of Brazilian women's soccer, but they have nothing to show for it. Two Olympic silvers, one World Cup final and another third place finish. The pressure's not as great as it will be when they host the Olympics next year (ask the Brazilian men how they handled the pressure last year), but they know their window of opportunity is closing. It should be easy advancement for the Brazilians, but the battle for second place probably won't be decided until the final day of group play, when Spain meets South Korea in Ottawa. The Koreans' only previous appearance was in 2003, while the Spanish have never before played in the Women's World Cup. I think they'll both move on, but finishing second and avoiding a team from Group D is all the motivation necessary to go for the win in that final game. For some reason, I like South Korea in that game.
Group F: Colombia, England, France, Mexico
Group F sets up for two great battles, both of which could be decided in the opening games. Rivals France and England, numbers three and six in the world, meet in the first game, while Mexico and Colombia, both ranked in the 20s, play in the nightcap. France and England actually played in the quarterfinals at the last Women's World Cup, with the French advancing on penalty kicks en route to a fourth-place finish, their best-ever showing. They're technically the third-best team in the world, which got them seeded over Sweden, so they're not going to surprise anyone this time. They're not the French men's team (which always seems to choke in the World Cup), but for some reason, I see them losing to England and finishing second in the group. As for the third-place qualifier, I've gotta say I like Colombia. They finished second in South American qualifying, knocking out Argentina in the process, while Mexico barely qualified finishing third (behind Costa Rica) in the CONCACAF qualifying tournament.
Round of 16: Netherlands vs. Switzerland, United States vs. South Korea, Germany vs. China, England vs. Spain, Brazil vs. Sweden, Japan vs. Colombia, Norway vs. France, Canada vs. Australia
Because we don't know which four third-place teams will advance to the knockout round, not all of the pairings are predetermined like they are on the men's side. But the ones that are are unfortunate. For example, E1 vs. D2 means Brazil will have to beat most likely either the United States or Sweden just to get to the quarters. Same thing with Norway vs. the England/France loser. But just like the groups that are weaker, that creates opportunities for others.
If the tournament plays out the way I think it will and these are the eight round of 16 matchups, I'll take Switzerland advancing to meet the USA and Germany vs. England. Brazil-Sweden would obviously be the most compelling matchup, and things obviously won't get any easier for the winner with Japan awaiting in the quarters. That's by far the toughest game to make a pick on. I'll say Brazil takes it in penalty kicks. Meanwhile, France beats Norway to set up a quarterfinal matchup with Canada. (Because UEFA's being lazy and not having an Olympic qualifying tournament, that would also secure berths in Rio for Switzerland, Germany and France.)
And that's where things will get good. Outside of Switzerland, all of my quarterfinalists are legitimate threats to win the tournament. The Americans beat the Swiss and Germany beats England to set up a semifinal between the top two teams in the world (if they both win their group, there's no possible way for the U.S. and Germany to play in the final). In the other semi, I'll take Japan vs. Canada.
With Germany and Japan the only teams standing in the way of an all-North American final, the semis should be incredible. This U.S. team is on a mission and that semifinal game in Montreal will have an awful lot of American fans in attendance. That, and Hope Solo, should be enough to make a difference. As for Team Canada, they'll be playing in the semifinals at home on Canada Day. They felt like they got cheated out of a chance at Olympic gold with that controversial semifinal loss to the U.S. in London. Three years later, they'll get a chance to avenge that defeat in the World Cup Final at Vancouver's Olympic Stadium. Except the Americans are too strong. If they get back to the final, they're not losing it again.
Sixteen years is long enough. Abby Wambach, Alex Morgan and Co. get their World Cup to go along with all those Olympic gold medals.
No comments:
Post a Comment