The NL Central is one of the most interesting divisions in baseball. On one hand you've got the Cardinals, who, no matter what, always seem to be in the hunt at the end. Take last year for example. Did anyone really think St. Louis was going to win the division, let alone the pennant, on Opening Day? Yet the Cardinals did their usual thing. Winning with a bunch of guys you've never heard of. That's one of the best organizations in all of baseball, and I don't see things changing anytime soon.
Especially since the rest of the NL Central is awful. The Cubs and Brewers might be two of the worst teams in the game. They'll be in a fight for last place, and the worst overall record is definitely a possibility for both (although the Marlins, Astros and Twins might also have something to say about that).
As for the Pirates and Reds, they played each other in the Wild Card Game last year. Except Cincinnati's not as good as they've been for the past couple years and Pittsburgh, the story of the year in 2013, is hopefully more than just a one-year wonder. I'd like to believe last year was the start of something in Pittsburgh, but I only will if the Pirates are in the race again this season. I think they'll be in a dogfight with the Reds, just like the Brewers and Cubs will be in a dogfight for last.
1. St. Louis Cardinals: Remember when they lost Albert Pujols and we all thought it would be the end of the Cardinals being good year after year? Well, it turns out we were all wrong about that, weren't we? This team's coming off its second pennant in three years and might've actually found a way to get better. Allen Craig was hurt in the playoffs, paving the way for Matt Adams to take over at first base. Carlos Beltran left as a free agent, so Craig moves to right and Adams is inserted as the everyday first baseman. And they traded David Freese, who never really quite became the Face of the Franchise after the 2011 World Series, so that they could move Matt Carpenter, who's probably a better overall player, to third. This is a guy who led the National League in hits last season while playing second base, a position he learned to play while in the Majors! He's reunited with Albert in Anaheim and St. Louis got Peter Bourjos for him. I might be the one who's missing something, but I don't see what the Angels and Cardinals see in Bourjos. The guy isn't that good (but at least the Angels figured out that they shouldn't be moving Mike Trout away from his best position). Moving Carpenter to third also freed up second base for Kolten Wong, who they hope will be the next big thing. And they added Jhonny Peralta as a free agent to replace Rafael Furcal at short. Then there's the pitching staff, which is the prime example of the depth of the Cardinals' farm system. Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller all started games in the World Series last year, and Miller's not even projected to be in the rotation once Jaime Garcia's healthy. Then, of course, there's staff ace Adam Wainwright and a bullpen anchored by Trevor Rosenthal and Jason Motte. The Cardinals will be fine without the retired Chris Carpenter. This is a lesson to everyone. Having a good farm system and keeping those prospects will help you stay competitive at the Major League level year-in and year-out. The result this year for St. Louis will likely be another playoff appearance.
Projected Record: 94-68
Projected Lineup: Matt Carpenter-3B, Jon Jay-CF, Matt Holliday-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Jhonny Peralta-SS, Allen Craig-RF, Matt Adams-1B, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller
Closer: Trevor Rosenthal
2. Cincinnati Reds: It really feels like the Reds missed their window. They've been so good for so long, yet don't have a playoff series win to show for it. And it really is a shame that this is all happening during Joey Votto's prime. But, alas, the door isn't completely closed on Cincinnati. They lost leadoff man and center fielder Shin-Soo Choo to Texas, but that's not a problem at all. Because they needed to free up center for Billy Hamilton, who I project to be the National League Rookie of the Year. And since the Yankees vetoed the Brandon Phillips-for-Brett Gardner trade, they still have Phillips to create a dynamic 1-2-3 punch with Votto and Jay Bruce. Throw in Ryan Ludwick and Todd Frazier, who finally becomes the everyday third baseman this season, and you've still got a team that can tear the cover off the ball. They're going to need some pitching to back up that offense, though, and their pitching staff seems to be all injured right now. That's where letting Bronson Arroyo walk as a free agent could end up hurting them. There's also no way to figure out when Aroldis Chapman is going to return from that gruesome eye injury he suffered on that comebacker last week against Kansas City. I'm not sure who the temporary closer is going to be, but Jonathan Broxton used to be a closer, so I'd imagine he's the prime candidate. They fired Dusty Baker because he didn't win in the playoffs. That means the pressure's on new manager Bryan Price. The Reds are ready to win now, and they want to desperately. If they don't this year, they're in danger of doing the same thing the Phillies did. Going from contenders to irrelevant in very short order.
Projected Record: 87-75
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Ryan Ludwick-LF, Todd Frazier-3B, Zack Cozart-SS, Brayan Pena-C
Projected Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Tony Cingriani
Closer: Jonathan Broxton
3. Pittsburgh Pirates: Heading into last season, they were just trying to snap that streak of 19 consecutive losing seasons. Little did anyone know they'd not just win 82 games, they'd win 90, host the Wild Card Game, and take the Cardinals all the way to the wire in a five-game Division Series. Now the challenge is to do it again. The Pirates aren't going to sneak up on anybody this year. And we all know that they have more than just reigning NL MVP Andrew McCutchen. I love this team. But they need to show that they're going to do it again. That they're going to become the National League's version of the Tampa Bay Rays. And a return to the playoffs isn't completely out of the question. The lineup should be fine, and the back end of the bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Jason Grilli is one of the top closers out there. But that bullpen will only be as effective as the rotation lets it be. As weird as this is going to sound, A.J. Burnett is a big loss. He was the veteran innings-eater that those young starters needed. Fortunately, they've still got Francisco Liriano. And Gerritt Cole is the real deal. Until they prove otherwise, I'm going to believe last year was the start of another streak. Finishing above .500 is going to become the norm in the Steel City.
Projected Record: 84-78
Projected Lineup: Starling Marte-LF, Neil Walker-2B, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Pedro Alvarez-3B, Russell Martin-C, Jose Tabata-RF, Gaby Sanchez-1B, Jordy Mercer-SS
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Gerritt Cole, Jeff Locke, Wandy Rodriguez, Edinson Volquez
Closer: Jason Grilli
4. Chicago Cubs: It was tough to choose between the Cubs and Brewers for fourth place. They're both pretty bad. But this is Wrigley's 100th Anniversary season, so I'm going to give the Cubbies the nod. Plus, I really like Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro, and I'm very excited to see The Cubs at the Stadium in a couple weeks. But even still, I think the Cubs are a better team than Milwaukee. They've got the pieces in place to start being competitive again in a year or two. Theo Epstein knows how to build a baseball team. He did end the Curse in Boston, after all. But after another year or two of rebuilding, Cubs fans will see the dividends. They need Jeff Samardzija to pitch like an ace and the rest of the rotation to give them a chance to win games. The real interesting battle for this team, though, could be for Chicago supremacy. The White Sox aren't that good, either. I don't know why, but I don't think the Cubs will be that bad. They won't be good, but avoiding 90 losses is definitely doable.
Projected Record: 71-91
Projected Lineup: Junior Lake-LF, Darwin Barney-2B, Starlin Castro-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Nate Schierholtz-RF, Justin Ruggiano-CF, Luis Valbuena-3B, Wellington Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, Jake Arrieta
Closer: Jose Veras
5. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers sure turned from contender to joke pretty quickly, didn't they? Of course, rock bottom was last season, when Golden Boy Ryan Braun was exposed as a liar and a fraud. I bet they're regretting making him the Face of the Franchise now. Because they'd probably like to distance themselves from Braun as much as possible now. But they're stuck with him, and moving him to right field this season. And perhaps the only good thing about losing Braun for the last 65 games last season was that they were able to groom his replacement, Khris Davis, with nothing to lose. The Brewers also made some interesting off-season moves, including bringing in two of the many veterans that played with the Yankees last season--Lyle Overbay and Mark Reynolds--to tag-team first base. They've still got Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura and Aramis Ramirez, too, so the lineup shouldn't be the problem. But I'm worried about the pitching staff. Behind Yovani Gallardo, they don't really have that deep of a rotation. Matt Garza's currently penciled into the three-spot, and, frankly, I'm surprised he chose Milwaukee. I'd be even more surprised if he ends the season with the Brewers. I have no idea who this Jim Henderson guy that's supposed to be the closer is. Fortunately, it doesn't really matter. The Brewers probably aren't going to have that many save situations.
Projected Record: 64-98
Projected Lineup: Carlos Gomez-CF, Rickie Weeks-2B, Ryan Braun-RF, Aramis Ramirez-3B, Jean Segura-SS, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Mark Reynolds-1B, Khris Davis-LF
Projected Rotation: Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta
Closer: Jim Henderson
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