As you know, the French Open is my least favorite of the four Grand Slams. It's got nothing to do with the tennis or the clay. It's all because of one annoying little Spanish guy. Even his fans have to admit, it's getting pretty boring watching him win every year. Once the French Open becomes a little more like the other three Grand Slams and less predictable, it might go back to generating the same excitement level I have for Wimbledon or, especially, the US Open.
This year, I have a feeling it might actually be different, though. Clay Boy has shown himself to be remarkably pedestrian over recent weeks. He lost (and not in the finals) at all the clay court tune-up tournaments that he usually steamrolls right through. As a result, his ranking has dropped significantly, and he's seeded only sixth here (the ranking goes down further if he doesn't win again and defend all his French Open points from last year). So, while Nadal might be chasing his sixth straight title and 10th overall, this is also an incredible opportunity for someone else to actually be allowed to win the French Open.
Of course, knowing that Nadal was going to be seeded lower this year, all the top players were hoping he wouldn't end up in their draw. Well, you know whose draw he ended up in? Top-ranked Novak Djokovic, who's still looking for that elusive first French Open title. A Djokovic-Nadal quarterfinal! Are you kidding me?!
Djokovic, of course, is less excited about that than everyone else. It's a double-edged sword for him. The French Open title is going to go through Nadal. Everyone knows that. But you also want to put off facing him as long as possible. Now Djokovic won't have to deal with him in a final or even a semi, but a quarter! However, should he win that match, the most dangerous challenger is out and the path to his first French Open title becomes a lot clearer. And Djokovic has won a bunch of those clay court tournaments Nadal lost in, so I really think he's got a good shot.
The biggest beneficiary of Nadal's seed and place in the draw, though, has to be Roger Federer. Normally to win a Grand Slam on the men's side, you have to go at least two of the Big Three. Well, this year that won't be the case. Roger knows that he only has to face one of his rivals, and that can't happen until the finals. Federer's the only guy other than Nadal to win this title in the last 10 years, and this is perhaps his best shot to add another one. Especially if Djokovic and Nadal beat the crap out of each other (which you'd have to figure will happen), how much will the survivor have left for Federer, who'll likely have had a much easier path to the final.
That's not to say Roger's automatically going to reach the finals. There are plenty of other players in the bottom half of the draw who are ready to seize the opportunity before them. Both French guys (Tsonga and Monfils) have perhaps their best chance to win their home Grand Slam, and Tomas Berdych and Stan Wawrinka are both there. I don't think they'll prevent Federer from getting to the finals, but he's lost some early matches to obscure players in Grand Slams recently, so if he slips up, one of them will be there to capitalize.
However, if it's somebody other than Federer that comes out of the bottom half of the men's draw, the final will be a very one-sided affair. You've gotta think the winner of that Djokovic-Nadal quarterfinal becomes the odds-on favorite to win the whole thing, regardless of who the opponent is, but a Federer-Djokovic final would be very interesting (and very fun to watch). I've got Djokovic beating Nadal, so my final is Djokovic-Federer, with Djokovic winning and finally claiming that first French Open.
On the women's side, this has been Maria Sharapova's tournament of late. She completed the career Grand Slam here two years ago, then defended a Grand Slam title for the first time last year. But of course, that was before Serena Williams got back to the absolute pinnacle of her game at the US Open. If the Serena that played in Australia shows up, it'll be very difficult for any woman to beat her. But this is Roland Garros. Clay is traditionally Serena's worst surface, and Maria has developed into the best clay courter on the women's tour, so you'd have to think she enters the tournament as the favorite.
Serena's path could be a challenging one, too. Vika Azarenka is finally once again ranked high enough to be seeded, but at No. 27, she'll play Serena in the third round. Then it's Serena vs. Venus in the round of 16, with one Williams set for a matchup with Caroline Wozniacki in the quarterfinals (if Woz can get by Sara Errani). And after that, it's the tour's new darling, Genie Bouchard, a semifinalist here and finalist at Wimbledon in 2014. Like I said, tough.
Joining Sharapova on the bottom half isn't anyone you would consider a serious threat for the title. Sure, Ana Ivanovic is also a former French Open champion, but how many times has she lost in the first or second round to somebody unknown? I don't even think Ivanovic has been to the second week other than the two years she was in the finals back-to-back. Simona Halep, last year's finalist, is seeded third and appears to have a pretty clean route to Maria in the semis, but you'd really have to reach to say you envision Simona Halep hoisting the trophy a week from Saturday.
We usually see someone emerge at the French Open, but this year's draw really favors those top seeds. Serena's path is by far more difficult, but you know what happens with her as Grand Slam tournaments move along. Same thing with Sharapova, who's a completely different player on the slow stuff at Roland Garros. Could those two be on a collision course for the finals? I think so. And if they do meet, will Serena continue to have Maria's number, or will Sharapova finally get that first win over Serena since the 2004 Wimbledon final? If she's going to beat her, this is the place. I'll take the minor "upset" and say Sharapova makes it three straight French Opens with a win over Serena Williams in the final.
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