The NCAA Tournament put me a little behind on my blogging. I originally wanted to begin the annual six-part baseball preview before the Dodgers-Diamondbacks games in Australia. But I also figured you'd like to see some photos from Orlando, which is why I did that first and saved Part I of the baseball preview for today.
I usually start with the AL East and work my way west, then switch leagues. But I'm reversing that this season. We've already started the season, and it was a pair of NL West teams that got the honor. As a result, it probably makes more sense to start the previewing with the NL West.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers aren't just the best team in the NL West. They're the best team in the National League, and maybe all of Baseball. Once they figured everything out and got their stuff together last year, they were virtually unbeatable, and if Clayton Kershaw is Clayton Kershaw in the playoffs, they probably beat the Cardinals. There's an abundance of riches in LA, starting with the best outfield in the game. When they're all healthy, the Dodgers have a nice problem...trying to figure out how to work four guys into three positions. Unfortunately, all four of them being healthy hasn't really happened since Puig's emergence (in fact, he was only called up last season because Ethier was on the DL), and they had Scott Van Slyke start in Australia because both Kemp and Crawford are out (although Crawford's on paternity leave, so I guess he gets a pass there). But it's still a nice problem to have. And they don't even need to think about flipping one for a pitcher. Because they've got one of the deepest, most talented rotations out there. There's obviously Kershaw, who's worth every penny of that record contract he signed during the offseason, but let's not forget about Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Or Josh Beckett. Or Dan Haren. Or Paul Maholm. One of those three won't even be in the rotation. Once they settled on Kenley Janssen as the closer, that really settled the bullpen, too. The only glaring weakness I can see with this Dodgers team is second base. It looks like they're going to move Dee Gordon over there, but they have plenty of options (Justin Turner, Chone Figgins). Whoever they put in there can hit seventh or eight and do a plenty serviceable job. Especially after coming so close last season, the Dodgers are on a mission. This is going to be a tough team to beat. Injuries are the only thing I can see slowing them down. But they've got enough depth at key positions that even losing one of the big guys (as long as it's not Kershaw or Hanley) might not be overly devastating.
Projected Record: 99-63
Projected Lineup: Carl Crawford-LF, Yasiel Puig-RF, Hanley Ramirez-SS, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Andre Ethier-CF, Juan Uribe-3B, A.J. Ellis-C, Dee Gordon-2B
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Haren, Paul Maholm
Closer: Kenley Janssen
2. San Francisco Giants: If the cycle holds, it's the Giants' year to win the World Series (or, at the very least, the National League pennant). Once again, it's all about pitching by the Bay. Tim Lincecum was a free agent, but they made it a point to make sure they re-signed him. They were finally able to get themselves out from under that ridiculous Barry Zito contract, and they replaced him with Tim Hudson, which is probably an upgrade, especially since we're talking about the No. 3 and 4 starters behind Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain. That's the thing I love about this Giants pitching rotation. All of these guys are pretty much interchangeable. And we know about the Giants bullpen. All of the usual suspects are still there, from Santiago Casilla to Javier Lopez to Jeremy Affeldt to closer Sergio Romo. I'm not sure if I consider the addition of Michael Morse an upgrade. They certainly needed to add some more power to the lineup, but Morse is nowhere near the defender Gregor Blanco is. But they've also had Barry Bonds and Pat Burrell play left field in that stadium, so the Giants obviously aren't particularly concerned about their defense at that position. San Francisco stacks up very well against its rivals except for one key area. The Dodgers have more depth, and it's better depth. It would be much harder for the Giants to overcome a significant injury than it would be for the Dodgers. That's why I think the Dodgers have the upper-hand in the division. However, with that being said, the Giants will be in the thick of the wild card race right up until the end.
Projected Record: 89-73 (Wild Card)
Projected Lineup: Angel Pagan-CF, Marco Scutaro-2B, Buster Posey-C, Hunter Pence-RF, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Michael Morse-LF, Brandon Belt-1B, Brandon Crawford-SS
Projected Rotation: Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong
Closer: Sergio Romo
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: After the top two, handicapping the National League West becomes difficult. But of the remaining three, the one I think most capable of making noise is Arizona. Paul Goldschmidt had his breakout season in 2013. He's a legitimate, in-his-prime star. And even though I don't think it made much sense for the Angels, the Mark Trumbo trade was great for Arizona. Now they've got a legitimate 3-4 tandem. Unfortunately, the lineup doesn't get much deeper than that. Mainly, though, I like the Diamondbacks' pitching better than Colorado's and San Diego's. Losing Patrick Corbin for the season will certainly hurt, but that rotation is solid, and I love the addition of Bronson Arroyo to it. He doesn't get a lot of credit, but Arroyo's going to go out there, take the ball every fifth day and give you seven innings. He's a quality professional starter, yet nobody wanted him. I'm glad he's found a home in Arizona. The Diamondbacks won't regret singing him and plugging him into the No. 3 spot in the rotation. Arizona's bullpen is also not that bad. They're not going to win the division, and they're probably not going to be in contention for a wild card, either. But the Diamondbacks are far from the worst team, either. I'll bet they probably finish right around .500.
Projected Record: 81-81
Projected Lineup: A.J. Pollock-CF, Gerardo Parra-RF, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Mark Trumbo-LF, Miguel Montero-C, Martin Prado-3B, Aaron Hill-2B, Didi Gregorius-SS
Projected Rotation: Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Bronson Arroyo, Brandon McCarthy, Randall Delgado
Closer: Addison Reed
4. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies without Todd Helton. It's weird thing to think about. But their franchise player has retired and is set to join Mariano Rivera in the Cooperstown Class of 2019. They set about replacing him with Justin Morneau, who was shipped off to the Pirates last season as the Twins finally committed to their rebuilding effort. Hopefully he can resurrect his career in the Mile High air of Denver and continue the legacy set forward by Helton. The addition of Morneau bolsters the Rockies lineup considerably, and gives Colorado a relatively formidable middle of the order. Problem is the rest of the order ain't gonna scare anybody and, in what's a common theme of this franchise's entire existence, the pitching depth is about as thin as the air. When your "ace" is Jorge de la Rosa, and that "ace" might miss the first month of the season, that's not a good thing. It's also not a good thing when your closer is LaTroy Hawkins. Pitching's always a concern in Colorado. Especially when the two best teams in this division have pitching in abundance. Until they can close or narrow that gap, the Rockies aren't going to contend in the NL West, which is really a shame. Because Tulo and CarGo are very much worth watching.
Projected Record: 74-88
Projected Lineup: Drew Stubbs-LF, D.J. LeMathieu-2B, Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Carlos Gonzalez-CF, Michael Cuddyer-RF, Justin Morneau-1B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Wilin Rosario-C
Projected Rotation: Jorge de la Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin, Brett Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, Juan Nicasio
Closer: LaTroy Hawkins
5. San Diego Padres: It's possible that the Padres might finish fourth, or even third, this season. San Diego's getting there, and I don't think the gap between them, the Diamondbacks and Rockies isn't that great. The Padres' rotation is pretty solid, and they've got a first-rate closer in Huston Street. In fact, I'd be surprised if Street is still a Padre at the end of the season. The lineup has also seen some significant upgrades over the past few seasons. Chase Headley was already a star, and second baseman Jedd Gyorko soon may be. One of the best things about a team like the Padres is that young players get a chance to play everyday and develop at the Major League level. Much like Headley, Gyorko's worth watching. And since the Headley-to-the-Yankees thing never really gained much traction, those two will remain together to at least start this season. Then there's Everth Cabrera. He was in the midst of a career year when he was one of the guys nailed in the Biogenesis scandal and was suspended in August for the rest of the 2013 season. How he bounces back, and whether or not he was indeed "enhanced," could be key to the Padres' success this season. How long Cameron Maybin is out could also have a major impact. If all goes well for San Diego this season, third place isn't out of the question. However, I think it's more realistic to think the Padres are looking at another year towards the bottom. Better days are coming, though. Probably soon.
Projected Record: 71-91
Projected Lineup: Everth Cabrera-SS, Will Venable-CF, Chase Headley-3B, Carlos Quentin-LF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Jedd Gyorko-2B, Chris Denorfia-RF, Nick Hundley-C
Projected Rotation: Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, Eric Stults, Josh Johnson
Closer: Huston Street
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