Can you say "Group of Death?" That's exactly what the USA is facing after today's brutal World Cup draw. I don't feel as bad as I would if they USA had been drawn into Group D with Uruguay, Italy and England (the unfortunate assignment that was drawn by Costa Rica), but this one is just as brutal. And as they were drawing Pot 3, I was praying for H (and came thisclose to it).
So, other than the initial shock of the U.S. being drawn into the same group as perennial power Germany and perennial thorn-in-the-side Ghana, here are my thoughts on the entire World Cup draw, going in group order:
Group A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon
Our opening match will be Brazil vs. Croatia is Sao Paulo. You knew Brazil was going to get it somewhat easy if they didn't get that second European team, and sure enough, that was the case. Should be fairly easy for the hosts to make it out of this group. The European team certainly could've been tougher, and Cameroon is the lowest-ranked side in the entire tournament. You never know what you're going to get from Mexico, though. They, of course, almost didn't get out of CONCACAF qualifying, then completely dominated New Zealand in the two-legged play-in. If that Mexican team shows up, look out. Overall, a very favorable draw for El Tri. I think the Mexico-Croatia winner joins Brazil in round two.
Group B: Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia
We knew one of the seeds was going to end up getting the Netherlands in its group and sure enough it was Spain. And, as fate would have it, the first match in this group is a rematch of the 2010 final (FIFA, do you still think not seeding the Dutch was a good idea?). The winner of that match is in the driver's seat to avoid the Round of 16 matchup with Brazil (and it would really be unfortunate if we end up with Brazil-Spain in the Round of 16 instead of the final). This is probably the third-best group in terms of quality of the four teams. Australia's no pushover, and Chile, especially playing in South America, is going to be a tough matchup for both of the favored sides. However, Spain and the Netherlands are simply too good. It's a shame that they have to play each other this early in the tournament.
Group C: Colombia, Greece, Cote d'Ivoire, Japan
Colombia perhaps got it the best of all the seeds. This group is certainly winnable for them, especially since they'll have the quasi-homefield advantage. This is also a great draw for Cote d'Ivoire. They're the strongest African squad, and they suffered being in the Group of Death in 2010, so I guess this is their reward. I fully expect them to advance, and I don't think winning the group is out of the question. Japan also might sneak in there. I didn't really consider the Japanese as a contender for round two until the draw came out and they ended up in a group where them finishing second doesn't seem like that far of a reach. I'll take Colombia and Cote d'Ivoire to advance, though.
Group D: Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy
Group of Death, Part I. Good luck Costa Rica. There are three former World Cup champions in this group, and one of them isn't going to advance. First off, let's talk about the ridiculousness of "Pot X" and Italy ending up as the odd-man out when it came to the European teams. They should've been seeded. That's point No. 1. But then to take them and put them with the African teams, knowing that they were automatically going to face a South American seed? Time to rethink your seeding and draw procedures before Russia 2018. Anyway, there's no way Uruguay doesn't come out of this group, especially with the proximity of Uruguay to Brazil. Those fans are going to be loud! It really could come down to who wins that England-Italy game for the second spot, although how much the three beat Costa Rica by could definitely come into play. I've gotta think the Italians, after their terrible World Cup in 2010, then after getting screwed in the seeding, then getting screwed in the draw, will be pissed off enough to make everyone else in the group pay. Italy and Uruguay (the teams that played in the bronze medal match at the Confederations Cup) advance.
Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras
The French should be saying a big "Merci" to FIFA (or, more specifically the French head of UEFA) for this draw. Because instead of being in Pot 2 like they should've been as the lowest-ranked European team, they end up in a group where Les Bleues advancing to round two doesn't seem that far-fetched. The Swiss shouldn't have been seeded, and this along with H, is probably the softest group of them all. Ecuador's going to win this group. There's no doubt in my mind about that. They couldn't have asked for a better draw. Honduras even has a shot to come out of Group E. I think that second spot goes to one of the two luckiest European teams in the field, though. Whoever wins the Switzerland-France game moves on. Since the French have a tendency to stink it up at the World Cup, though, I'll say it's Switzerland. After all, they did beat Spain in the opening game in 2010.
Group F: Argentina, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria
A dream draw for Argentina, a side that I wouldn't be surprised to win the whole thing. They even got a game near the border in Porto Alegre, so it's their dream draw not just in terms of teams, but in terms of where they're going to play (their opener's at Maracana). Nigeria seems to always end up in the same group as Argentina, but this time that could be a good thing. There's no prohibitive favorite for the second spot, which seems wide open. Bosnia's also got to like its chances in its World Cup debut. I don't think I'm going out on a limb to say that Bosnia's the second-best team in this group. In fact, I see them advancing alongside the Argentines.
Group G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, United States
So much for those visions of grandeur for Team USA. Group of Death II is about as bad as it could've gotten for the U.S. Probably the only thing worse would've been Italy or Holland instead of Portugal. I'm not saying they can't or even that they won't advance. All I'm saying is that Group H would've been a lot more preferable to Group G. You do have the Klinsmann vs. Germany storyline and the Boateng brothers storyline, as well as Portugal's memories of losing to the U.S. in 2002, and the Americans' knowledge that it was Ghana that knocked them out of the previous two World Cups. Other than Germany being the favorite, this group is way too wide-open to make any sort of predictions. Although, that's usually the case with the Group of Death. I don't have that much faith in Portugal, so I'll say the second spot goes to the USA-Ghana winner. If the Americans lose that game, the World Cup could be over before it starts, especially with Germany looming in the final game of group play. Whoever finishes second in this group, though, has a decent-looking path to the semifinals. Better than even Germany's. So, I guess that's some kind of reward for coming out of the toughest draw.
Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea
From arguably the best group in the entire tournament, to arguably the worst. Belgium's probably going to win the group by default. Once again, an undeserving seed gets a cupcake of a draw and virtual free pass to the second round. Algeria's not going to advance, so they're not even worth discussing. Russia could be interesting. Second place in this group (or even first) is very attainable, and that would set the Russians up on a nice path leading up to their hosting in 2018. South Korea's a dark horse though. Talk about a gift. They're capable of beating all three of these teams. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Koreans advance. Regardless, the two teams that move on lose to the Group G teams in the Round of 16. (And, for the record, if that dude pulls out Korea's ball first and the U.S. ends up in this group, they probably end up as group favorites. But so is the luck of the draw, especially when FIFA's involved.)
That's my initial take. There's still six months until the World Cup, though, so I don't want to get too involved in making picks right now beyond my first impressions of who I think might end up coming out. Way too much time left. Let the discussions begin, though. One thing's for sure, however. I can't wait until Brazil-Croatia on June 12.
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