Today it's time to wrap up the National League with the Eastern Division. The NL East has an interesting collection of teams. There's a Nationals squad that greatly underachieved last season, a very good Braves team that probably overachieved a little, a rebuilding Phillies squad, the Marlins and the Mets. Miami is still a glorified Quadruple-A team, while the Mets are...I don't really know what. I do expect them to be better this season, but it's next year when the Mets are going to be really scary. That's when they'll have the sick Harvey-Wheeler-Syndergaard rotation in place.
As for who's going to win this division, I've gotta say it'll be a two-team race between Washington and Atlanta. But if the 2012 Nationals show up instead of the 2013 Nationals, that two-team race won't be much of a race. Talent-wise, Washington is far-and-away the best team in this division. That doesn't mean Atlanta can't make a return trip to the playoffs, though. In fact, I think the Braves will end up in the Wild Card Game.
The Mets will finish third, but the bottom of the division is harder to call. The Phillies all got old quickly. And all at once. So much so that Roy Halladay retired. But they're at least still trying, which is enough to make me think they'll finish ahead of the Marlins. Things are getting better in Miami, though. They won't be as painful to watch this season. They might even avoid 100 losses.
1. Washington Nationals: It's almost not fair how good the Nationals are. Washington is loaded at every position and, even though they didn't need him at all, they added Nate McLouth as a fourth outfielder. Nate McLouth, who could easily be a starter anywhere else in the Majors, is the fourth outfielder in Washington. Oh yeah, and the Nationals' starting outfield of Bryce Harper, Denard Span and Jayson Werth ain't too shabby either. They're pretty stacked in the infield, too. Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche have the corners locked down, while I love that trio of Ian Desmond, Anthony Rendon and Danny Espinosa. They can all play anywhere. The Nationals are going to do plenty of hitting, but they're not going to need it. Because they have an outstanding rotation. Gio Gonzalez would be a No. 1 starter anywhere else. But Washington has Stephen Strasburg. And did I mention they traded for Doug Fister...then promptly inserted him into the No. 4 spot in the rotation? Their rotation is so deep that Ross Detwiler is now in the bullpen, further bolstering an already solid unit. Detwiler, Craig Stammen, Jerry Blevins and Tyler Clippard, along with closer Rafael Soriano and closer-in-waiting Drew Storen. Like I said, I love this Washington team. The Nationals are very, very good and are going to win a lot of games this season. I'd even be willing to say that this might be the second-best team in the National League, and potentially the only one that can beat the Dodgers in October. The World Series hasn't been to the nation's capital since 1933, and the Expos/Nationals franchise is one of two to have never been there. That could change this season.
Projected Record: 83-69
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Ian Desmond-SS, Bryce Harper-LF, Ryan Zimmerman-3B, Adam LaRoche-1B, Jayson Werth-RF, Anthony Rendon-2B, Wilson Ramos-C
Projected Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Drew Storen, Tanner Roark
Closer: Rafael Soriano
2. Atlanta Braves: If the Nationals stumble, expect the Braves to be right there to pounce. Atlanta will certainly be hurt by the loss of Brian McCann, but they're also relying on a couple of bounce-back seasons from some of their returning veterans. Specifically, I'm talking about Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton. How bad was the B.J. Upton signing last season? Well, he had the lowest batting average of any qualifier in the NL, and he was benched in the playoffs for Evan Gattis. I thought one of the reasons the Braves let McCann walk was because they were trying to open up a position for Gattis, a catcher by trade. Which is why it's interesting that they added Ryan Doumit to do a bulk of the catching. That means they still need to find a place for Gattis, and with Freddie Freeman entrenched at first, that leaves the outfield as the only possibility (unless they want to try him at third). I'm really curious to see how Fredi Gonzalez will work this day in and day out. My biggest concern with the Braves, though is on the mound. Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy both had Tommy John surgery and Jonny Venters will be back from his after the All-Star break. It's crazy to think of the number of injuries they've had on that pitching staff. It's also crazy to think they only have four definite starters right now (because Mike Minor is also out). And that includes Aaron Harang, who was literally just released by Cleveland, but will probably start the season in Atlanta's rotation. The bullpen is still one of their great strengths, and Craig Kimbrel is one of the best closers in the game. They've also been smart about the way they've used their bullpen since its overuse cost them a playoff spot three years ago. This isn't the Braves' Glory Days anymore. But in the year Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Bobby Cox all go into the Hall of Fame, it would be fitting to see them start a new mini-dynasty and make a third straight playoff appearance.
Projected Record: 90-72 (Wild Card)
Projected Lineup: B.J. Upton-CF, Jason Heyward-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Justin Upton-LF, Evan Gattis-C, Dan Uggla-2B, Chris Johnson-3B, Andrelton Simmons-SS
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang, Alex Wood, David Hale
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
3. New York Mets: Sandy Alderson has said the Mets will win 90 games this year. They're only 76 away, so that's definitely doable. All kidding aside, though, the Mets should be a better team this year. They probably won't challenge for the NL East title, but they're not going to be anywhere near the bottom either. Third place and a record right around .500 (a few games over/under) seem about right. They're also primed to be very serious contenders in 2015. Especially if Matt Harvey is able to pitch at all this season. The Mets are pitching-rich, which is good when your home park is Citi Field. And I'd bet that Noah Syndergaard makes his debut either in late June or somewhere near the All-Star Break, getting him ready to be that valuable piece next season. I'm also including Jonathan Niese and Dillon Gee in that 2015 rotation. I love Jon Niese and think he's incredibly underrated. He also doesn't get enough credit as the only lefty in that rotation. Bartolo Colon is usually good in his first year with a team before sucking in his second. Since the Mets only need him for one year, that should work out nicely. But they also addressed their biggest problem and upgraded the lineup to finally put someone around David Wright. That power guy is Curtis Granderson, although we'll have to see if his power was merely the result of playing across town for four years. They also rescued Chris Young from Oakland. Hopefully neither one turns into Jason Bay. I love Lagares in center, and if Chris Young doesn't work out, they can simply swap Youngs and put Eric in there. The Mets are starting to have the nice problem of figuring out where to put guys. Especially now that they have Travis d'Arnaud locked in behind the plate. At first base, they've got the underachieving tag-team of Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. I might be the only one who sees it (mainly because he goes yard every time I go to a Mets game), but I still think Ike Davis can be a very productive Major League player. He's the Mets' Mark Sanchez. But if he struggles again and the Mets finally get tired of him, look out. Because I can see Ike Davis becoming a star if he ever gets out of New York.
Projected Record: 76-86
Projected Lineup: Juan Lagares-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, David Wright-3B, Curtis Granderson-LF, Ike Davis-1B, Chris Young-RF, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Ruben Tejada-SS
Projected Rotation: Jonathan Niese, Bartolo Colon, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee, Daisuke Matsuzaka
Closer: Bobby Parnell
4. Philadelphia Phillies: I almost feel bad about what happened to the Phillies. This was one of the dominant teams with a dominant pitching staff just a couple years ago. But this year's edition has turned into one big afterthought. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are all still serviceable, but they left their primes long ago. The best player on this team now is Domonic Brown. And the pitching depth that the Phillies have always been able to bank on simply isn't there anymore. Cliff Lee is still Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels on a good day is probably the third-best lefty in the National League (1. Kershaw, 2. Bumgarner). But Roy Halladay will be tough to replace. That being said, I like the A.J. Burnett signing. He'll bring to the Phillies exactly what he brought across the state. He's a veteran guy who'll go out there and give you seven innings every fifth day. Whether Good A.J. or Bad A.J. will show up is a question that even he probably doesn't know the answer too, but Good A.J. is so good that it's worth the risk. Bullpen's got Jonathan Papelbon closing, but not much else. I have a feeling the Phillies are going to blow a lot of games during the middle innings this season. They aren't going to be contenders, but they might be respectable if Howard, Rollins and Utley can stay healthy and play like their old selves. Fun note about the Phillies: after playing the Royals in their home opener last season, they play the Rangers on Opening Day this year. Clearly they aren't the biggest fans of April interleague.
Projected Record: 73-89
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins-SS, Ben Revere-CF, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Marlon Byrd-RF, Domonic Brown-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C, Cody Asche-3B
Projected Rotation: Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, A.J. Burnett, Kyle Kendrick, Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona)
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
5. Miami Marlins: When the Marlins complained about the Red Sox not bringing their starters to a Spring Training game, Boston owner John Henry (who used to own the Marlins) told them that they should apologize to their fans for their regular starting lineup. It was a great line that perfectly sums up the state of the Marlins. Two years after that blockbuster trade that was supposed to make them "instant contenders" in their new ballpark, they're in year two of yet another rebuilding process. Things are a little better this year, and they're not in the rock bottom situation of some other teams (see: Astros, Houston and Twins, Minnesota). They've even brought in some actual Major Leaguers as free agents that will make their lineup actually consist of more than just Giancarlo Stanton and eight other guys. Jarrod Saltalamacchia won a ring with the Red Sox last season, and Rafael Furcal was injured, but on that Cardinals roster nonetheless (alas, Furcal is once again injured, however). Plus, I think Christian Yelich is going to be a stud. Rookie of the Year will be between him and Billy Hamilton. Speaking of Rookie of the Year, the Marlins always look like a Major League team on the nights Jose Fernandez is pitching. And Henderson Alvarez was standing in the on-deck circle when Miami finished his walk-off no-hitter against the Tigers in the season finale last year. They've got good, young starting pitching. They'll beat some teams other than just the Mets this season. Amazingly, all of this rebuilding crap the Marlins do every year might actually work this time. It just won't be this year.
Projected Record: 68-94
Projected Lineup: Marcell Ozuna-CF, Rafael Furcal-2B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Garrett Jones-1B, Casey McGehee-3B, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Adeniy Hechevarria-SS
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez, Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, Jacob Turner, Tom Koehler
Closer: Steve Cishek
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