Don't worry, we'll continue the Franchise Four project with the NBA and NFL soon enough. But it would be boring to do essentially the same post three times in a row. Besides, I've got to build that suspense.
The reason I wanted to do something different today? Well, it's because the IOC has officially opened the process for the sports that are looking to be added to the Olympic program for the 2020 Tokyo Games. Or, as many people think, baseball & softball's path to reinstatement. While I'm not as confident as most that we're necessarily going to see that happen, I absolutely love the fact that the Olympic program will be expanding one way or the other in 2020.
This was one of the major reforms in IOC President Thomas Bach's "Olympic Agenda 2020" initiative. During former President Jacques Rogge's tenure, the Olympic program was capped at 28 sports. When baseball and softball were voted out, that created two openings, which were filled by golf and rugby for Rio. That 28-sport maximum created even more controversy when they determined that a new sport would be added for Tokyo, which meant another sport would have to be dropped. But, as it turns out, they didn't really add a sport at all, since they made that ridiculous decision to drop wrestling, then rectified the situation by immediately reinstating it.
I always hated the 28-sport cap, which seemed completely arbitrary (why not a nice round number like 30?). Fortunately, President Bach agrees with me. Why do sports have to get dropped so others can get added? If you can find a way to work in new sports/events while keeping within the preferred number of athletes, why not do that? To me, it just doesn't seem fair to take that Olympic status away from a sport.
Bach moving it from a sport-based program to an event-based program created a little more flexibility when creating the Olympic schedule. One of the reasons for doing this was to give the host nation the opportunity to showcase sports that are more popular in their respective countries. (If Boston does end up hosting in 2024, you can bet they'll want to have baseball games at Fenway Park included.)
That's why the optimism for baseball and softball's return is so high. Both sports are obviously huge in Japan. Baseball is the national sport, Nippon Professional Baseball is the highest level of pro ball outside the Major Leagues, and Japan won the first two World Baseball Classics. Meanwhile, the Japanese softball team is the reigning Olympic champions, having upset the United States in the gold medal game in Beijing. It seems to make perfect sense. They're incredibly popular, and there are plenty of existing baseball/softball venues in the country that they wouldn't need to build one.
But my big worry about the readmission of baseball and softball is their place in the Games beyond 2020. As I said earlier, I don't like the idea of sports coming and going from the Olympic program. I have a feeling that's exactly what would happen if the right sport isn't added for Tokyo, though. Baseball's popularity is limited throughout the rest of the world. Among potential 2024 hosts, it's popular in the United States, Germany and Italy, but what if Paris ends up hosting? Do they even know what baseball is in France? Paris might want to say "au revoir" to baseball and softball and add something that's popular in France, meaning that Olympic return was limited to just one Games.
Don't get me wrong. I think baseball and softball belong in the Olympics. It was a mistake to drop them in the first place, and I would certainly welcome their return in Tokyo. But I'd also like to see some assurance that whatever sport is added will stick around for a while. Especially because of how devastating it would be (especially for softball) to be dropped from the Olympics twice.
With that in mind, baseball/softball's not the only international federation that has been invited to apply for Olympic inclusion, and there are a few that I think would make excellent additions to the program. OK, one mainly. And, yes, I'm talking about squash. There's also that camp that feels baseball and softball have had their chance and it should be somebody else's turn. While I don't necessarily agree with that, I can see their point.
Squash, in my opinion, is the most Olympic-ready of the sports that have been invited to apply for inclusion for the first time, and is probably considered the sport most likely to get the nod if baseball and softball somehow don't. There's also the possibility that more than one sport could be added. Or none. That decision won't come until next year. First they'll look at the applications and choose which sports will move forward. Then the Tokyo organizers will make a proposal to the IOC by September 30. The IOC won't discuss it until they meet in Rio just before next year's Olympics, though.
It's highly likely that the Tokyo organizers will recommend that at least one sport be added to the Olympic program for 2020. Does that mean the return of Olympic baseball and softball? One can only hope so. You know they're thanking their lucky stars that the 2020 Olympics are in Japan. (Perhaps only the U.S. and/or Canada would've been better for baseball/softball's prospects.) And if baseball and softball are brought back, I hope it's a permanent return for two sports that never should've been dropped in the first place.
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