It's been a weird year at Indy. First of all, the Indy 500 kinda just snuck up on us. Memorial Day's the earliest it can possibly be, which means the race is also on its earliest possible date. (I totally didn't realize the Winston was last Saturday until I watched the replay of it on Sunday morning.) Then day one of qualifying gets rained out and all we hear about is the spectacular crashes this month at the Brickyard which, fortunately, haven't resulted in any injuries (except to the cars).
But all that's irrelevant now. Because come race day, no one's going to care about rain earlier in the month or what happened in qualifying. All that matters is what happens on the track. That's ultimately what's going to decide who kisses the bricks and drinks the milk.
Last year, we had an American winner for the first time in so long I can barely remember. I think it was Sam Hornish, Jr., in 2008 who won Indy, then, like so many others, decided there was more money to be made in NASCAR. Sam Hornish, Jr. hasn't been heard from since. Fortunately, Ryan Hunter-Reay didn't do that after his 2014 Indy win. He's back in 2015 to defend his title. Hunter-Reay is starting in the middle of the pack, but that's roughly where he started last year, so I doubt that'll be an issue.
Hunter-Reay's margin of victory over Helio Castroneves last year was just 0.06 seconds, the second-closest margin in Indy 500 history. Meanwhile, two years ago, we saw a remarkable 68 lead changes. We can only hope that this year's race is anywhere near as exciting as the last two have been.
The favorite here has to be Scott Dixon. Dixon won from the pole in 2008 and is on the pole again this year. He has looked dominant all week. Dixon's qualifying speed was almost half an MPH faster than anybody else. Barring catastrophe (and we all know anything is possible at Indy), this is likely Dixon's race to lose.
Should Dixon falter, there are plenty of other contenders in the mix. Let's start with Will Power, who'll be starting right next to Dixon in the middle of row 1. Power hasn't had the greatest luck at the Brickyard. This is the seventh straight time he'll start in one of the first three rows (second straight in row 1), his best finish was fifth in 2009, and two eighth-place finishes were the only other times he's been in the Top 10. But he's the defending series champion and has been one of the most consistent drivers on the IndyCar circuit throughout his career.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian guys will be right behind Dixon and Power in row 2. After years of leading during the race and not winning, Tony Kanaan finally led at the end of the race in 2013. He's always a threat to win (as evidence by the fact he leads every year) no matter where he starts from. Kanaan has shown his ability to work his way up from the back, which isn't going to be the case this year. With him up front to start, Kanaan is absolutely a threat to win his second Indy 500.
Then there's Helio Castroneves. He came thisclose to joining legends A.J. Foyt, Al Unser and Rick Mears as the only four-time Indy 500 winners last year, and you'd have to think it's just a matter of time before Helio gets that fourth one.
Marco Andretti has had to endure his family's Indy curse ever since finishing second by a nose as a rookie in 2008. Eight years later, he's still looking for that first Andretti win since 1969. While not as esteemed as Marco, Graham Rahal is looking to join his father as an Indy 500 winner and has a decent starting position of 17th. And I can't go without mentioning Ed Carpenter. The Indianapolis native was the pole-sitter in each of the last two years, but this year has been talked about more for his crazy wreck in qualifying. I have to wonder, though. Does that take the pressure off him?
Others with an outside chance for the win are Frenchman Simon Pagenuad, who'll be on the outside of row 1; Josef Newgarden, who always seems to be in the mix; JR Hildebrand, who was an agonizing second to the late Dan Wheldon a couple years ago when he crashed while leading around the final turn on the final lap; Juan Pablo Montoya, who's in his second year back after his stint in NASCAR; and Carlos Munoz, who had some of the best practice runs of anybody and qualified 11th.
While I've got Dixon tabbed as my favorite for the win, I'm not counting out Power, Kanaan, Castroneves or even Hunter-Reay. I'll give you that as my top five.
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