Opening Day is finally here! After five long months of waiting, it's baseball season at last. And for the final part of my baseball preview, we'll take a look at the division I know best--the AL East.
As usual, the AL East is the most competitive of the six divisions on paper. The Red Sox are the defending champs, so they're probably looked at as the favorites, and Tampa Bay was also in the playoffs last season. And you've got to think the Yankees are going to be the Yankees again, just by the sheer fact that everyone can't be injured for the entire season two years in a row. Right? That's why I think it's ridiculous that some of the magazines are saying they're only going to win 82-83 games this year. They might finish third, but there's no possible way they'll be worse than they were last season. To think so is just silly.
I'm not forgetting about the Orioles and Blue Jays. Baltimore's probably not going to make the playoffs. They're simply not as good as the top three teams. But they're going to have a say in who wins the AL East. Because they're going to end up with a winning record over one of them, and that might be the one that finishes third. And let's not forget that Toronto was the chic pick after that big trade with Miami last offseason. Like the Orioles, the Blue Jays are capable of being very, very scary. They just play in the wrong division.
1. Boston Red Sox: Just like it's ridiculous to think the Yankees will be worse than last year, I also think it's unrealistic to think the Red Sox will repeat what they did in 2013. Last season, they had a chip on their shoulder and were eager to prove that their disastrous 2012 was a distant memory. Then the horror at the Marathon, and the "Boston Strong" thing was born. It was the perfect storm of events, and it led to Boston's third World Championship in a decade. But they also got a bunch of career years from guys like Johnny Gomes and Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli. Maybe those stupid beards gave them superpowers. I'm not sure you can count on career years from that many different people two years in a row. Nevertheless, Boston is probably the best team in this division. They kept their core in tact, and making sure they re-signed Napoli was very important. Along with Pedroia and Ortiz, he's the backbone of that lineup. Losing Ellsbury at the top of the lineup could be a significant blow, though. Although, Grady Sizemore winning the center field (and, presumably, leadoff) job, has the makings of a wonderful comeback story. You have to wonder when his inevitable injury will come, though. As for the pitching, which is the real reason this team is so good, it's as strong as ever. Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Buchholz and Doubront represent one of the best rotations out there. It seems likely that Koji Uehara will be a little more human this season, but the bullpen is still very intimidating. I don't think they'll be as good as last year, and they certianly don't have a chip on their shoulder anymore. But they're back to being the Red Sox. And that's a scary prospect for everyone else.
Projected Record: 94-68
Projected Lineup: Grady Sizemore-CF, Shane Victorino-RF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, David Ortiz-DH, Mike Napoli-1B, Johnny Gomes-LF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Will Middlebrooks-3B, Xander Bogaerts-SS
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, Clay Buchholz, Felix Doubront
Closer: Koji Uehara
2. New York Yankees: Again, this may be fan speak, but I don't see how the Yankees can be any worse than they were last year, which is why I don't understand the projections of 82-84 wins that I've seen. For starters, the entire lineup isn't injured. The key guys being healthy alone is enough to think the Yankees will be at least a few games better this year than last season. And, just like the last time they missed the playoffs, they went out and filled some major holes through free agency. In hindsight, letting Russell Martin go to Pittsburgh was a terrible mistake. After having a big hole behind the plate last season, Brian McCann, the best free agent catcher available, has filled it. Jacoby Ellsbury is a better version of Brett Gardner, and if Carlos Beltran can still hit, that could prove to be a tremendous steal. (Even though I don't get the whole five starting outfielders thing.) Of course, everyone expected Robinson Cano to re-sign, and when he didn't it was a shock to the system. A-Rod's suspension wasn't much of a surprise, except it created another need. That's why Beltran and Ellsbury came as a bit of a surprise. They needed both a second baseman and a third baseman, as well as someone who'll give Jeter a chance to get some DH days and a backup for Teixeira. They didn't really get any of those things (Kelly Johnson doesn't count; he isn't good). The other guy everyone just assumed was going to be a Yankee is Masahiro Tanaka, and his addition certainly strengthens a rotation that took a slight hit with the retirement of Andy Pettittte. I also like re-signing Kuroda, who was good last season until he overwork caught up to him. CC will hopefully bounce back, and Nova should be good without this whole back-and-forth to the Minors thing to worry about. And Michael Pineda getting the fifth spot in the rotation is no surprise. That's why they got him in that trade with the Mariners two years ago. The bullpen is full of question marks without Mariano Rivera, the greatest ever, at the back end, but David Robertson deserves this chance to be the closer. They're not as good as Boston and might not be as good as Tampa Bay, either, but this Yankees team is more than capable of bouncing back and making a return to the postseason. Don't forget this, either. The last time the Yankees missed the playoffs prior to last season was 2008. They won the World Series in 2009. If they manage to do that again, what a way it would be for Derek Jeter to go out.
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card)
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Derek Jeter-SS, Carlos Beltran-RF, Alfonso Soriano-DH, Mark Teixeira-1B, Brian McCann-C, Kelly Johnson-3B, Brian Roberts-2B, Brett Gardner-LF
Projected Rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda
Closer: David Robertson
3. Tampa Bay Rays: I'm probably underestimating the Rays, just like everyone does every year. No matter what the projection, Tampa Bay ends up winning somewhere in the vicinity of 90 games and in or close to the playoffs. And this year's team isn't much different from last year's, which won a tiebreaker game in Texas and the Wild Card Game in Cleveland. As long as they've got Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and Wil Myers, the offense is going to be in good shape, and Tampa Bay is no longer a place guys immediately escape once they become free agents. I also love Desmond Jennings in center field. The real key guy for the Rays, though, is David Price. Price was a free agent this offseason, and he returned to Tampa on a one-year deal. But the possibility remains that this is his last year in Tampa. Locking up Price long-term is something the Rays need to prioritize, because he's the best pitcher they've ever had, as well as the anchor of that rotation. Alex Cobb and Matt Moore are good, but they're not aces. The lineup is very good, but the rotation doesn't quite stack up in a strong AL East. Of course, this has been said about the Tampa Bay rotation before, but it's simply not that good without Jeremy Hellickson in that two spot behind Price. The bullpen has always been one of the Rays' major strengths, and I don't think this season will be any exception. They've got former A Grant Balfour closing now. I'm not sure if that's an improvement over Fernando Rodney, but it's certainly not a downgrade. While I don't think Tampa Bay is as good as either the Red Sox or the Yankees, they're definitely capable of making life difficult for those two. Joe Maddon has become a master of making something out of nothing, and he's certainly had worse teams than this one. The Rays making the playoffs wouldn't come as a surprise at all, and winning the division is even possible.
Projected Record: 86-76
Projected Lineup: David DeJesus-LF, Wil Myers-RF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, Desmond Jennings-CF, Matt Joyce-DH, Jose Molina-C, Yunel Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: David Price, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi
Closer: Grant Balfour
4. Baltimore Orioles: The talent's there in Baltimore. But after that magical run to the playoffs in 2012, they regressed back to a tie for third place last year. The reason is pitching, which will always be their Achilles heel in the loaded AL East. There's no describing the impact Dylan Bundy will have one he finally establishes himself as the ace of the Baltimore rotation, which could be as early as the end of this season. It's not that Chris Tillman and Ubaldo Jimenez and Wei-Yin Chen are bad. They just don't strike the same fear into you as a David Price or a CC Sabathia or a Jon Lester. I also have no idea what's going on with their bullpen or who the closer is. As for the lineup, which everyone knows is good, bringing in Nelson Cruz was a great signing. They needed another power guy to put behind Davis, who'll be pitched to a lot differently this season after his breakout 2013. Cruz fits the mold of what the Orioles were looking for, and Camden Yards is a perfect hit for him. My concern about the Orioles, though, is Manny Machado's injury. Machado is probably their best player, and who knows how long he's going to be out. Very few people expected him to be ready to start the season, but their replacement options at third base are few and far between. I'm not a big WAR guy. (In fact, I'm not a WAR guy at all. I think it's very stupid.) But Machado's absence will definitely be felt. Same thing about Brian Roberts, who became expendable because of the amount of time he missed with injuries. But Roberts is better than Steve Lombardozzi, who they picked up in a trade with Washington to be their regular second baseman. Steve Lombardozzi shouldn't be an everyday starter on any Major League team. And losing Nate McLouth might not seem like much, but no Roberts and no McLouth means no leadoff hitter. They tried Nick Markakis there during the playoff run two years ago with a certain level of success, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Buck try it again. The heart of the lineup is very solid, but there are some significant holes at the top and bottom. In the AL East, that's a problem.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup: Nick Markakis-RF, J.J. Hardy-SS, Chris Davis-1B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Adam Jones-CF, Matt Wieters-C, Ryan Flaherty-3B, David Lough-LF, Steve Lombardozzi-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Michael Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen, Michael Gonzalez
Closer: Darren O'Day
5. Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays' 2013 season was similar to the Yankees' 2013 season. A ton of expectations, then a ton of injuries and a last-place finish in a disappointing season that never really got off the ground. But if all healthy and playing the way they're capable of, this is a dangerous lineup. It starts at the top with Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera, and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have both been doing their thing long enough now. Throw in Brett Lawrie and Adam Lind, and you know the Blue Jays are going to score some runs. That shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody, mainly because that's not Toronto's problem. The Blue Jay pitching hasn't been at the level it needs to be, and it still isn't. R.A. Dickey had a season for the ages with the Mets in 2012, but they knew it would be tough for him to duplicate and wisely sold high. Dickey was just average last year, and he needs to be more the 2012 Mets version if the Blue Jays want him to go against No. 1 starters. Personally, I think their best pitcher is Mark Buehrle. Buehrle's not the pitcher he was a couple years ago with the White Sox, but he's still a very good Major League starter who's going to give you 200 innings and 15-18 wins. No one knows when J.A. Happ is going to return, so it's not even worth discussing him as a part of this rotation right now. Although a healthy Happ is a very valuable member of this pitching staff. Steve Delabar (somehow) and Brett Cecil were both All-Stars last season, but I still don't think too much of the bullpen. Last season, everyone thought Toronto was going to make a big splash and potentially win the AL East before they ended up finishing last. This year's expectations are much more grounded. The AL East is going to be very tough to win, but if everything goes right, a wild card isn't out of the question. This division is that competitive, and everybody is thatclose.
Projected Record: 76-86
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS, Melky Cabrera-LF, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Adam Lind-1B, Brett Lawrie-3B, Colby Rasmus-CF, Dioner Navarro-C, Ryan Goins-2B
Projected Rotation: R.A. Dickey, Drew Hutchison, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan
Closer: Brett Cecil
So...now that we've run through every division, here's a summary of how I see October playing out:
AL Wild Card: Yankees def. Angels
ALDS: Tigers def. Yankees, Rangers def. Red Sox
ALCS: Rangers def. Tigers
NL Wild Card: Giants def. Braves
NLDS: Dodgers def. Giants, Nationals def. Cardinals
NLCS: Dodgers def. Nationals
World Series: Dodgers def. Rangers
Monday, March 31, 2014
Saturday, March 29, 2014
Rapid-Fire Baseball Preview (AL Central)
With Opening Day right around the corner, it's time to shift the focus of the baseball preview to the division with the biggest clear-cut favorite. I'm of course talking about the AL Central, aka. The Tigers and Four Other Teams. The window is closing in Detroit, but even with Jim Leyland gone and Brad Ausmus now in charge, I don't think it's closing enough for somebody else to come and slam it. Cleveland and Kansas City are getting better, but they're not there yet. Once again, this is Detroit's division to lose.
My biggest questions regarding the AL Central are: How early will the Tigers clinch? How many games will they win the division by? And, will they get homefield throughout the playoffs? (If they'd had it in the ALCS last year, they probably would've won the pennant.) That's not to say the Indians can't repeat their success of last season, when they made that surprising run that saw them host the Wild Card Game and earn Terry Francona Manager of the Year honors. That's also not to say that Kansas City can't pull a 2013 Pirates.
The only AL Central teams that I know have no shot at the playoffs are the White Sox and Twins. Minnesota's in full rebuilding mode and could possibly give Houston a run for its money for worst team in baseball. As for the White Sox, I'm not sure it's possible for them to be as bad as they were last season, but they're not going to be much better, either.
1. Detroit Tigers: They know that Miguel Cabrera is their best player. That's obvious to everyone, and that massive extension just reaffirmed what everybody already knew. But they also didn't want him playing third base anymore. So...they traded Prince Fielder to the Rangers, enabling Miggy to move back to first. Sure, they took away his protection in the lineup, but flipping Fielder for Ian Kinsler was brilliant. Talk about a trade that was mutually beneficial. Kinsler had to get out of Texas, and Detroit had desperate needs for both a second baseman and a bat to stick in front of Cabrera. They also solved the Miggy at third problem while simultaneously making room for top prospect Nick Castellanos at third. Cabrera lost his protection in the lineup, but the Tigers can move enough guys around that it shouldn't really be a problem. And they like Jose Iglesias so much that they made Jhonny Peralta play left field in the playoffs before letting him go to the Cardinals as a free agent. Iglesias is out with stress fractures in both legs, though, so they signed former Marlin Alex Gonzalez to play short in the interim. As for the pitching staff, there's really very little that needs to be said. Max Scherzer is their No. 2 starter. Let me say that again, last year's Cy Young winner who went 21-3 in 2013 is the second-best pitcher on his own team. Scherzer's not going to have that type of year again, but nobody expects him to. And with the ridiculous rotation depth Detroit has, they don't need him to. Anibal Sanchez was the AL ERA champion last season, and he's No. 3. The Tigers had so many quality starting pitchers that they shipped Doug Fister off to Washington simply because they didn't have room for all of them. As for the bullpen, serious upgrade at closer with the acquisition of Joe Nathan. I still love Al Alburquerque and Phil Coke, and Detroit was the landing place of one offensive lineman-sized former Yankee. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
Projected Record: 95-67
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Ian Kinsler-2B, Miguel Cabrera-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, Torii Hunter-RF, Nick Castellanos-3B, Alex Avila-C, Rajai Davis-LF, Alex Gonzalez-SS
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly
Closer: Joe Nathan
2. Kansas City Royals: At some point soon, the Royals are going to be that scary team nobody that's good will want to play. And a division like the AL Central is certainly for the taking if everything goes right and the Tigers stumble. This team's got 2013 Pirates written all over it. For years we've been hearing about all these great prospects in the Royals system. Well, those guys are all in the Majors now, and they're as good as advertised. The most impressive thing, though, is that Kansas City is now willing to spend some money to bring in veteran free agents to play alongside these guys. Case in point Omar Infante. Most people thought he'd end up on the Yankees after Robinson Cano signed with Seattle, then here come the Royals. My concern with Kansas City is the pitching, though. They've got the lineup pieces figured out. No gaping holes there, and the nine guys they've got are all very, very good. But in order to become legitimate contenders, they're going to have to address that pitching staff. They need more than just James Shields, who's not really an ace, but has to be one in Kansas City. Getting another veteran starter to put alongside him would be huge. The bullpen is greatly underrated. Maybe the Royals will be like their Missouri neighbors the Cardinals and get a lot out of their young pitching staff, though. If they do, I think it's not a stretch to think the Royals can challenge for a playoff spot. But again, Detroit is coming closer to the pack. And Kansas City is setting itself up nicely to be the team that takes advantage when they do.
Projected Record: 82-80
Projected Lineup: Lorezo Cain-CF, Omar Infante-2B, Eric Hosmer-1B, Billy Butler-DH, Alex Gordon-LF, Mike Moustakas-3B, Norichika Aoki-RF, Alciedes Escobar-SS, Salvador Perez-C
Projected Rotation: James Shields, Jason Vargas, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen
Closer: Greg Holland
3. Cleveland Indians: Raise you're hand if you don't think the Indians overachieved last year. Nobody? That's what I thought. Years like that happen sometimes, though, and Cleveland's certainly got the firepower to do it again. My biggest concern with the Indians, though, is this reported plan that they want to move Carlos Santana to third base. Why? I have no problem with wanting Yan Gomes to play. He's a better catcher than Santana and has a good enough bat to warrant playing him. And the outfield's full, so they can't move Swisher from first base. So why don't they just make Santana the regular DH? Hopefully this Santana at third experiment doesn't last very long. We hadn't heard of a lot of them until last year, but Cleveland's got a very solid lineup. Oh, and Jason Kipnis is a stud. One injury note that's worth watching is a mild hamstring strain for leadoff hitter/center fielder Michael Bourn (how big did that signing end up being?). If he's out for a while, that could help solve the Santana problem, since it would shift the outfielders around and Swisher could theoretically then play right. My concern with the Indians is the pitching. Outside of Justin Masterson, their rotation doesn't really scare anybody. I don't really know who any of the other four guys are. The bullpen, however, looks like it'll be a strength. John Axford has been liberated from his setup role in St. Louis to be the Indians' closer, and he joins a bullpen that already included the likes of Vinnie Pestano, Scott Atchison and Marc Rzepczynski. Is a repeat of last year possible? Definitely. Is it likely? Probably not. I think it's more likely that the Indians end up somewhere around .500.
Projected Record: 80-82
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Nick Swisher-1B, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, Jason Kipnis-2B, Carlos Santana-DH, Michael Brantley-LF, David Murphy-RF, Yan Gomes-C, Lonnie Chisenhall-3B
Projected Rotation: Justin Masterson, Corey Kluber, Zach McAlister, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco
Closer: John Axford
4. Chicago White Sox: Somewhere along the line, the White Sox went from the only team in this division that could possibly scare the Tigers to fighting to stay out of the cellar. It probably goes back to when they let Mark Buehrle go. Although, the pitching thing isn't that big of an issue. Because Chris Sale has emerged as one of the premier lefties in the game. And I actually like the White Sox rotation better than some of the other ones in this division. I just don't know what to make of their lineup, though. They made a big splash by winning the bidding war for Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu, and they'll plug him right into the middle of the order. Except that means either Paul Konerko or Adam Dunn has to sit (unless they want to give us that entertaining experience of watching Adam Dunn try to play the outfield like we saw in Washington again). They don't really have much outside their trio of first basemen, either. Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham are good middle infielders, but they don't bring much offensively. And if you've got Dayan Viciedo and Avisail Garcia as your big RBI guys, that's when you know you've got problems. The starting pitching will be fine, but the bullpen and the lineup will be what holds the White Sox back. They'll probably be the best team in Chicago, but that's probably little consolation. That's the only title they're gonna get anything close to winning this year, though. As for the AL Central, the White Sox will be closer to the bottom than the top.
Projected Record: 73-89
Projected Lineup: Alejandro De Aza-CF, Gordon Beckham-2B, Jose Abreu-1B, Adam Dunn-DH, Dayan Viciedo-LF, Alexei Ramirez-SS, Avisail Garcia-RF, Conor Gillaspie-3B, Tyler Flowers-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Felipe Paulino, Joe Quintana, Erik Johnson, John Danks
Closer: Matt Lindstrom
5. Minnesota Twins: It was starting to become apparent when they traded both of their center fielders prior to last season. Then it became abundantly clear that the Twins were going into full-blown rebuilding mode when they traded Justin Morneau. No more M & M Boys that had defined the Twins for much of this century. Joe Mauer's still there, but he's got a change ahead of him, too, with a move to first base this season. I'm not saying I completely disagree with it. He is the face of the franchise, and he was so injury-prone that they had to get him out from behind the plate eventually. But I just didn't think it would be this soon. And it ruined Mauer's chances of being this year's David Wright. The All-Star ambassador/guaranteed starter from the home team. If he was still a catcher, I would've been shocked if he hadn't been elected as the starter. But at first base, the deepest position in the American League, he might not even make the team. Outside of Mauer, the lineup consists of Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel and not much else. As for the pitching staff, it consists of a lot of other teams' rejects. Ricky Nolasco's no higher than a No. 3, maybe a No. 2, anywhere else, but in Minnesota he's the ace. But with the low expectations that come with playing for the Twins, that also gives these guys a chance to shine. And, for the record, now that he's out of Yankee Stadium, I think Phil Hughes is going to have a fantastic year. It's a shame that closer Glen Perkins isn't going to have many save opportunities. It's an even bigger shame that in a year when the Twins are hosting the All-Star Game, their closer could end up being their only All-Star. It's going to be a long year in Minnesota. The Twins might be looking at 100 losses.
Projected Record: 64-98
Projected Lineup: Aaron Hicks-CF, Brian Dozier-2B, Joe Mauer-1B, Josh Willingham-LF, Jason Kubel-DH, Trevor Plouffe-3B, Kurt Suzuki-C, Oswaldo Arcia-RF, Pedro Florimon-SS
Projected Rotation: Ricky Nolasco, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson
Closer: Glen Perkins
My biggest questions regarding the AL Central are: How early will the Tigers clinch? How many games will they win the division by? And, will they get homefield throughout the playoffs? (If they'd had it in the ALCS last year, they probably would've won the pennant.) That's not to say the Indians can't repeat their success of last season, when they made that surprising run that saw them host the Wild Card Game and earn Terry Francona Manager of the Year honors. That's also not to say that Kansas City can't pull a 2013 Pirates.
The only AL Central teams that I know have no shot at the playoffs are the White Sox and Twins. Minnesota's in full rebuilding mode and could possibly give Houston a run for its money for worst team in baseball. As for the White Sox, I'm not sure it's possible for them to be as bad as they were last season, but they're not going to be much better, either.
1. Detroit Tigers: They know that Miguel Cabrera is their best player. That's obvious to everyone, and that massive extension just reaffirmed what everybody already knew. But they also didn't want him playing third base anymore. So...they traded Prince Fielder to the Rangers, enabling Miggy to move back to first. Sure, they took away his protection in the lineup, but flipping Fielder for Ian Kinsler was brilliant. Talk about a trade that was mutually beneficial. Kinsler had to get out of Texas, and Detroit had desperate needs for both a second baseman and a bat to stick in front of Cabrera. They also solved the Miggy at third problem while simultaneously making room for top prospect Nick Castellanos at third. Cabrera lost his protection in the lineup, but the Tigers can move enough guys around that it shouldn't really be a problem. And they like Jose Iglesias so much that they made Jhonny Peralta play left field in the playoffs before letting him go to the Cardinals as a free agent. Iglesias is out with stress fractures in both legs, though, so they signed former Marlin Alex Gonzalez to play short in the interim. As for the pitching staff, there's really very little that needs to be said. Max Scherzer is their No. 2 starter. Let me say that again, last year's Cy Young winner who went 21-3 in 2013 is the second-best pitcher on his own team. Scherzer's not going to have that type of year again, but nobody expects him to. And with the ridiculous rotation depth Detroit has, they don't need him to. Anibal Sanchez was the AL ERA champion last season, and he's No. 3. The Tigers had so many quality starting pitchers that they shipped Doug Fister off to Washington simply because they didn't have room for all of them. As for the bullpen, serious upgrade at closer with the acquisition of Joe Nathan. I still love Al Alburquerque and Phil Coke, and Detroit was the landing place of one offensive lineman-sized former Yankee. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
Projected Record: 95-67
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Ian Kinsler-2B, Miguel Cabrera-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, Torii Hunter-RF, Nick Castellanos-3B, Alex Avila-C, Rajai Davis-LF, Alex Gonzalez-SS
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly
Closer: Joe Nathan
2. Kansas City Royals: At some point soon, the Royals are going to be that scary team nobody that's good will want to play. And a division like the AL Central is certainly for the taking if everything goes right and the Tigers stumble. This team's got 2013 Pirates written all over it. For years we've been hearing about all these great prospects in the Royals system. Well, those guys are all in the Majors now, and they're as good as advertised. The most impressive thing, though, is that Kansas City is now willing to spend some money to bring in veteran free agents to play alongside these guys. Case in point Omar Infante. Most people thought he'd end up on the Yankees after Robinson Cano signed with Seattle, then here come the Royals. My concern with Kansas City is the pitching, though. They've got the lineup pieces figured out. No gaping holes there, and the nine guys they've got are all very, very good. But in order to become legitimate contenders, they're going to have to address that pitching staff. They need more than just James Shields, who's not really an ace, but has to be one in Kansas City. Getting another veteran starter to put alongside him would be huge. The bullpen is greatly underrated. Maybe the Royals will be like their Missouri neighbors the Cardinals and get a lot out of their young pitching staff, though. If they do, I think it's not a stretch to think the Royals can challenge for a playoff spot. But again, Detroit is coming closer to the pack. And Kansas City is setting itself up nicely to be the team that takes advantage when they do.
Projected Record: 82-80
Projected Lineup: Lorezo Cain-CF, Omar Infante-2B, Eric Hosmer-1B, Billy Butler-DH, Alex Gordon-LF, Mike Moustakas-3B, Norichika Aoki-RF, Alciedes Escobar-SS, Salvador Perez-C
Projected Rotation: James Shields, Jason Vargas, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen
Closer: Greg Holland
3. Cleveland Indians: Raise you're hand if you don't think the Indians overachieved last year. Nobody? That's what I thought. Years like that happen sometimes, though, and Cleveland's certainly got the firepower to do it again. My biggest concern with the Indians, though, is this reported plan that they want to move Carlos Santana to third base. Why? I have no problem with wanting Yan Gomes to play. He's a better catcher than Santana and has a good enough bat to warrant playing him. And the outfield's full, so they can't move Swisher from first base. So why don't they just make Santana the regular DH? Hopefully this Santana at third experiment doesn't last very long. We hadn't heard of a lot of them until last year, but Cleveland's got a very solid lineup. Oh, and Jason Kipnis is a stud. One injury note that's worth watching is a mild hamstring strain for leadoff hitter/center fielder Michael Bourn (how big did that signing end up being?). If he's out for a while, that could help solve the Santana problem, since it would shift the outfielders around and Swisher could theoretically then play right. My concern with the Indians is the pitching. Outside of Justin Masterson, their rotation doesn't really scare anybody. I don't really know who any of the other four guys are. The bullpen, however, looks like it'll be a strength. John Axford has been liberated from his setup role in St. Louis to be the Indians' closer, and he joins a bullpen that already included the likes of Vinnie Pestano, Scott Atchison and Marc Rzepczynski. Is a repeat of last year possible? Definitely. Is it likely? Probably not. I think it's more likely that the Indians end up somewhere around .500.
Projected Record: 80-82
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Nick Swisher-1B, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, Jason Kipnis-2B, Carlos Santana-DH, Michael Brantley-LF, David Murphy-RF, Yan Gomes-C, Lonnie Chisenhall-3B
Projected Rotation: Justin Masterson, Corey Kluber, Zach McAlister, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco
Closer: John Axford
4. Chicago White Sox: Somewhere along the line, the White Sox went from the only team in this division that could possibly scare the Tigers to fighting to stay out of the cellar. It probably goes back to when they let Mark Buehrle go. Although, the pitching thing isn't that big of an issue. Because Chris Sale has emerged as one of the premier lefties in the game. And I actually like the White Sox rotation better than some of the other ones in this division. I just don't know what to make of their lineup, though. They made a big splash by winning the bidding war for Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu, and they'll plug him right into the middle of the order. Except that means either Paul Konerko or Adam Dunn has to sit (unless they want to give us that entertaining experience of watching Adam Dunn try to play the outfield like we saw in Washington again). They don't really have much outside their trio of first basemen, either. Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham are good middle infielders, but they don't bring much offensively. And if you've got Dayan Viciedo and Avisail Garcia as your big RBI guys, that's when you know you've got problems. The starting pitching will be fine, but the bullpen and the lineup will be what holds the White Sox back. They'll probably be the best team in Chicago, but that's probably little consolation. That's the only title they're gonna get anything close to winning this year, though. As for the AL Central, the White Sox will be closer to the bottom than the top.
Projected Record: 73-89
Projected Lineup: Alejandro De Aza-CF, Gordon Beckham-2B, Jose Abreu-1B, Adam Dunn-DH, Dayan Viciedo-LF, Alexei Ramirez-SS, Avisail Garcia-RF, Conor Gillaspie-3B, Tyler Flowers-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Felipe Paulino, Joe Quintana, Erik Johnson, John Danks
Closer: Matt Lindstrom
5. Minnesota Twins: It was starting to become apparent when they traded both of their center fielders prior to last season. Then it became abundantly clear that the Twins were going into full-blown rebuilding mode when they traded Justin Morneau. No more M & M Boys that had defined the Twins for much of this century. Joe Mauer's still there, but he's got a change ahead of him, too, with a move to first base this season. I'm not saying I completely disagree with it. He is the face of the franchise, and he was so injury-prone that they had to get him out from behind the plate eventually. But I just didn't think it would be this soon. And it ruined Mauer's chances of being this year's David Wright. The All-Star ambassador/guaranteed starter from the home team. If he was still a catcher, I would've been shocked if he hadn't been elected as the starter. But at first base, the deepest position in the American League, he might not even make the team. Outside of Mauer, the lineup consists of Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel and not much else. As for the pitching staff, it consists of a lot of other teams' rejects. Ricky Nolasco's no higher than a No. 3, maybe a No. 2, anywhere else, but in Minnesota he's the ace. But with the low expectations that come with playing for the Twins, that also gives these guys a chance to shine. And, for the record, now that he's out of Yankee Stadium, I think Phil Hughes is going to have a fantastic year. It's a shame that closer Glen Perkins isn't going to have many save opportunities. It's an even bigger shame that in a year when the Twins are hosting the All-Star Game, their closer could end up being their only All-Star. It's going to be a long year in Minnesota. The Twins might be looking at 100 losses.
Projected Record: 64-98
Projected Lineup: Aaron Hicks-CF, Brian Dozier-2B, Joe Mauer-1B, Josh Willingham-LF, Jason Kubel-DH, Trevor Plouffe-3B, Kurt Suzuki-C, Oswaldo Arcia-RF, Pedro Florimon-SS
Projected Rotation: Ricky Nolasco, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson
Closer: Glen Perkins
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Rapid-Fire Baseball Preview (AL West)
The baseball season is getting ever closer. So close in fact that my Yankees season tickets arrived yesterday. We're only four days away! (Although, that's also the day of the How I Met Your Mother finale, which makes me sad.)
As for the traditional Joe Brackets baseball preview, we've reached the halfway point. All done with the National League, and today we start the AL. And the AL West is one of the most intriguing divisions in baseball. The Rangers have greatly underachieved since their back-to-back World Series losses. But they've gotten significantly better with their offseason moves, and I think they're going to end Oakland's two-year reign atop the division. I'm also starting to come around on Oakland. I've finally accepted the fact that they're good. Meanwhile, the Angels are eventually going to figure it out, you'd think. They've got too much talent to keep finishing third every year.
Seattle's on the verge of getting better, too. Fortunately for the Mariners, it's difficult for them to finish last now that the Astros are in the division. But I also hope Robinson Cano enjoys winning 75 games each year...because that's about all he can look forward to. If he actually wanted the chance to play baseball in October, he should've thought about more than the money. Anyway...Houston will probably be better this year, too. Not enough to be competitive and probably not enough to avoid losing 100, but they might at least resemble a Major League team this year.
1. Texas Rangers: The Rangers have a bad history of mistreating people when they no longer find them useful. First it was Michael Young. Then Ian Kinsler. I absolutely loved it when Kinsler said he hoped Texas would go 0-162 this year. That's obviously not going to happen, but there's no love lost between the Rangers and their former second baseman. But with that being said, I absolutely LOVE the Kinsler for Prince trade, and I think that might be the difference that gets Texas by Oakland for the first time in three years. By trading Kinsler, they finally solved their Jurickson Profar problem. They finally have a place to play him. So of course, he's starting the year on the DL. They also plugging the only gaping hole they had in their lineup by bringing in Prince to play first. Letting Nelson Cruz go was necessary, especially after the Biogenesis thing. Besides, they've got Alex Rios and Leonys Martin, and they were trying to find a place for Engel Beltre. But the real difference with this team (other than the addition of Prince) is the addition of Shin-Soo Choo. He's exactly what the Rangers needed, and the perfect guy to put at the top of that lineup. It's interesting that they sent Neftali Feliz down, but with Joakim Soria closing, it's unclear what his role would've been anyway. A lot has been made of the fact that Yu Darvish won't make his Opening Day start, but I think that's much ado about nothing. Darvish will start the season on the DL, but all indications are that this is simply precautionary and he'll be fine. The rest of the rotation, especially without Derek Holland, is a little shakier, and that might be the thing that holds the Rangers back. I think they'll get just enough out of their pitching staff, though. On paper (and talent-wise), Texas is the best team in this division.
Projected Record: 91-71
Projected Lineup: Shin-Soo Choo-LF, Elvis Andrus-SS, Adrian Beltre-3B, Prince Fielder-1B, Alex Rios-RF, Mitch Moreland-DH, J.P. Arencibia-C, Donnie Murphy-2B, Leonys Martin-CF
Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish, Tanner Scheppers, Martin Perez, Joe Saunders, Matt Harrison
Closer: Joakim Soria
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California: There's eventually going to be a point when the Angels aren't the most underachieving team in baseball, right? Either that, or Anaheim simply has the most overrated roster out there. But I look at this team and wonder how it's been two years of third place finishes since signing Albert. I will give them credit for not overspending on a free agent (Cano, Robinson) this offseason. Instead their big move was a trade. One which should help them improve at a couple different positions. They sent Peter Bourjos to the Cardinals for David Freese. But finally getting over this delusion that Bourjos is good, they're no longer tempted to move their best player (Mike Trout) from his best position (center field). It also freed up left field for J.B. Shuck, who deserves to play every day. And third base has been a black hole for the last couple seasons. Freese had worn out his welcome in St. Louis, but Anaheim gives him a great chance for a fresh start. Trading Mark Trumbo to the Diamondbacks didn't make a whole lot of sense on the surface, but it gives them the chance to spread around DH at-bats (which Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton are going to need to use somewhat regularly) while also not subjecting themselves to Trumbo's terrible defense at whatever position they decided to put him. As for a primary DH, that role now goes to Raul Ibanez, who's still got it well past 40. Jered Weaver doesn't get enough credit for being the staff ace, but he and C.J. Wilson provide a very good lefty-righty 1-2 punch. Outside of closer Ernesto Frieri, the bullpen's not great. I have a feeling that the Angels are a team on a mission this year, though. After all, if they don't make the playoffs again, it's probably Mike Scioscia's last in Anaheim.
Projected Record: 87-75 (Wild Card)
Projected Lineup: Mike Trout-CF, Erick Aybar-SS, Albert Pujols-1B, Josh Hamilton-RF, Raul Ibanez-DH, David Freese-3B, Howie Kendrick-2B, Chris Iannetta-C, J.B. Shuck-LF
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Hector Santiago, Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs
Closer: Ernesto Frieri
3. Oakland Athletics: I know I say this every year, but I don't get the big deal about the Oakland A's. I simply don't understand how this team is so good. But in the interest of looking like less of an idiot when they inevitably win 95 games again this season, I'll at least finally acknowledge that they are good. And I am starting to see it. Yoenis Cespedes is a beast and Josh Donaldson is a star in the making. Mostly, though, they're winning the way they did in the Moneyball era. They're getting the most out of guys that everyone else undervalues. I think that's the secret. On their own, none of these guys are that good. But you put these guys in Oakland, and suddenly something changes. They all complement each other very well. This is one of the best "teams" in the game. And just like in the early part of this century when they had Hudson, Mulder and Zito, the young starting pitchers are really what make the A's go. This time that young rotation consists of Sonny Gray, Dan Straily and Tommy Milone. But I also like what they've done to enhance that group. Scott Kazmir resurrected his career last season in Cleveland, and he's been added as a veteran presence. It's the bullpen, though, that's really impressive. They plucked closer Jim Johnson away from Baltimore, and they've also added former Padres setup man Luke Gregerson to go along with the already strong group led by Sean Doolittle and Ryan Cook. I'm probably underestimating the A's once again. And I probably shouldn't be surprised when they end up winning the division yet again. This is becoming a common theme. Once again, though, I can't say I see them finishing higher than third. I just think the Rangers and Angels are both better. Knowing the A's, though, they'll prove me wrong.
Projected Record: 86-76
Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp-CF, Eric Sogard-2B, Josh Donaldson-3B, Yoenis Cespedes-LF, Josh Reddick-RF, Brandon Moss-1B, John Jaso-DH, Derek Norris-C, Jed Lowrie-SS
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Dan Straily, Tommy Milone, Jesse Chavez
Closer: Jim Johnson
4. Seattle Mariners: I hope they have fun paying Robinson Cano $30 million a year when he's 40 and completely useless as anything other than a DH. Evidently they didn't learn from their division rivals that overspending on the biggest name available out there in free agency isn't necessarily the best move to make. But I will give the Mariners credit for trying. For the first time since Ichiro, they actually have an established star player in his prime. And they've had enough high draft picks recently that the talent around Cano isn't that terrible, even if some of them have yet to pan out the way many had planned/hoped they would. Seattle's going to need these guys to all play the way they did to get drafted that high. Because they don't have the money to go out and get free agents. That's really the biggest problem with committing so much money to Cano (other than the fact that he's not worth what they're giving him). The Mariners needed more than just one superstar to challenge for the division title. Felix Hernandez still only pitches once every five days, and they needed just as much help for their pitching staff as they did for their anemic lineup. Especially with Jesus Montero proving to be more and more of a bust with each passing year, I bet they're regretting trading Michael Pineda. Because that rotation behind King Felix is pathetic. The bullpen is only slightly better, although the closer position has been significantly upgraded with the acquisition of former Ray Fernando Rodney. Even with Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano, the Mariners aren't going to challenge for the division title. They've got enough talented young guys to make them think that they will before Cano's 10-year contract is up, though. As for this year, at least they've still got the Astros to keep them out of the cellar.
Projected Record: 74-88
Projected Lineup: Michael Saunders-CF, Dustin Ackley-LF, Robinson Cano-2B, Kyle Seager-3B, Corey Hart-DH, Logan Morrison-RF, Justin Smoak-1B, Mike Zunino-C, Brad Miller-SS
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker
Closer: Fernando Rodney
5. Houston Astros: The Astros are going to finish last. You know it. I know it. They know it. But I also have a feeling they're going to be slightly more competitive this season. Slowly but surely, they're starting to put together the roster that they want in Houston This season, they'll mix in a veteran presence to go along with all those new guys. That veteran presence includes center fielder Dexter Fowler, who needed to get out of Colorado, but is a perfect fit for Houston. Same thing with Matt Dominguez. He's only going to get better with the chance to start everyday and not having to worry about getting pulled if he's not hitting. That's the benefit of a team like Houston. There are plenty of at-bats to be had for younger players, and you'll be allowed to make mistakes. And bad mistakes, they'll make a few (Sorry, just saw that "We Are the Champions" commercial.) There are a grand total of three guys on the Houston pitching staff that I've ever heard of, and two of them are relievers (Chad Qualls and Jesse Crain). So, even if they had a lineup, that would be a big problem. The Astros aren't going to win many games with their pitching staff the way it currently is. There is some good news, though. A lot of their prospects are almost Major League ready, and the Twins are also really bad. The Astros might have some competition for worst team in the American League. They might even avoid 100 losses. Regardless, their second year in the Junior Circuit should be better than the first.
Projected Record: 59-103
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Dexter Fowler-CF, Matt Dominguez-3B, Chris Carter-DH, Jason Castro-C, Robbie Grossman-LF, L.J. Hoes-RF, Jesus Guzman-1B, Jonathan Villar-SS
Projected Rotation: Scott Feldman, Jarred Cosart, Lucas Harrell, Dallas Keuchel, Brett Oberholtzer
Closer: Chad Qualls
As for the traditional Joe Brackets baseball preview, we've reached the halfway point. All done with the National League, and today we start the AL. And the AL West is one of the most intriguing divisions in baseball. The Rangers have greatly underachieved since their back-to-back World Series losses. But they've gotten significantly better with their offseason moves, and I think they're going to end Oakland's two-year reign atop the division. I'm also starting to come around on Oakland. I've finally accepted the fact that they're good. Meanwhile, the Angels are eventually going to figure it out, you'd think. They've got too much talent to keep finishing third every year.
Seattle's on the verge of getting better, too. Fortunately for the Mariners, it's difficult for them to finish last now that the Astros are in the division. But I also hope Robinson Cano enjoys winning 75 games each year...because that's about all he can look forward to. If he actually wanted the chance to play baseball in October, he should've thought about more than the money. Anyway...Houston will probably be better this year, too. Not enough to be competitive and probably not enough to avoid losing 100, but they might at least resemble a Major League team this year.
1. Texas Rangers: The Rangers have a bad history of mistreating people when they no longer find them useful. First it was Michael Young. Then Ian Kinsler. I absolutely loved it when Kinsler said he hoped Texas would go 0-162 this year. That's obviously not going to happen, but there's no love lost between the Rangers and their former second baseman. But with that being said, I absolutely LOVE the Kinsler for Prince trade, and I think that might be the difference that gets Texas by Oakland for the first time in three years. By trading Kinsler, they finally solved their Jurickson Profar problem. They finally have a place to play him. So of course, he's starting the year on the DL. They also plugging the only gaping hole they had in their lineup by bringing in Prince to play first. Letting Nelson Cruz go was necessary, especially after the Biogenesis thing. Besides, they've got Alex Rios and Leonys Martin, and they were trying to find a place for Engel Beltre. But the real difference with this team (other than the addition of Prince) is the addition of Shin-Soo Choo. He's exactly what the Rangers needed, and the perfect guy to put at the top of that lineup. It's interesting that they sent Neftali Feliz down, but with Joakim Soria closing, it's unclear what his role would've been anyway. A lot has been made of the fact that Yu Darvish won't make his Opening Day start, but I think that's much ado about nothing. Darvish will start the season on the DL, but all indications are that this is simply precautionary and he'll be fine. The rest of the rotation, especially without Derek Holland, is a little shakier, and that might be the thing that holds the Rangers back. I think they'll get just enough out of their pitching staff, though. On paper (and talent-wise), Texas is the best team in this division.
Projected Record: 91-71
Projected Lineup: Shin-Soo Choo-LF, Elvis Andrus-SS, Adrian Beltre-3B, Prince Fielder-1B, Alex Rios-RF, Mitch Moreland-DH, J.P. Arencibia-C, Donnie Murphy-2B, Leonys Martin-CF
Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish, Tanner Scheppers, Martin Perez, Joe Saunders, Matt Harrison
Closer: Joakim Soria
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California: There's eventually going to be a point when the Angels aren't the most underachieving team in baseball, right? Either that, or Anaheim simply has the most overrated roster out there. But I look at this team and wonder how it's been two years of third place finishes since signing Albert. I will give them credit for not overspending on a free agent (Cano, Robinson) this offseason. Instead their big move was a trade. One which should help them improve at a couple different positions. They sent Peter Bourjos to the Cardinals for David Freese. But finally getting over this delusion that Bourjos is good, they're no longer tempted to move their best player (Mike Trout) from his best position (center field). It also freed up left field for J.B. Shuck, who deserves to play every day. And third base has been a black hole for the last couple seasons. Freese had worn out his welcome in St. Louis, but Anaheim gives him a great chance for a fresh start. Trading Mark Trumbo to the Diamondbacks didn't make a whole lot of sense on the surface, but it gives them the chance to spread around DH at-bats (which Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton are going to need to use somewhat regularly) while also not subjecting themselves to Trumbo's terrible defense at whatever position they decided to put him. As for a primary DH, that role now goes to Raul Ibanez, who's still got it well past 40. Jered Weaver doesn't get enough credit for being the staff ace, but he and C.J. Wilson provide a very good lefty-righty 1-2 punch. Outside of closer Ernesto Frieri, the bullpen's not great. I have a feeling that the Angels are a team on a mission this year, though. After all, if they don't make the playoffs again, it's probably Mike Scioscia's last in Anaheim.
Projected Record: 87-75 (Wild Card)
Projected Lineup: Mike Trout-CF, Erick Aybar-SS, Albert Pujols-1B, Josh Hamilton-RF, Raul Ibanez-DH, David Freese-3B, Howie Kendrick-2B, Chris Iannetta-C, J.B. Shuck-LF
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Hector Santiago, Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs
Closer: Ernesto Frieri
3. Oakland Athletics: I know I say this every year, but I don't get the big deal about the Oakland A's. I simply don't understand how this team is so good. But in the interest of looking like less of an idiot when they inevitably win 95 games again this season, I'll at least finally acknowledge that they are good. And I am starting to see it. Yoenis Cespedes is a beast and Josh Donaldson is a star in the making. Mostly, though, they're winning the way they did in the Moneyball era. They're getting the most out of guys that everyone else undervalues. I think that's the secret. On their own, none of these guys are that good. But you put these guys in Oakland, and suddenly something changes. They all complement each other very well. This is one of the best "teams" in the game. And just like in the early part of this century when they had Hudson, Mulder and Zito, the young starting pitchers are really what make the A's go. This time that young rotation consists of Sonny Gray, Dan Straily and Tommy Milone. But I also like what they've done to enhance that group. Scott Kazmir resurrected his career last season in Cleveland, and he's been added as a veteran presence. It's the bullpen, though, that's really impressive. They plucked closer Jim Johnson away from Baltimore, and they've also added former Padres setup man Luke Gregerson to go along with the already strong group led by Sean Doolittle and Ryan Cook. I'm probably underestimating the A's once again. And I probably shouldn't be surprised when they end up winning the division yet again. This is becoming a common theme. Once again, though, I can't say I see them finishing higher than third. I just think the Rangers and Angels are both better. Knowing the A's, though, they'll prove me wrong.
Projected Record: 86-76
Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp-CF, Eric Sogard-2B, Josh Donaldson-3B, Yoenis Cespedes-LF, Josh Reddick-RF, Brandon Moss-1B, John Jaso-DH, Derek Norris-C, Jed Lowrie-SS
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Dan Straily, Tommy Milone, Jesse Chavez
Closer: Jim Johnson
4. Seattle Mariners: I hope they have fun paying Robinson Cano $30 million a year when he's 40 and completely useless as anything other than a DH. Evidently they didn't learn from their division rivals that overspending on the biggest name available out there in free agency isn't necessarily the best move to make. But I will give the Mariners credit for trying. For the first time since Ichiro, they actually have an established star player in his prime. And they've had enough high draft picks recently that the talent around Cano isn't that terrible, even if some of them have yet to pan out the way many had planned/hoped they would. Seattle's going to need these guys to all play the way they did to get drafted that high. Because they don't have the money to go out and get free agents. That's really the biggest problem with committing so much money to Cano (other than the fact that he's not worth what they're giving him). The Mariners needed more than just one superstar to challenge for the division title. Felix Hernandez still only pitches once every five days, and they needed just as much help for their pitching staff as they did for their anemic lineup. Especially with Jesus Montero proving to be more and more of a bust with each passing year, I bet they're regretting trading Michael Pineda. Because that rotation behind King Felix is pathetic. The bullpen is only slightly better, although the closer position has been significantly upgraded with the acquisition of former Ray Fernando Rodney. Even with Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano, the Mariners aren't going to challenge for the division title. They've got enough talented young guys to make them think that they will before Cano's 10-year contract is up, though. As for this year, at least they've still got the Astros to keep them out of the cellar.
Projected Record: 74-88
Projected Lineup: Michael Saunders-CF, Dustin Ackley-LF, Robinson Cano-2B, Kyle Seager-3B, Corey Hart-DH, Logan Morrison-RF, Justin Smoak-1B, Mike Zunino-C, Brad Miller-SS
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker
Closer: Fernando Rodney
5. Houston Astros: The Astros are going to finish last. You know it. I know it. They know it. But I also have a feeling they're going to be slightly more competitive this season. Slowly but surely, they're starting to put together the roster that they want in Houston This season, they'll mix in a veteran presence to go along with all those new guys. That veteran presence includes center fielder Dexter Fowler, who needed to get out of Colorado, but is a perfect fit for Houston. Same thing with Matt Dominguez. He's only going to get better with the chance to start everyday and not having to worry about getting pulled if he's not hitting. That's the benefit of a team like Houston. There are plenty of at-bats to be had for younger players, and you'll be allowed to make mistakes. And bad mistakes, they'll make a few (Sorry, just saw that "We Are the Champions" commercial.) There are a grand total of three guys on the Houston pitching staff that I've ever heard of, and two of them are relievers (Chad Qualls and Jesse Crain). So, even if they had a lineup, that would be a big problem. The Astros aren't going to win many games with their pitching staff the way it currently is. There is some good news, though. A lot of their prospects are almost Major League ready, and the Twins are also really bad. The Astros might have some competition for worst team in the American League. They might even avoid 100 losses. Regardless, their second year in the Junior Circuit should be better than the first.
Projected Record: 59-103
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Dexter Fowler-CF, Matt Dominguez-3B, Chris Carter-DH, Jason Castro-C, Robbie Grossman-LF, L.J. Hoes-RF, Jesus Guzman-1B, Jonathan Villar-SS
Projected Rotation: Scott Feldman, Jarred Cosart, Lucas Harrell, Dallas Keuchel, Brett Oberholtzer
Closer: Chad Qualls
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Rapid-Fire Baseball Preview (NL East)
Today it's time to wrap up the National League with the Eastern Division. The NL East has an interesting collection of teams. There's a Nationals squad that greatly underachieved last season, a very good Braves team that probably overachieved a little, a rebuilding Phillies squad, the Marlins and the Mets. Miami is still a glorified Quadruple-A team, while the Mets are...I don't really know what. I do expect them to be better this season, but it's next year when the Mets are going to be really scary. That's when they'll have the sick Harvey-Wheeler-Syndergaard rotation in place.
As for who's going to win this division, I've gotta say it'll be a two-team race between Washington and Atlanta. But if the 2012 Nationals show up instead of the 2013 Nationals, that two-team race won't be much of a race. Talent-wise, Washington is far-and-away the best team in this division. That doesn't mean Atlanta can't make a return trip to the playoffs, though. In fact, I think the Braves will end up in the Wild Card Game.
The Mets will finish third, but the bottom of the division is harder to call. The Phillies all got old quickly. And all at once. So much so that Roy Halladay retired. But they're at least still trying, which is enough to make me think they'll finish ahead of the Marlins. Things are getting better in Miami, though. They won't be as painful to watch this season. They might even avoid 100 losses.
1. Washington Nationals: It's almost not fair how good the Nationals are. Washington is loaded at every position and, even though they didn't need him at all, they added Nate McLouth as a fourth outfielder. Nate McLouth, who could easily be a starter anywhere else in the Majors, is the fourth outfielder in Washington. Oh yeah, and the Nationals' starting outfield of Bryce Harper, Denard Span and Jayson Werth ain't too shabby either. They're pretty stacked in the infield, too. Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche have the corners locked down, while I love that trio of Ian Desmond, Anthony Rendon and Danny Espinosa. They can all play anywhere. The Nationals are going to do plenty of hitting, but they're not going to need it. Because they have an outstanding rotation. Gio Gonzalez would be a No. 1 starter anywhere else. But Washington has Stephen Strasburg. And did I mention they traded for Doug Fister...then promptly inserted him into the No. 4 spot in the rotation? Their rotation is so deep that Ross Detwiler is now in the bullpen, further bolstering an already solid unit. Detwiler, Craig Stammen, Jerry Blevins and Tyler Clippard, along with closer Rafael Soriano and closer-in-waiting Drew Storen. Like I said, I love this Washington team. The Nationals are very, very good and are going to win a lot of games this season. I'd even be willing to say that this might be the second-best team in the National League, and potentially the only one that can beat the Dodgers in October. The World Series hasn't been to the nation's capital since 1933, and the Expos/Nationals franchise is one of two to have never been there. That could change this season.
Projected Record: 83-69
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Ian Desmond-SS, Bryce Harper-LF, Ryan Zimmerman-3B, Adam LaRoche-1B, Jayson Werth-RF, Anthony Rendon-2B, Wilson Ramos-C
Projected Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Drew Storen, Tanner Roark
Closer: Rafael Soriano
2. Atlanta Braves: If the Nationals stumble, expect the Braves to be right there to pounce. Atlanta will certainly be hurt by the loss of Brian McCann, but they're also relying on a couple of bounce-back seasons from some of their returning veterans. Specifically, I'm talking about Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton. How bad was the B.J. Upton signing last season? Well, he had the lowest batting average of any qualifier in the NL, and he was benched in the playoffs for Evan Gattis. I thought one of the reasons the Braves let McCann walk was because they were trying to open up a position for Gattis, a catcher by trade. Which is why it's interesting that they added Ryan Doumit to do a bulk of the catching. That means they still need to find a place for Gattis, and with Freddie Freeman entrenched at first, that leaves the outfield as the only possibility (unless they want to try him at third). I'm really curious to see how Fredi Gonzalez will work this day in and day out. My biggest concern with the Braves, though is on the mound. Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy both had Tommy John surgery and Jonny Venters will be back from his after the All-Star break. It's crazy to think of the number of injuries they've had on that pitching staff. It's also crazy to think they only have four definite starters right now (because Mike Minor is also out). And that includes Aaron Harang, who was literally just released by Cleveland, but will probably start the season in Atlanta's rotation. The bullpen is still one of their great strengths, and Craig Kimbrel is one of the best closers in the game. They've also been smart about the way they've used their bullpen since its overuse cost them a playoff spot three years ago. This isn't the Braves' Glory Days anymore. But in the year Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Bobby Cox all go into the Hall of Fame, it would be fitting to see them start a new mini-dynasty and make a third straight playoff appearance.
Projected Record: 90-72 (Wild Card)
Projected Lineup: B.J. Upton-CF, Jason Heyward-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Justin Upton-LF, Evan Gattis-C, Dan Uggla-2B, Chris Johnson-3B, Andrelton Simmons-SS
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang, Alex Wood, David Hale
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
3. New York Mets: Sandy Alderson has said the Mets will win 90 games this year. They're only 76 away, so that's definitely doable. All kidding aside, though, the Mets should be a better team this year. They probably won't challenge for the NL East title, but they're not going to be anywhere near the bottom either. Third place and a record right around .500 (a few games over/under) seem about right. They're also primed to be very serious contenders in 2015. Especially if Matt Harvey is able to pitch at all this season. The Mets are pitching-rich, which is good when your home park is Citi Field. And I'd bet that Noah Syndergaard makes his debut either in late June or somewhere near the All-Star Break, getting him ready to be that valuable piece next season. I'm also including Jonathan Niese and Dillon Gee in that 2015 rotation. I love Jon Niese and think he's incredibly underrated. He also doesn't get enough credit as the only lefty in that rotation. Bartolo Colon is usually good in his first year with a team before sucking in his second. Since the Mets only need him for one year, that should work out nicely. But they also addressed their biggest problem and upgraded the lineup to finally put someone around David Wright. That power guy is Curtis Granderson, although we'll have to see if his power was merely the result of playing across town for four years. They also rescued Chris Young from Oakland. Hopefully neither one turns into Jason Bay. I love Lagares in center, and if Chris Young doesn't work out, they can simply swap Youngs and put Eric in there. The Mets are starting to have the nice problem of figuring out where to put guys. Especially now that they have Travis d'Arnaud locked in behind the plate. At first base, they've got the underachieving tag-team of Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. I might be the only one who sees it (mainly because he goes yard every time I go to a Mets game), but I still think Ike Davis can be a very productive Major League player. He's the Mets' Mark Sanchez. But if he struggles again and the Mets finally get tired of him, look out. Because I can see Ike Davis becoming a star if he ever gets out of New York.
Projected Record: 76-86
Projected Lineup: Juan Lagares-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, David Wright-3B, Curtis Granderson-LF, Ike Davis-1B, Chris Young-RF, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Ruben Tejada-SS
Projected Rotation: Jonathan Niese, Bartolo Colon, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee, Daisuke Matsuzaka
Closer: Bobby Parnell
4. Philadelphia Phillies: I almost feel bad about what happened to the Phillies. This was one of the dominant teams with a dominant pitching staff just a couple years ago. But this year's edition has turned into one big afterthought. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are all still serviceable, but they left their primes long ago. The best player on this team now is Domonic Brown. And the pitching depth that the Phillies have always been able to bank on simply isn't there anymore. Cliff Lee is still Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels on a good day is probably the third-best lefty in the National League (1. Kershaw, 2. Bumgarner). But Roy Halladay will be tough to replace. That being said, I like the A.J. Burnett signing. He'll bring to the Phillies exactly what he brought across the state. He's a veteran guy who'll go out there and give you seven innings every fifth day. Whether Good A.J. or Bad A.J. will show up is a question that even he probably doesn't know the answer too, but Good A.J. is so good that it's worth the risk. Bullpen's got Jonathan Papelbon closing, but not much else. I have a feeling the Phillies are going to blow a lot of games during the middle innings this season. They aren't going to be contenders, but they might be respectable if Howard, Rollins and Utley can stay healthy and play like their old selves. Fun note about the Phillies: after playing the Royals in their home opener last season, they play the Rangers on Opening Day this year. Clearly they aren't the biggest fans of April interleague.
Projected Record: 73-89
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins-SS, Ben Revere-CF, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Marlon Byrd-RF, Domonic Brown-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C, Cody Asche-3B
Projected Rotation: Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, A.J. Burnett, Kyle Kendrick, Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona)
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
5. Miami Marlins: When the Marlins complained about the Red Sox not bringing their starters to a Spring Training game, Boston owner John Henry (who used to own the Marlins) told them that they should apologize to their fans for their regular starting lineup. It was a great line that perfectly sums up the state of the Marlins. Two years after that blockbuster trade that was supposed to make them "instant contenders" in their new ballpark, they're in year two of yet another rebuilding process. Things are a little better this year, and they're not in the rock bottom situation of some other teams (see: Astros, Houston and Twins, Minnesota). They've even brought in some actual Major Leaguers as free agents that will make their lineup actually consist of more than just Giancarlo Stanton and eight other guys. Jarrod Saltalamacchia won a ring with the Red Sox last season, and Rafael Furcal was injured, but on that Cardinals roster nonetheless (alas, Furcal is once again injured, however). Plus, I think Christian Yelich is going to be a stud. Rookie of the Year will be between him and Billy Hamilton. Speaking of Rookie of the Year, the Marlins always look like a Major League team on the nights Jose Fernandez is pitching. And Henderson Alvarez was standing in the on-deck circle when Miami finished his walk-off no-hitter against the Tigers in the season finale last year. They've got good, young starting pitching. They'll beat some teams other than just the Mets this season. Amazingly, all of this rebuilding crap the Marlins do every year might actually work this time. It just won't be this year.
Projected Record: 68-94
Projected Lineup: Marcell Ozuna-CF, Rafael Furcal-2B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Garrett Jones-1B, Casey McGehee-3B, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Adeniy Hechevarria-SS
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez, Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, Jacob Turner, Tom Koehler
Closer: Steve Cishek
As for who's going to win this division, I've gotta say it'll be a two-team race between Washington and Atlanta. But if the 2012 Nationals show up instead of the 2013 Nationals, that two-team race won't be much of a race. Talent-wise, Washington is far-and-away the best team in this division. That doesn't mean Atlanta can't make a return trip to the playoffs, though. In fact, I think the Braves will end up in the Wild Card Game.
The Mets will finish third, but the bottom of the division is harder to call. The Phillies all got old quickly. And all at once. So much so that Roy Halladay retired. But they're at least still trying, which is enough to make me think they'll finish ahead of the Marlins. Things are getting better in Miami, though. They won't be as painful to watch this season. They might even avoid 100 losses.
1. Washington Nationals: It's almost not fair how good the Nationals are. Washington is loaded at every position and, even though they didn't need him at all, they added Nate McLouth as a fourth outfielder. Nate McLouth, who could easily be a starter anywhere else in the Majors, is the fourth outfielder in Washington. Oh yeah, and the Nationals' starting outfield of Bryce Harper, Denard Span and Jayson Werth ain't too shabby either. They're pretty stacked in the infield, too. Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche have the corners locked down, while I love that trio of Ian Desmond, Anthony Rendon and Danny Espinosa. They can all play anywhere. The Nationals are going to do plenty of hitting, but they're not going to need it. Because they have an outstanding rotation. Gio Gonzalez would be a No. 1 starter anywhere else. But Washington has Stephen Strasburg. And did I mention they traded for Doug Fister...then promptly inserted him into the No. 4 spot in the rotation? Their rotation is so deep that Ross Detwiler is now in the bullpen, further bolstering an already solid unit. Detwiler, Craig Stammen, Jerry Blevins and Tyler Clippard, along with closer Rafael Soriano and closer-in-waiting Drew Storen. Like I said, I love this Washington team. The Nationals are very, very good and are going to win a lot of games this season. I'd even be willing to say that this might be the second-best team in the National League, and potentially the only one that can beat the Dodgers in October. The World Series hasn't been to the nation's capital since 1933, and the Expos/Nationals franchise is one of two to have never been there. That could change this season.
Projected Record: 83-69
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Ian Desmond-SS, Bryce Harper-LF, Ryan Zimmerman-3B, Adam LaRoche-1B, Jayson Werth-RF, Anthony Rendon-2B, Wilson Ramos-C
Projected Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Drew Storen, Tanner Roark
Closer: Rafael Soriano
2. Atlanta Braves: If the Nationals stumble, expect the Braves to be right there to pounce. Atlanta will certainly be hurt by the loss of Brian McCann, but they're also relying on a couple of bounce-back seasons from some of their returning veterans. Specifically, I'm talking about Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton. How bad was the B.J. Upton signing last season? Well, he had the lowest batting average of any qualifier in the NL, and he was benched in the playoffs for Evan Gattis. I thought one of the reasons the Braves let McCann walk was because they were trying to open up a position for Gattis, a catcher by trade. Which is why it's interesting that they added Ryan Doumit to do a bulk of the catching. That means they still need to find a place for Gattis, and with Freddie Freeman entrenched at first, that leaves the outfield as the only possibility (unless they want to try him at third). I'm really curious to see how Fredi Gonzalez will work this day in and day out. My biggest concern with the Braves, though is on the mound. Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy both had Tommy John surgery and Jonny Venters will be back from his after the All-Star break. It's crazy to think of the number of injuries they've had on that pitching staff. It's also crazy to think they only have four definite starters right now (because Mike Minor is also out). And that includes Aaron Harang, who was literally just released by Cleveland, but will probably start the season in Atlanta's rotation. The bullpen is still one of their great strengths, and Craig Kimbrel is one of the best closers in the game. They've also been smart about the way they've used their bullpen since its overuse cost them a playoff spot three years ago. This isn't the Braves' Glory Days anymore. But in the year Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Bobby Cox all go into the Hall of Fame, it would be fitting to see them start a new mini-dynasty and make a third straight playoff appearance.
Projected Record: 90-72 (Wild Card)
Projected Lineup: B.J. Upton-CF, Jason Heyward-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Justin Upton-LF, Evan Gattis-C, Dan Uggla-2B, Chris Johnson-3B, Andrelton Simmons-SS
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang, Alex Wood, David Hale
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
3. New York Mets: Sandy Alderson has said the Mets will win 90 games this year. They're only 76 away, so that's definitely doable. All kidding aside, though, the Mets should be a better team this year. They probably won't challenge for the NL East title, but they're not going to be anywhere near the bottom either. Third place and a record right around .500 (a few games over/under) seem about right. They're also primed to be very serious contenders in 2015. Especially if Matt Harvey is able to pitch at all this season. The Mets are pitching-rich, which is good when your home park is Citi Field. And I'd bet that Noah Syndergaard makes his debut either in late June or somewhere near the All-Star Break, getting him ready to be that valuable piece next season. I'm also including Jonathan Niese and Dillon Gee in that 2015 rotation. I love Jon Niese and think he's incredibly underrated. He also doesn't get enough credit as the only lefty in that rotation. Bartolo Colon is usually good in his first year with a team before sucking in his second. Since the Mets only need him for one year, that should work out nicely. But they also addressed their biggest problem and upgraded the lineup to finally put someone around David Wright. That power guy is Curtis Granderson, although we'll have to see if his power was merely the result of playing across town for four years. They also rescued Chris Young from Oakland. Hopefully neither one turns into Jason Bay. I love Lagares in center, and if Chris Young doesn't work out, they can simply swap Youngs and put Eric in there. The Mets are starting to have the nice problem of figuring out where to put guys. Especially now that they have Travis d'Arnaud locked in behind the plate. At first base, they've got the underachieving tag-team of Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. I might be the only one who sees it (mainly because he goes yard every time I go to a Mets game), but I still think Ike Davis can be a very productive Major League player. He's the Mets' Mark Sanchez. But if he struggles again and the Mets finally get tired of him, look out. Because I can see Ike Davis becoming a star if he ever gets out of New York.
Projected Record: 76-86
Projected Lineup: Juan Lagares-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, David Wright-3B, Curtis Granderson-LF, Ike Davis-1B, Chris Young-RF, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Ruben Tejada-SS
Projected Rotation: Jonathan Niese, Bartolo Colon, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee, Daisuke Matsuzaka
Closer: Bobby Parnell
4. Philadelphia Phillies: I almost feel bad about what happened to the Phillies. This was one of the dominant teams with a dominant pitching staff just a couple years ago. But this year's edition has turned into one big afterthought. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are all still serviceable, but they left their primes long ago. The best player on this team now is Domonic Brown. And the pitching depth that the Phillies have always been able to bank on simply isn't there anymore. Cliff Lee is still Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels on a good day is probably the third-best lefty in the National League (1. Kershaw, 2. Bumgarner). But Roy Halladay will be tough to replace. That being said, I like the A.J. Burnett signing. He'll bring to the Phillies exactly what he brought across the state. He's a veteran guy who'll go out there and give you seven innings every fifth day. Whether Good A.J. or Bad A.J. will show up is a question that even he probably doesn't know the answer too, but Good A.J. is so good that it's worth the risk. Bullpen's got Jonathan Papelbon closing, but not much else. I have a feeling the Phillies are going to blow a lot of games during the middle innings this season. They aren't going to be contenders, but they might be respectable if Howard, Rollins and Utley can stay healthy and play like their old selves. Fun note about the Phillies: after playing the Royals in their home opener last season, they play the Rangers on Opening Day this year. Clearly they aren't the biggest fans of April interleague.
Projected Record: 73-89
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins-SS, Ben Revere-CF, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Marlon Byrd-RF, Domonic Brown-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C, Cody Asche-3B
Projected Rotation: Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, A.J. Burnett, Kyle Kendrick, Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona)
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
5. Miami Marlins: When the Marlins complained about the Red Sox not bringing their starters to a Spring Training game, Boston owner John Henry (who used to own the Marlins) told them that they should apologize to their fans for their regular starting lineup. It was a great line that perfectly sums up the state of the Marlins. Two years after that blockbuster trade that was supposed to make them "instant contenders" in their new ballpark, they're in year two of yet another rebuilding process. Things are a little better this year, and they're not in the rock bottom situation of some other teams (see: Astros, Houston and Twins, Minnesota). They've even brought in some actual Major Leaguers as free agents that will make their lineup actually consist of more than just Giancarlo Stanton and eight other guys. Jarrod Saltalamacchia won a ring with the Red Sox last season, and Rafael Furcal was injured, but on that Cardinals roster nonetheless (alas, Furcal is once again injured, however). Plus, I think Christian Yelich is going to be a stud. Rookie of the Year will be between him and Billy Hamilton. Speaking of Rookie of the Year, the Marlins always look like a Major League team on the nights Jose Fernandez is pitching. And Henderson Alvarez was standing in the on-deck circle when Miami finished his walk-off no-hitter against the Tigers in the season finale last year. They've got good, young starting pitching. They'll beat some teams other than just the Mets this season. Amazingly, all of this rebuilding crap the Marlins do every year might actually work this time. It just won't be this year.
Projected Record: 68-94
Projected Lineup: Marcell Ozuna-CF, Rafael Furcal-2B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Garrett Jones-1B, Casey McGehee-3B, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Adeniy Hechevarria-SS
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez, Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, Jacob Turner, Tom Koehler
Closer: Steve Cishek
Monday, March 24, 2014
Rapid-Fire Baseball Preview (NL Central)
The NL Central is one of the most interesting divisions in baseball. On one hand you've got the Cardinals, who, no matter what, always seem to be in the hunt at the end. Take last year for example. Did anyone really think St. Louis was going to win the division, let alone the pennant, on Opening Day? Yet the Cardinals did their usual thing. Winning with a bunch of guys you've never heard of. That's one of the best organizations in all of baseball, and I don't see things changing anytime soon.
Especially since the rest of the NL Central is awful. The Cubs and Brewers might be two of the worst teams in the game. They'll be in a fight for last place, and the worst overall record is definitely a possibility for both (although the Marlins, Astros and Twins might also have something to say about that).
As for the Pirates and Reds, they played each other in the Wild Card Game last year. Except Cincinnati's not as good as they've been for the past couple years and Pittsburgh, the story of the year in 2013, is hopefully more than just a one-year wonder. I'd like to believe last year was the start of something in Pittsburgh, but I only will if the Pirates are in the race again this season. I think they'll be in a dogfight with the Reds, just like the Brewers and Cubs will be in a dogfight for last.
1. St. Louis Cardinals: Remember when they lost Albert Pujols and we all thought it would be the end of the Cardinals being good year after year? Well, it turns out we were all wrong about that, weren't we? This team's coming off its second pennant in three years and might've actually found a way to get better. Allen Craig was hurt in the playoffs, paving the way for Matt Adams to take over at first base. Carlos Beltran left as a free agent, so Craig moves to right and Adams is inserted as the everyday first baseman. And they traded David Freese, who never really quite became the Face of the Franchise after the 2011 World Series, so that they could move Matt Carpenter, who's probably a better overall player, to third. This is a guy who led the National League in hits last season while playing second base, a position he learned to play while in the Majors! He's reunited with Albert in Anaheim and St. Louis got Peter Bourjos for him. I might be the one who's missing something, but I don't see what the Angels and Cardinals see in Bourjos. The guy isn't that good (but at least the Angels figured out that they shouldn't be moving Mike Trout away from his best position). Moving Carpenter to third also freed up second base for Kolten Wong, who they hope will be the next big thing. And they added Jhonny Peralta as a free agent to replace Rafael Furcal at short. Then there's the pitching staff, which is the prime example of the depth of the Cardinals' farm system. Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller all started games in the World Series last year, and Miller's not even projected to be in the rotation once Jaime Garcia's healthy. Then, of course, there's staff ace Adam Wainwright and a bullpen anchored by Trevor Rosenthal and Jason Motte. The Cardinals will be fine without the retired Chris Carpenter. This is a lesson to everyone. Having a good farm system and keeping those prospects will help you stay competitive at the Major League level year-in and year-out. The result this year for St. Louis will likely be another playoff appearance.
Projected Record: 94-68
Projected Lineup: Matt Carpenter-3B, Jon Jay-CF, Matt Holliday-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Jhonny Peralta-SS, Allen Craig-RF, Matt Adams-1B, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller
Closer: Trevor Rosenthal
2. Cincinnati Reds: It really feels like the Reds missed their window. They've been so good for so long, yet don't have a playoff series win to show for it. And it really is a shame that this is all happening during Joey Votto's prime. But, alas, the door isn't completely closed on Cincinnati. They lost leadoff man and center fielder Shin-Soo Choo to Texas, but that's not a problem at all. Because they needed to free up center for Billy Hamilton, who I project to be the National League Rookie of the Year. And since the Yankees vetoed the Brandon Phillips-for-Brett Gardner trade, they still have Phillips to create a dynamic 1-2-3 punch with Votto and Jay Bruce. Throw in Ryan Ludwick and Todd Frazier, who finally becomes the everyday third baseman this season, and you've still got a team that can tear the cover off the ball. They're going to need some pitching to back up that offense, though, and their pitching staff seems to be all injured right now. That's where letting Bronson Arroyo walk as a free agent could end up hurting them. There's also no way to figure out when Aroldis Chapman is going to return from that gruesome eye injury he suffered on that comebacker last week against Kansas City. I'm not sure who the temporary closer is going to be, but Jonathan Broxton used to be a closer, so I'd imagine he's the prime candidate. They fired Dusty Baker because he didn't win in the playoffs. That means the pressure's on new manager Bryan Price. The Reds are ready to win now, and they want to desperately. If they don't this year, they're in danger of doing the same thing the Phillies did. Going from contenders to irrelevant in very short order.
Projected Record: 87-75
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Ryan Ludwick-LF, Todd Frazier-3B, Zack Cozart-SS, Brayan Pena-C
Projected Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Tony Cingriani
Closer: Jonathan Broxton
3. Pittsburgh Pirates: Heading into last season, they were just trying to snap that streak of 19 consecutive losing seasons. Little did anyone know they'd not just win 82 games, they'd win 90, host the Wild Card Game, and take the Cardinals all the way to the wire in a five-game Division Series. Now the challenge is to do it again. The Pirates aren't going to sneak up on anybody this year. And we all know that they have more than just reigning NL MVP Andrew McCutchen. I love this team. But they need to show that they're going to do it again. That they're going to become the National League's version of the Tampa Bay Rays. And a return to the playoffs isn't completely out of the question. The lineup should be fine, and the back end of the bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Jason Grilli is one of the top closers out there. But that bullpen will only be as effective as the rotation lets it be. As weird as this is going to sound, A.J. Burnett is a big loss. He was the veteran innings-eater that those young starters needed. Fortunately, they've still got Francisco Liriano. And Gerritt Cole is the real deal. Until they prove otherwise, I'm going to believe last year was the start of another streak. Finishing above .500 is going to become the norm in the Steel City.
Projected Record: 84-78
Projected Lineup: Starling Marte-LF, Neil Walker-2B, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Pedro Alvarez-3B, Russell Martin-C, Jose Tabata-RF, Gaby Sanchez-1B, Jordy Mercer-SS
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Gerritt Cole, Jeff Locke, Wandy Rodriguez, Edinson Volquez
Closer: Jason Grilli
4. Chicago Cubs: It was tough to choose between the Cubs and Brewers for fourth place. They're both pretty bad. But this is Wrigley's 100th Anniversary season, so I'm going to give the Cubbies the nod. Plus, I really like Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro, and I'm very excited to see The Cubs at the Stadium in a couple weeks. But even still, I think the Cubs are a better team than Milwaukee. They've got the pieces in place to start being competitive again in a year or two. Theo Epstein knows how to build a baseball team. He did end the Curse in Boston, after all. But after another year or two of rebuilding, Cubs fans will see the dividends. They need Jeff Samardzija to pitch like an ace and the rest of the rotation to give them a chance to win games. The real interesting battle for this team, though, could be for Chicago supremacy. The White Sox aren't that good, either. I don't know why, but I don't think the Cubs will be that bad. They won't be good, but avoiding 90 losses is definitely doable.
Projected Record: 71-91
Projected Lineup: Junior Lake-LF, Darwin Barney-2B, Starlin Castro-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Nate Schierholtz-RF, Justin Ruggiano-CF, Luis Valbuena-3B, Wellington Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, Jake Arrieta
Closer: Jose Veras
5. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers sure turned from contender to joke pretty quickly, didn't they? Of course, rock bottom was last season, when Golden Boy Ryan Braun was exposed as a liar and a fraud. I bet they're regretting making him the Face of the Franchise now. Because they'd probably like to distance themselves from Braun as much as possible now. But they're stuck with him, and moving him to right field this season. And perhaps the only good thing about losing Braun for the last 65 games last season was that they were able to groom his replacement, Khris Davis, with nothing to lose. The Brewers also made some interesting off-season moves, including bringing in two of the many veterans that played with the Yankees last season--Lyle Overbay and Mark Reynolds--to tag-team first base. They've still got Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura and Aramis Ramirez, too, so the lineup shouldn't be the problem. But I'm worried about the pitching staff. Behind Yovani Gallardo, they don't really have that deep of a rotation. Matt Garza's currently penciled into the three-spot, and, frankly, I'm surprised he chose Milwaukee. I'd be even more surprised if he ends the season with the Brewers. I have no idea who this Jim Henderson guy that's supposed to be the closer is. Fortunately, it doesn't really matter. The Brewers probably aren't going to have that many save situations.
Projected Record: 64-98
Projected Lineup: Carlos Gomez-CF, Rickie Weeks-2B, Ryan Braun-RF, Aramis Ramirez-3B, Jean Segura-SS, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Mark Reynolds-1B, Khris Davis-LF
Projected Rotation: Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta
Closer: Jim Henderson
Especially since the rest of the NL Central is awful. The Cubs and Brewers might be two of the worst teams in the game. They'll be in a fight for last place, and the worst overall record is definitely a possibility for both (although the Marlins, Astros and Twins might also have something to say about that).
As for the Pirates and Reds, they played each other in the Wild Card Game last year. Except Cincinnati's not as good as they've been for the past couple years and Pittsburgh, the story of the year in 2013, is hopefully more than just a one-year wonder. I'd like to believe last year was the start of something in Pittsburgh, but I only will if the Pirates are in the race again this season. I think they'll be in a dogfight with the Reds, just like the Brewers and Cubs will be in a dogfight for last.
1. St. Louis Cardinals: Remember when they lost Albert Pujols and we all thought it would be the end of the Cardinals being good year after year? Well, it turns out we were all wrong about that, weren't we? This team's coming off its second pennant in three years and might've actually found a way to get better. Allen Craig was hurt in the playoffs, paving the way for Matt Adams to take over at first base. Carlos Beltran left as a free agent, so Craig moves to right and Adams is inserted as the everyday first baseman. And they traded David Freese, who never really quite became the Face of the Franchise after the 2011 World Series, so that they could move Matt Carpenter, who's probably a better overall player, to third. This is a guy who led the National League in hits last season while playing second base, a position he learned to play while in the Majors! He's reunited with Albert in Anaheim and St. Louis got Peter Bourjos for him. I might be the one who's missing something, but I don't see what the Angels and Cardinals see in Bourjos. The guy isn't that good (but at least the Angels figured out that they shouldn't be moving Mike Trout away from his best position). Moving Carpenter to third also freed up second base for Kolten Wong, who they hope will be the next big thing. And they added Jhonny Peralta as a free agent to replace Rafael Furcal at short. Then there's the pitching staff, which is the prime example of the depth of the Cardinals' farm system. Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller all started games in the World Series last year, and Miller's not even projected to be in the rotation once Jaime Garcia's healthy. Then, of course, there's staff ace Adam Wainwright and a bullpen anchored by Trevor Rosenthal and Jason Motte. The Cardinals will be fine without the retired Chris Carpenter. This is a lesson to everyone. Having a good farm system and keeping those prospects will help you stay competitive at the Major League level year-in and year-out. The result this year for St. Louis will likely be another playoff appearance.
Projected Record: 94-68
Projected Lineup: Matt Carpenter-3B, Jon Jay-CF, Matt Holliday-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Jhonny Peralta-SS, Allen Craig-RF, Matt Adams-1B, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller
Closer: Trevor Rosenthal
2. Cincinnati Reds: It really feels like the Reds missed their window. They've been so good for so long, yet don't have a playoff series win to show for it. And it really is a shame that this is all happening during Joey Votto's prime. But, alas, the door isn't completely closed on Cincinnati. They lost leadoff man and center fielder Shin-Soo Choo to Texas, but that's not a problem at all. Because they needed to free up center for Billy Hamilton, who I project to be the National League Rookie of the Year. And since the Yankees vetoed the Brandon Phillips-for-Brett Gardner trade, they still have Phillips to create a dynamic 1-2-3 punch with Votto and Jay Bruce. Throw in Ryan Ludwick and Todd Frazier, who finally becomes the everyday third baseman this season, and you've still got a team that can tear the cover off the ball. They're going to need some pitching to back up that offense, though, and their pitching staff seems to be all injured right now. That's where letting Bronson Arroyo walk as a free agent could end up hurting them. There's also no way to figure out when Aroldis Chapman is going to return from that gruesome eye injury he suffered on that comebacker last week against Kansas City. I'm not sure who the temporary closer is going to be, but Jonathan Broxton used to be a closer, so I'd imagine he's the prime candidate. They fired Dusty Baker because he didn't win in the playoffs. That means the pressure's on new manager Bryan Price. The Reds are ready to win now, and they want to desperately. If they don't this year, they're in danger of doing the same thing the Phillies did. Going from contenders to irrelevant in very short order.
Projected Record: 87-75
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Ryan Ludwick-LF, Todd Frazier-3B, Zack Cozart-SS, Brayan Pena-C
Projected Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Tony Cingriani
Closer: Jonathan Broxton
3. Pittsburgh Pirates: Heading into last season, they were just trying to snap that streak of 19 consecutive losing seasons. Little did anyone know they'd not just win 82 games, they'd win 90, host the Wild Card Game, and take the Cardinals all the way to the wire in a five-game Division Series. Now the challenge is to do it again. The Pirates aren't going to sneak up on anybody this year. And we all know that they have more than just reigning NL MVP Andrew McCutchen. I love this team. But they need to show that they're going to do it again. That they're going to become the National League's version of the Tampa Bay Rays. And a return to the playoffs isn't completely out of the question. The lineup should be fine, and the back end of the bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Jason Grilli is one of the top closers out there. But that bullpen will only be as effective as the rotation lets it be. As weird as this is going to sound, A.J. Burnett is a big loss. He was the veteran innings-eater that those young starters needed. Fortunately, they've still got Francisco Liriano. And Gerritt Cole is the real deal. Until they prove otherwise, I'm going to believe last year was the start of another streak. Finishing above .500 is going to become the norm in the Steel City.
Projected Record: 84-78
Projected Lineup: Starling Marte-LF, Neil Walker-2B, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Pedro Alvarez-3B, Russell Martin-C, Jose Tabata-RF, Gaby Sanchez-1B, Jordy Mercer-SS
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Gerritt Cole, Jeff Locke, Wandy Rodriguez, Edinson Volquez
Closer: Jason Grilli
4. Chicago Cubs: It was tough to choose between the Cubs and Brewers for fourth place. They're both pretty bad. But this is Wrigley's 100th Anniversary season, so I'm going to give the Cubbies the nod. Plus, I really like Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro, and I'm very excited to see The Cubs at the Stadium in a couple weeks. But even still, I think the Cubs are a better team than Milwaukee. They've got the pieces in place to start being competitive again in a year or two. Theo Epstein knows how to build a baseball team. He did end the Curse in Boston, after all. But after another year or two of rebuilding, Cubs fans will see the dividends. They need Jeff Samardzija to pitch like an ace and the rest of the rotation to give them a chance to win games. The real interesting battle for this team, though, could be for Chicago supremacy. The White Sox aren't that good, either. I don't know why, but I don't think the Cubs will be that bad. They won't be good, but avoiding 90 losses is definitely doable.
Projected Record: 71-91
Projected Lineup: Junior Lake-LF, Darwin Barney-2B, Starlin Castro-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Nate Schierholtz-RF, Justin Ruggiano-CF, Luis Valbuena-3B, Wellington Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, Jake Arrieta
Closer: Jose Veras
5. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers sure turned from contender to joke pretty quickly, didn't they? Of course, rock bottom was last season, when Golden Boy Ryan Braun was exposed as a liar and a fraud. I bet they're regretting making him the Face of the Franchise now. Because they'd probably like to distance themselves from Braun as much as possible now. But they're stuck with him, and moving him to right field this season. And perhaps the only good thing about losing Braun for the last 65 games last season was that they were able to groom his replacement, Khris Davis, with nothing to lose. The Brewers also made some interesting off-season moves, including bringing in two of the many veterans that played with the Yankees last season--Lyle Overbay and Mark Reynolds--to tag-team first base. They've still got Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura and Aramis Ramirez, too, so the lineup shouldn't be the problem. But I'm worried about the pitching staff. Behind Yovani Gallardo, they don't really have that deep of a rotation. Matt Garza's currently penciled into the three-spot, and, frankly, I'm surprised he chose Milwaukee. I'd be even more surprised if he ends the season with the Brewers. I have no idea who this Jim Henderson guy that's supposed to be the closer is. Fortunately, it doesn't really matter. The Brewers probably aren't going to have that many save situations.
Projected Record: 64-98
Projected Lineup: Carlos Gomez-CF, Rickie Weeks-2B, Ryan Braun-RF, Aramis Ramirez-3B, Jean Segura-SS, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Mark Reynolds-1B, Khris Davis-LF
Projected Rotation: Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta
Closer: Jim Henderson
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Rapid-Fire Baseball Preview (NL West)
The NCAA Tournament put me a little behind on my blogging. I originally wanted to begin the annual six-part baseball preview before the Dodgers-Diamondbacks games in Australia. But I also figured you'd like to see some photos from Orlando, which is why I did that first and saved Part I of the baseball preview for today.
I usually start with the AL East and work my way west, then switch leagues. But I'm reversing that this season. We've already started the season, and it was a pair of NL West teams that got the honor. As a result, it probably makes more sense to start the previewing with the NL West.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers aren't just the best team in the NL West. They're the best team in the National League, and maybe all of Baseball. Once they figured everything out and got their stuff together last year, they were virtually unbeatable, and if Clayton Kershaw is Clayton Kershaw in the playoffs, they probably beat the Cardinals. There's an abundance of riches in LA, starting with the best outfield in the game. When they're all healthy, the Dodgers have a nice problem...trying to figure out how to work four guys into three positions. Unfortunately, all four of them being healthy hasn't really happened since Puig's emergence (in fact, he was only called up last season because Ethier was on the DL), and they had Scott Van Slyke start in Australia because both Kemp and Crawford are out (although Crawford's on paternity leave, so I guess he gets a pass there). But it's still a nice problem to have. And they don't even need to think about flipping one for a pitcher. Because they've got one of the deepest, most talented rotations out there. There's obviously Kershaw, who's worth every penny of that record contract he signed during the offseason, but let's not forget about Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Or Josh Beckett. Or Dan Haren. Or Paul Maholm. One of those three won't even be in the rotation. Once they settled on Kenley Janssen as the closer, that really settled the bullpen, too. The only glaring weakness I can see with this Dodgers team is second base. It looks like they're going to move Dee Gordon over there, but they have plenty of options (Justin Turner, Chone Figgins). Whoever they put in there can hit seventh or eight and do a plenty serviceable job. Especially after coming so close last season, the Dodgers are on a mission. This is going to be a tough team to beat. Injuries are the only thing I can see slowing them down. But they've got enough depth at key positions that even losing one of the big guys (as long as it's not Kershaw or Hanley) might not be overly devastating.
Projected Record: 99-63
Projected Lineup: Carl Crawford-LF, Yasiel Puig-RF, Hanley Ramirez-SS, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Andre Ethier-CF, Juan Uribe-3B, A.J. Ellis-C, Dee Gordon-2B
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Haren, Paul Maholm
Closer: Kenley Janssen
2. San Francisco Giants: If the cycle holds, it's the Giants' year to win the World Series (or, at the very least, the National League pennant). Once again, it's all about pitching by the Bay. Tim Lincecum was a free agent, but they made it a point to make sure they re-signed him. They were finally able to get themselves out from under that ridiculous Barry Zito contract, and they replaced him with Tim Hudson, which is probably an upgrade, especially since we're talking about the No. 3 and 4 starters behind Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain. That's the thing I love about this Giants pitching rotation. All of these guys are pretty much interchangeable. And we know about the Giants bullpen. All of the usual suspects are still there, from Santiago Casilla to Javier Lopez to Jeremy Affeldt to closer Sergio Romo. I'm not sure if I consider the addition of Michael Morse an upgrade. They certainly needed to add some more power to the lineup, but Morse is nowhere near the defender Gregor Blanco is. But they've also had Barry Bonds and Pat Burrell play left field in that stadium, so the Giants obviously aren't particularly concerned about their defense at that position. San Francisco stacks up very well against its rivals except for one key area. The Dodgers have more depth, and it's better depth. It would be much harder for the Giants to overcome a significant injury than it would be for the Dodgers. That's why I think the Dodgers have the upper-hand in the division. However, with that being said, the Giants will be in the thick of the wild card race right up until the end.
Projected Record: 89-73 (Wild Card)
Projected Lineup: Angel Pagan-CF, Marco Scutaro-2B, Buster Posey-C, Hunter Pence-RF, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Michael Morse-LF, Brandon Belt-1B, Brandon Crawford-SS
Projected Rotation: Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong
Closer: Sergio Romo
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: After the top two, handicapping the National League West becomes difficult. But of the remaining three, the one I think most capable of making noise is Arizona. Paul Goldschmidt had his breakout season in 2013. He's a legitimate, in-his-prime star. And even though I don't think it made much sense for the Angels, the Mark Trumbo trade was great for Arizona. Now they've got a legitimate 3-4 tandem. Unfortunately, the lineup doesn't get much deeper than that. Mainly, though, I like the Diamondbacks' pitching better than Colorado's and San Diego's. Losing Patrick Corbin for the season will certainly hurt, but that rotation is solid, and I love the addition of Bronson Arroyo to it. He doesn't get a lot of credit, but Arroyo's going to go out there, take the ball every fifth day and give you seven innings. He's a quality professional starter, yet nobody wanted him. I'm glad he's found a home in Arizona. The Diamondbacks won't regret singing him and plugging him into the No. 3 spot in the rotation. Arizona's bullpen is also not that bad. They're not going to win the division, and they're probably not going to be in contention for a wild card, either. But the Diamondbacks are far from the worst team, either. I'll bet they probably finish right around .500.
Projected Record: 81-81
Projected Lineup: A.J. Pollock-CF, Gerardo Parra-RF, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Mark Trumbo-LF, Miguel Montero-C, Martin Prado-3B, Aaron Hill-2B, Didi Gregorius-SS
Projected Rotation: Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Bronson Arroyo, Brandon McCarthy, Randall Delgado
Closer: Addison Reed
4. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies without Todd Helton. It's weird thing to think about. But their franchise player has retired and is set to join Mariano Rivera in the Cooperstown Class of 2019. They set about replacing him with Justin Morneau, who was shipped off to the Pirates last season as the Twins finally committed to their rebuilding effort. Hopefully he can resurrect his career in the Mile High air of Denver and continue the legacy set forward by Helton. The addition of Morneau bolsters the Rockies lineup considerably, and gives Colorado a relatively formidable middle of the order. Problem is the rest of the order ain't gonna scare anybody and, in what's a common theme of this franchise's entire existence, the pitching depth is about as thin as the air. When your "ace" is Jorge de la Rosa, and that "ace" might miss the first month of the season, that's not a good thing. It's also not a good thing when your closer is LaTroy Hawkins. Pitching's always a concern in Colorado. Especially when the two best teams in this division have pitching in abundance. Until they can close or narrow that gap, the Rockies aren't going to contend in the NL West, which is really a shame. Because Tulo and CarGo are very much worth watching.
Projected Record: 74-88
Projected Lineup: Drew Stubbs-LF, D.J. LeMathieu-2B, Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Carlos Gonzalez-CF, Michael Cuddyer-RF, Justin Morneau-1B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Wilin Rosario-C
Projected Rotation: Jorge de la Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin, Brett Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, Juan Nicasio
Closer: LaTroy Hawkins
5. San Diego Padres: It's possible that the Padres might finish fourth, or even third, this season. San Diego's getting there, and I don't think the gap between them, the Diamondbacks and Rockies isn't that great. The Padres' rotation is pretty solid, and they've got a first-rate closer in Huston Street. In fact, I'd be surprised if Street is still a Padre at the end of the season. The lineup has also seen some significant upgrades over the past few seasons. Chase Headley was already a star, and second baseman Jedd Gyorko soon may be. One of the best things about a team like the Padres is that young players get a chance to play everyday and develop at the Major League level. Much like Headley, Gyorko's worth watching. And since the Headley-to-the-Yankees thing never really gained much traction, those two will remain together to at least start this season. Then there's Everth Cabrera. He was in the midst of a career year when he was one of the guys nailed in the Biogenesis scandal and was suspended in August for the rest of the 2013 season. How he bounces back, and whether or not he was indeed "enhanced," could be key to the Padres' success this season. How long Cameron Maybin is out could also have a major impact. If all goes well for San Diego this season, third place isn't out of the question. However, I think it's more realistic to think the Padres are looking at another year towards the bottom. Better days are coming, though. Probably soon.
Projected Record: 71-91
Projected Lineup: Everth Cabrera-SS, Will Venable-CF, Chase Headley-3B, Carlos Quentin-LF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Jedd Gyorko-2B, Chris Denorfia-RF, Nick Hundley-C
Projected Rotation: Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, Eric Stults, Josh Johnson
Closer: Huston Street
I usually start with the AL East and work my way west, then switch leagues. But I'm reversing that this season. We've already started the season, and it was a pair of NL West teams that got the honor. As a result, it probably makes more sense to start the previewing with the NL West.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers aren't just the best team in the NL West. They're the best team in the National League, and maybe all of Baseball. Once they figured everything out and got their stuff together last year, they were virtually unbeatable, and if Clayton Kershaw is Clayton Kershaw in the playoffs, they probably beat the Cardinals. There's an abundance of riches in LA, starting with the best outfield in the game. When they're all healthy, the Dodgers have a nice problem...trying to figure out how to work four guys into three positions. Unfortunately, all four of them being healthy hasn't really happened since Puig's emergence (in fact, he was only called up last season because Ethier was on the DL), and they had Scott Van Slyke start in Australia because both Kemp and Crawford are out (although Crawford's on paternity leave, so I guess he gets a pass there). But it's still a nice problem to have. And they don't even need to think about flipping one for a pitcher. Because they've got one of the deepest, most talented rotations out there. There's obviously Kershaw, who's worth every penny of that record contract he signed during the offseason, but let's not forget about Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Or Josh Beckett. Or Dan Haren. Or Paul Maholm. One of those three won't even be in the rotation. Once they settled on Kenley Janssen as the closer, that really settled the bullpen, too. The only glaring weakness I can see with this Dodgers team is second base. It looks like they're going to move Dee Gordon over there, but they have plenty of options (Justin Turner, Chone Figgins). Whoever they put in there can hit seventh or eight and do a plenty serviceable job. Especially after coming so close last season, the Dodgers are on a mission. This is going to be a tough team to beat. Injuries are the only thing I can see slowing them down. But they've got enough depth at key positions that even losing one of the big guys (as long as it's not Kershaw or Hanley) might not be overly devastating.
Projected Record: 99-63
Projected Lineup: Carl Crawford-LF, Yasiel Puig-RF, Hanley Ramirez-SS, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Andre Ethier-CF, Juan Uribe-3B, A.J. Ellis-C, Dee Gordon-2B
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Haren, Paul Maholm
Closer: Kenley Janssen
2. San Francisco Giants: If the cycle holds, it's the Giants' year to win the World Series (or, at the very least, the National League pennant). Once again, it's all about pitching by the Bay. Tim Lincecum was a free agent, but they made it a point to make sure they re-signed him. They were finally able to get themselves out from under that ridiculous Barry Zito contract, and they replaced him with Tim Hudson, which is probably an upgrade, especially since we're talking about the No. 3 and 4 starters behind Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain. That's the thing I love about this Giants pitching rotation. All of these guys are pretty much interchangeable. And we know about the Giants bullpen. All of the usual suspects are still there, from Santiago Casilla to Javier Lopez to Jeremy Affeldt to closer Sergio Romo. I'm not sure if I consider the addition of Michael Morse an upgrade. They certainly needed to add some more power to the lineup, but Morse is nowhere near the defender Gregor Blanco is. But they've also had Barry Bonds and Pat Burrell play left field in that stadium, so the Giants obviously aren't particularly concerned about their defense at that position. San Francisco stacks up very well against its rivals except for one key area. The Dodgers have more depth, and it's better depth. It would be much harder for the Giants to overcome a significant injury than it would be for the Dodgers. That's why I think the Dodgers have the upper-hand in the division. However, with that being said, the Giants will be in the thick of the wild card race right up until the end.
Projected Record: 89-73 (Wild Card)
Projected Lineup: Angel Pagan-CF, Marco Scutaro-2B, Buster Posey-C, Hunter Pence-RF, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Michael Morse-LF, Brandon Belt-1B, Brandon Crawford-SS
Projected Rotation: Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong
Closer: Sergio Romo
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: After the top two, handicapping the National League West becomes difficult. But of the remaining three, the one I think most capable of making noise is Arizona. Paul Goldschmidt had his breakout season in 2013. He's a legitimate, in-his-prime star. And even though I don't think it made much sense for the Angels, the Mark Trumbo trade was great for Arizona. Now they've got a legitimate 3-4 tandem. Unfortunately, the lineup doesn't get much deeper than that. Mainly, though, I like the Diamondbacks' pitching better than Colorado's and San Diego's. Losing Patrick Corbin for the season will certainly hurt, but that rotation is solid, and I love the addition of Bronson Arroyo to it. He doesn't get a lot of credit, but Arroyo's going to go out there, take the ball every fifth day and give you seven innings. He's a quality professional starter, yet nobody wanted him. I'm glad he's found a home in Arizona. The Diamondbacks won't regret singing him and plugging him into the No. 3 spot in the rotation. Arizona's bullpen is also not that bad. They're not going to win the division, and they're probably not going to be in contention for a wild card, either. But the Diamondbacks are far from the worst team, either. I'll bet they probably finish right around .500.
Projected Record: 81-81
Projected Lineup: A.J. Pollock-CF, Gerardo Parra-RF, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Mark Trumbo-LF, Miguel Montero-C, Martin Prado-3B, Aaron Hill-2B, Didi Gregorius-SS
Projected Rotation: Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Bronson Arroyo, Brandon McCarthy, Randall Delgado
Closer: Addison Reed
4. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies without Todd Helton. It's weird thing to think about. But their franchise player has retired and is set to join Mariano Rivera in the Cooperstown Class of 2019. They set about replacing him with Justin Morneau, who was shipped off to the Pirates last season as the Twins finally committed to their rebuilding effort. Hopefully he can resurrect his career in the Mile High air of Denver and continue the legacy set forward by Helton. The addition of Morneau bolsters the Rockies lineup considerably, and gives Colorado a relatively formidable middle of the order. Problem is the rest of the order ain't gonna scare anybody and, in what's a common theme of this franchise's entire existence, the pitching depth is about as thin as the air. When your "ace" is Jorge de la Rosa, and that "ace" might miss the first month of the season, that's not a good thing. It's also not a good thing when your closer is LaTroy Hawkins. Pitching's always a concern in Colorado. Especially when the two best teams in this division have pitching in abundance. Until they can close or narrow that gap, the Rockies aren't going to contend in the NL West, which is really a shame. Because Tulo and CarGo are very much worth watching.
Projected Record: 74-88
Projected Lineup: Drew Stubbs-LF, D.J. LeMathieu-2B, Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Carlos Gonzalez-CF, Michael Cuddyer-RF, Justin Morneau-1B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Wilin Rosario-C
Projected Rotation: Jorge de la Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin, Brett Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, Juan Nicasio
Closer: LaTroy Hawkins
5. San Diego Padres: It's possible that the Padres might finish fourth, or even third, this season. San Diego's getting there, and I don't think the gap between them, the Diamondbacks and Rockies isn't that great. The Padres' rotation is pretty solid, and they've got a first-rate closer in Huston Street. In fact, I'd be surprised if Street is still a Padre at the end of the season. The lineup has also seen some significant upgrades over the past few seasons. Chase Headley was already a star, and second baseman Jedd Gyorko soon may be. One of the best things about a team like the Padres is that young players get a chance to play everyday and develop at the Major League level. Much like Headley, Gyorko's worth watching. And since the Headley-to-the-Yankees thing never really gained much traction, those two will remain together to at least start this season. Then there's Everth Cabrera. He was in the midst of a career year when he was one of the guys nailed in the Biogenesis scandal and was suspended in August for the rest of the 2013 season. How he bounces back, and whether or not he was indeed "enhanced," could be key to the Padres' success this season. How long Cameron Maybin is out could also have a major impact. If all goes well for San Diego this season, third place isn't out of the question. However, I think it's more realistic to think the Padres are looking at another year towards the bottom. Better days are coming, though. Probably soon.
Projected Record: 71-91
Projected Lineup: Everth Cabrera-SS, Will Venable-CF, Chase Headley-3B, Carlos Quentin-LF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Jedd Gyorko-2B, Chris Denorfia-RF, Nick Hundley-C
Projected Rotation: Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, Eric Stults, Josh Johnson
Closer: Huston Street
Friday, March 21, 2014
Some Shots From the Tournament
I just got back from the NCAA Tournament in Orlando. The Jaspers almost pulled the upset, but there's a reason why Louisville is the defending champs. I would've liked a win, obviously, but I can't be disappointed. It was an incredible game (and so was the Saint Louis-NC State game for that matter), and there's a great amount of pride in not just making it to the Tournament, but in giving the defending champions all they could handle and then some. Manhattan didn't lose. Louisville won.
Anyway, it was a working trip, but I also made sure I enjoyed it. After all, I was in Florida in March. I took full advantage of the outdoor pool and the knowledge that I wasn't in New York with its never-ending winter for a couple of days. Also know that we rode in style. A charter flight both ways and a police escort to the arena, which proved to be incredibly necessary. As for the hotel, it was on the Disney campus, literally across the street from Downtown Disney. There might be some Disney-themed presents coming the way of the little people in my life.
But we were down there for the basketball, and I made sure to document the trip for you, my loyal blog-reading friends. This is just a selection of my pictures from the week, mainly from the open practice day on Wednesday. I also omitted some shots that I would've wanted because they were either too blurry or I couldn't get them from the bus. There is also a very limited number from game day itself. Professional obligations kind of got in the way. (Don't worry, I did manage to take some.)
Anyway, it was a working trip, but I also made sure I enjoyed it. After all, I was in Florida in March. I took full advantage of the outdoor pool and the knowledge that I wasn't in New York with its never-ending winter for a couple of days. Also know that we rode in style. A charter flight both ways and a police escort to the arena, which proved to be incredibly necessary. As for the hotel, it was on the Disney campus, literally across the street from Downtown Disney. There might be some Disney-themed presents coming the way of the little people in my life.
But we were down there for the basketball, and I made sure to document the trip for you, my loyal blog-reading friends. This is just a selection of my pictures from the week, mainly from the open practice day on Wednesday. I also omitted some shots that I would've wanted because they were either too blurry or I couldn't get them from the bus. There is also a very limited number from game day itself. Professional obligations kind of got in the way. (Don't worry, I did manage to take some.)
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| My hotel key. |
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| The hotel lobby (the banner's in front of a water wall, which is behind the elevator). |
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| Thanks to Milos, I was able to snag one of our extra tickets as a souvenir. |
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| The Jaspers during their open practice at the Amway Center. |
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| Just in case you were wondering how big the official bracket in the media room at each site is. |
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| This is the press row side (the one that you couldn't see on TV). |
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| Yeah, it's a big arena. |
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| We went to the Colorado-Pitt game so that we could see the Slice Man (the guy who gave me my nickname), who's now a Pitt assistant. |
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| Actual tip-off was 10:32. |
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| The Jaspers take the floor for warm-ups. (This was also the best I was able to get of the two logos on the scorer's table.) |
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| JasperNation was awesome! (Fortunately, we didn't get Spokane!) |
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| One last shot of the empty arena after the game. |
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Women's Bracket Breakdown
Even though there were some fairly obvious things about the NCAA women's bracket, that doesn't mean there weren't surprises. For starters, why is South Carolina a 1-seed? And I don't understand how Louisville's a 3. They're 30-4 this season, and three of those losses are to UConn (and they went to the National Championship Game last season, where they also lost to UConn, so make that four of their last five losses to the Huskies). That means they have a grand total of one loss to everybody other than the best team in the nation. I might've been able to make my peace with a 2, but a 3? Definitely not.
Ultimately, I don't really think it matters that much. Louisville is hosting a Regional, so they have to go there. Same thing with Stanford, which deserved the fourth No. 1 over South Carolina. But it's actually the Cardinal that have the advantage out West. South Carolina may be the 1-seed, but they've got to fly coast-to-coast for both the first/second rounds in Seattle and the regional at Stanford. Stanford has to go to Iowa State, but then gets to play the Regional at home.
And that brings me to the home regionals. I'm not a fan. With a berth in the Final Four on the line, the game should be on a neutral floor. Notre Dame is the only 1-seed hosting a Regional, which means that, theoretically, three of the four 1-seeds will have to play a road game in the Elite Eight. For UConn (at Nebraska), it's not really gonna matter, but don't be surprised to see Stanford beat South Carolina and Louisville knock off Tennessee, simply because of that home court advantage. Fortunately, it looks like next year, they'll be moving back to neutral site regionals. That's the way it should be. There are too many good teams, and, again, one of them shouldn't have to go on the road with the Final Four at stake. (No problem with the home teams in the first two rounds. It's necessary for attendance, and the disparity is great enough that the good teams should get that benefit. The higher seeds shouldn't have to play road games in the Tournament, though.)
Anyway, on to the field. UConn goes in as the undisputed favorite, and it sure looks like we're headed to a UConn-Notre Dame showdown. That would be incredible. Two undefeated teams, former bitter conference rivals, meeting in the National Championship Game. In fact, I think Notre Dame is the only team that has any chance of beating UConn. Although, we saw Louisville play the perfect game to beat Baylor last year, so it's certainly possible that will happen again. I just don't think it will.
As it should be for the No. 1 overall seed, UConn's route to Nashville is pretty straightforward. Home games in rounds one and two should be two overwhelming victories. The Sweet 16 game against Nebraska, on the Huskers' home floor, could be interesting, though. That might end up being UConn's toughest game of the tournament. The Huskies will win, but I don't even remember the last time they had to play a road game in the Tournament. The bottom portion of this bracket sets up for a Texas A&M-Duke matchup, and a Duke win would set up the Blue Devils to lose in the Elite Eight yet again.
Out West, Stanford's the No. 2 seed, but you've gotta see them as the favorite to get to Nashville. The back-and-forth travel is going to wear on South Carolina. I don't think South Carolina's better than Stanford, either. I especially don't like them on Stanford's home floor. I'm not even sure I see South Carolina beating the Michigan State-North Carolina winner. The biggest obstacle towards Stanford getting back to the Final Four might be Iowa State. That's a dangerous 7-seed, especially playing at home. I think Stanford comes through, but if they don't, look out for Penn State. Not many people are talking about them, but the Big Ten champs may be your tournament sleeper.
Notre Dame's region has the 2, 3 and 4-seeds hosting the first and second rounds, while the Irish will have to play a pair of neutral site contests in Toledo before returning to South Bend for the Regional. I don't think Robert Morris and Vanderbilt-Arizona State will provide much of a challenge for the Fighting Irish, but they'll get some competition in the Regional. Purdue is very good, Kentucky is desperate to get to the Final Four after three straight Elite Eight losses, and Baylor went 30-4 in its first year post-Griner. They're also eager to make up for last year. Throw in a Cal team that went to the Final Four last season and you've got perhaps the most competitive region. Notre Dame is the best team and should get through, but there will be plenty of good games in this region.
The region with the most intrigue, though, that's Louisville. People were upset the Louisville men got a 4. They're probably just as upset the women are a 3. Especially since Louisville is better than West Virginia, which got the 2 (probably based on the strength of the Big 12, which put eight teams in the field). Both of those teams have to win road games in round two, though. Louisville should get by Iowa, but I can see LSU pulling off the upset against West Virginia. The No. 1 seed in this region is what makes it so interesting, though. Tennessee hasn't been to the Final Four in five years. That's the longest drought in program history. Where's the Final Four this year? That's right, Nashville. You can bet Tennessee wants to be there pretty badly. Their whole season has been played with the Final Four in Nashville in mind. I can't wait for that Tennessee-Louisville regional final.
I'm not going with the chalk for my Final Four. You'd have to be a complete idiot or be going out on some crazy limb to think UConn and Notre Dame won't be there, but, as for the two SEC teams, I'm not so sure. I think Tennessee's chances are better than South Carolina's, but I'm not sure either one gets there. Stanford will win the regional at home, and I think Louisville might, as well. In a minor upset, I'm going with the Cardinals to knock off the Lady Vols.
That gives us UConn vs. Stanford and Notre Dame vs. Louisville. Three-quarters of last year's Final Four returns. Except this time we get the final we all want. UConn vs. Notre Dame. Last year, the Huskies won that incredible semifinal game. It'll be for the title this year, but I don't think the result will be any different. UConn caps an undefeated season with a second straight national title.
Ultimately, I don't really think it matters that much. Louisville is hosting a Regional, so they have to go there. Same thing with Stanford, which deserved the fourth No. 1 over South Carolina. But it's actually the Cardinal that have the advantage out West. South Carolina may be the 1-seed, but they've got to fly coast-to-coast for both the first/second rounds in Seattle and the regional at Stanford. Stanford has to go to Iowa State, but then gets to play the Regional at home.
And that brings me to the home regionals. I'm not a fan. With a berth in the Final Four on the line, the game should be on a neutral floor. Notre Dame is the only 1-seed hosting a Regional, which means that, theoretically, three of the four 1-seeds will have to play a road game in the Elite Eight. For UConn (at Nebraska), it's not really gonna matter, but don't be surprised to see Stanford beat South Carolina and Louisville knock off Tennessee, simply because of that home court advantage. Fortunately, it looks like next year, they'll be moving back to neutral site regionals. That's the way it should be. There are too many good teams, and, again, one of them shouldn't have to go on the road with the Final Four at stake. (No problem with the home teams in the first two rounds. It's necessary for attendance, and the disparity is great enough that the good teams should get that benefit. The higher seeds shouldn't have to play road games in the Tournament, though.)
Anyway, on to the field. UConn goes in as the undisputed favorite, and it sure looks like we're headed to a UConn-Notre Dame showdown. That would be incredible. Two undefeated teams, former bitter conference rivals, meeting in the National Championship Game. In fact, I think Notre Dame is the only team that has any chance of beating UConn. Although, we saw Louisville play the perfect game to beat Baylor last year, so it's certainly possible that will happen again. I just don't think it will.
As it should be for the No. 1 overall seed, UConn's route to Nashville is pretty straightforward. Home games in rounds one and two should be two overwhelming victories. The Sweet 16 game against Nebraska, on the Huskers' home floor, could be interesting, though. That might end up being UConn's toughest game of the tournament. The Huskies will win, but I don't even remember the last time they had to play a road game in the Tournament. The bottom portion of this bracket sets up for a Texas A&M-Duke matchup, and a Duke win would set up the Blue Devils to lose in the Elite Eight yet again.
Out West, Stanford's the No. 2 seed, but you've gotta see them as the favorite to get to Nashville. The back-and-forth travel is going to wear on South Carolina. I don't think South Carolina's better than Stanford, either. I especially don't like them on Stanford's home floor. I'm not even sure I see South Carolina beating the Michigan State-North Carolina winner. The biggest obstacle towards Stanford getting back to the Final Four might be Iowa State. That's a dangerous 7-seed, especially playing at home. I think Stanford comes through, but if they don't, look out for Penn State. Not many people are talking about them, but the Big Ten champs may be your tournament sleeper.
Notre Dame's region has the 2, 3 and 4-seeds hosting the first and second rounds, while the Irish will have to play a pair of neutral site contests in Toledo before returning to South Bend for the Regional. I don't think Robert Morris and Vanderbilt-Arizona State will provide much of a challenge for the Fighting Irish, but they'll get some competition in the Regional. Purdue is very good, Kentucky is desperate to get to the Final Four after three straight Elite Eight losses, and Baylor went 30-4 in its first year post-Griner. They're also eager to make up for last year. Throw in a Cal team that went to the Final Four last season and you've got perhaps the most competitive region. Notre Dame is the best team and should get through, but there will be plenty of good games in this region.
The region with the most intrigue, though, that's Louisville. People were upset the Louisville men got a 4. They're probably just as upset the women are a 3. Especially since Louisville is better than West Virginia, which got the 2 (probably based on the strength of the Big 12, which put eight teams in the field). Both of those teams have to win road games in round two, though. Louisville should get by Iowa, but I can see LSU pulling off the upset against West Virginia. The No. 1 seed in this region is what makes it so interesting, though. Tennessee hasn't been to the Final Four in five years. That's the longest drought in program history. Where's the Final Four this year? That's right, Nashville. You can bet Tennessee wants to be there pretty badly. Their whole season has been played with the Final Four in Nashville in mind. I can't wait for that Tennessee-Louisville regional final.
I'm not going with the chalk for my Final Four. You'd have to be a complete idiot or be going out on some crazy limb to think UConn and Notre Dame won't be there, but, as for the two SEC teams, I'm not so sure. I think Tennessee's chances are better than South Carolina's, but I'm not sure either one gets there. Stanford will win the regional at home, and I think Louisville might, as well. In a minor upset, I'm going with the Cardinals to knock off the Lady Vols.
That gives us UConn vs. Stanford and Notre Dame vs. Louisville. Three-quarters of last year's Final Four returns. Except this time we get the final we all want. UConn vs. Notre Dame. Last year, the Huskies won that incredible semifinal game. It'll be for the title this year, but I don't think the result will be any different. UConn caps an undefeated season with a second straight national title.
Monday, March 17, 2014
Men's Bracket Breakdown
At first glance, there aren't too many surprises out of this year's NCAA Tournament field. Everyone knew that Florida, Arizona and Wichita State were going to be the top three 1-seeds, and I had a feeling the fourth one would go to the Virginia-Duke winner. Especially with Michigan and Kansas both losing. I have absolutely no problem with Virginia being the 1 in the East.
As far as teams that didn't get in the field, SMU's the only one that I thought should've been there. Frankly, it's a bit of a surprise that the Mustangs are in the NIT. I thought they were a lock. That loss to Houston in the American quarters is probably what knocked them out. I never even considered NC State as a potential tourney team, either. You've gotta think it was NC State that knocked SMU out, and that probably speaks to the committee's respect for the ACC and lack thereof for the American (Louisville a 4!). I also think Providence winning the Big East Tournament is what knocked Xavier into the play-in game.
One of the other things I noticed was that the committee wasn't shy about taking advantage of the new seeding rules put in place this year. In the past, they couldn't put more than two teams from the same conference in the same region, and they had to keep them separated until the Elite Eight. But with so many conferences expanding to ridiculous sizes, they amended that slightly. Now they only have to be kept apart until the Sweet 16, which is the same as the women's rule. And it's definitely noticeable on the bracket. Three of the four American teams in the field are in the East, three Pac-12 teams in the South, and the Big 12's got three in the West.
The most difficult region certainly appears to be the Midwest. You've got three of last year's Final Four teams, as well as Duke and Kentucky. Whoever makes their way to Dallas out of that region is certainly going to earn it. The easiest path to Dallas, meanwhile, looks like Florida's. Although, the Gators are the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, so if anybody deserves an easy bracket, it's them. This is a team that's been to three straight Elite Eights. Everything looks to be in place for them to get over the hump this year.
Kansas was probably in the discussion for the last 1-seed until Embiid's injury, and after they lost their first game in the Big 12 Tournament, you knew they weren't going to get it. Syracuse also looked like a lock for a 1-seed for a while, but had its flaws quickly exposed once that winning streak ended. Syracuse does look like the most likely team to meet Florida in the Regional Final, though. They're playing virtual home games in the first two rounds in Buffalo, and that matchup with Ohio State will be a good one, but one they should survive. And I don't trust Kansas to even beat the New Mexico-Stanford winner, which leaves Syracuse coming out of the bottom half there. One last note about the South, don't be surprised if VCU-Stephen F. Austin is this year's 5-12 upset.
I'm very intrigued by some of the possible games in the East. You've got Memphis-GW, Cincinnati-Harvard, North Carolina-Providence and UConn-St. Joe's, and that's just in the first round! Then there's the old Big East battle between UConn and Villanova just to get to the Garden. In fact, four teams that were in last season's incarnation of that conference have a chance to play a regional at MSG. There are also crazy good teams from Michigan State and Iowa State, both of which are coming off conference titles. I think that's who we're going to see meeting on the Garden floor with a berth in the Final Four on the line.
Out west, Arizona's got to be considered the favorite, but I think this is going to be the region where we see a lot of upsets. Oklahoma has the potential to be a sleeper, and so does San Diego State. I think the winner of that game will give Arizona a very hard time. Baylor might be in the best position, though. They've got a very favorable draw to make a deep run. Although, the same can be said about Doug McDermott and Creighton. That's going to be a very entertaining second-round game. And this might finally be the year we see Wisconsin in the Final Four. They're playing the first two rounds in Milwaukee, and I think they've got a great shot at slowing down Arizona in Anaheim. I'm going to say Arizona, but there are four or five teams I can see winning the West region.
Then there's the Midwest. Picking this one is hard for a very different reason. There are so many good teams, it's almost impossible to separate them. It's probably on purpose that Wichita State was given the toughest region. They're undefeated, but didn't play a very tough schedule. In order to get to the Final Four, though, they might have to beat (in order) Kentucky, Louisville and Michigan/Duke. Not exactly the easiest road to the Final Four. Even though I'm professionally obligated to pick against Louisville in the first round, I love the way they rolled through the American Tournament, and I think they were grossly underseeded, especially with how much the committee loves Rick Pitino. Same thing with Duke. I thought they might be a 2, although I'm not overly upset with them being a 3. I was also impressed with Michigan's run to the Big Ten final, even though it might've cost them a 1-seed. A rematch of last year's National Championship Game with a trip to the Final Four at stake isn't out of the question. (Once again, professional obligations prevent me from making an official pick in the Midwest.)
Whoever comes out of the Midwest is going to have the advantage against the West winner in the Final Four. My other Final Four matchup is a rematch of the 2000 National Championship Game between Michigan State and Florida. The Gators are just too good, though. The last time they were the No. 1 overall seed with a senior-laden roster, they won their second straight national title. Well, seven years later, Florida is once again far-and-away the best team in the nation. I'd be very surprised to see someone else crowned National Champions on April 7.
As far as teams that didn't get in the field, SMU's the only one that I thought should've been there. Frankly, it's a bit of a surprise that the Mustangs are in the NIT. I thought they were a lock. That loss to Houston in the American quarters is probably what knocked them out. I never even considered NC State as a potential tourney team, either. You've gotta think it was NC State that knocked SMU out, and that probably speaks to the committee's respect for the ACC and lack thereof for the American (Louisville a 4!). I also think Providence winning the Big East Tournament is what knocked Xavier into the play-in game.
One of the other things I noticed was that the committee wasn't shy about taking advantage of the new seeding rules put in place this year. In the past, they couldn't put more than two teams from the same conference in the same region, and they had to keep them separated until the Elite Eight. But with so many conferences expanding to ridiculous sizes, they amended that slightly. Now they only have to be kept apart until the Sweet 16, which is the same as the women's rule. And it's definitely noticeable on the bracket. Three of the four American teams in the field are in the East, three Pac-12 teams in the South, and the Big 12's got three in the West.
The most difficult region certainly appears to be the Midwest. You've got three of last year's Final Four teams, as well as Duke and Kentucky. Whoever makes their way to Dallas out of that region is certainly going to earn it. The easiest path to Dallas, meanwhile, looks like Florida's. Although, the Gators are the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, so if anybody deserves an easy bracket, it's them. This is a team that's been to three straight Elite Eights. Everything looks to be in place for them to get over the hump this year.
Kansas was probably in the discussion for the last 1-seed until Embiid's injury, and after they lost their first game in the Big 12 Tournament, you knew they weren't going to get it. Syracuse also looked like a lock for a 1-seed for a while, but had its flaws quickly exposed once that winning streak ended. Syracuse does look like the most likely team to meet Florida in the Regional Final, though. They're playing virtual home games in the first two rounds in Buffalo, and that matchup with Ohio State will be a good one, but one they should survive. And I don't trust Kansas to even beat the New Mexico-Stanford winner, which leaves Syracuse coming out of the bottom half there. One last note about the South, don't be surprised if VCU-Stephen F. Austin is this year's 5-12 upset.
I'm very intrigued by some of the possible games in the East. You've got Memphis-GW, Cincinnati-Harvard, North Carolina-Providence and UConn-St. Joe's, and that's just in the first round! Then there's the old Big East battle between UConn and Villanova just to get to the Garden. In fact, four teams that were in last season's incarnation of that conference have a chance to play a regional at MSG. There are also crazy good teams from Michigan State and Iowa State, both of which are coming off conference titles. I think that's who we're going to see meeting on the Garden floor with a berth in the Final Four on the line.
Out west, Arizona's got to be considered the favorite, but I think this is going to be the region where we see a lot of upsets. Oklahoma has the potential to be a sleeper, and so does San Diego State. I think the winner of that game will give Arizona a very hard time. Baylor might be in the best position, though. They've got a very favorable draw to make a deep run. Although, the same can be said about Doug McDermott and Creighton. That's going to be a very entertaining second-round game. And this might finally be the year we see Wisconsin in the Final Four. They're playing the first two rounds in Milwaukee, and I think they've got a great shot at slowing down Arizona in Anaheim. I'm going to say Arizona, but there are four or five teams I can see winning the West region.
Then there's the Midwest. Picking this one is hard for a very different reason. There are so many good teams, it's almost impossible to separate them. It's probably on purpose that Wichita State was given the toughest region. They're undefeated, but didn't play a very tough schedule. In order to get to the Final Four, though, they might have to beat (in order) Kentucky, Louisville and Michigan/Duke. Not exactly the easiest road to the Final Four. Even though I'm professionally obligated to pick against Louisville in the first round, I love the way they rolled through the American Tournament, and I think they were grossly underseeded, especially with how much the committee loves Rick Pitino. Same thing with Duke. I thought they might be a 2, although I'm not overly upset with them being a 3. I was also impressed with Michigan's run to the Big Ten final, even though it might've cost them a 1-seed. A rematch of last year's National Championship Game with a trip to the Final Four at stake isn't out of the question. (Once again, professional obligations prevent me from making an official pick in the Midwest.)
Whoever comes out of the Midwest is going to have the advantage against the West winner in the Final Four. My other Final Four matchup is a rematch of the 2000 National Championship Game between Michigan State and Florida. The Gators are just too good, though. The last time they were the No. 1 overall seed with a senior-laden roster, they won their second straight national title. Well, seven years later, Florida is once again far-and-away the best team in the nation. I'd be very surprised to see someone else crowned National Champions on April 7.
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