If I've learned anything about the NFL this season, it's that you can't predict anything in the NFL. There were a number of games this past weekend that had playoff implications, and they all yielded results that impacted the entire race. So, basically, everybody that could've clinched something lost, a number of teams that needed to win did, and the Week 16 and 17 games will be crazy. Especially with a number of these playoff contenders playing each other.
Let's start in the AFC, where Denver's loss to the Chargers on Thursday night is what got this all started. That opened things up for the Patriots, who would've moved into the No. 1 position had they beaten the Dolphins. Except New England lost, meaning they had to wait around and see if Cincinnati would knock them out of the second bye. Then the Bengals go get absolutely shellacked on Sunday night in Pittsburgh, keeping the top three spots exactly the same. That wasn't all, either. The Dolphin win put them into the second wild card spot over the Ravens, who then got it back with their Monday night win in Detroit, which was only clinched on a 61-yard field goal in the final minute.
The big winners here? Well, obviously, Baltimore. The AFC North wasn't even considered a possibility entering play this week. Now the Ravens are in a position that if they win their last two games, they'll win a division that everyone has assumed Cincinnati would win for weeks now. Of course, winning their last two is easier said than done (the Ravens have the Patriots and Bengals left), but I wouldn't sleep on Baltimore, either. They won the Super Bowl last year for a reason.
The AFC's other big winner was Kansas City. They crushed Oakland as expected, locking up their playoff berth. But the AFC West is suddenly back in play. Denver still has the upper hand by virtue of their sweeping the season series with the Chiefs, but the Chiefs still have hope of hosting a playoff game at Arrowhead. Two wins and Bronco loss is all it takes. Chances are we'll still have a Kansas City-Indianapolis wild card game. It doesn't seem so guaranteed anymore, though.
Moving over to the NFC, the only thing that seems certain is that Seattle will be the No. 1 seed (and very tough to beat). The Seahawks just need a win or a 49er loss to wrap up home field. Other than that, though, we've got really no idea how the NFC is going to play out. That's thanks to Dallas, Detroit and New Orleans losses in Week 15.
We'll start in the South, the division that will give us the NFC's No. 2 seed. It's looked like a virtual certainty for much of the season that that would be New Orleans. Especially after the Saints beat Carolina handily in Week 14. So what happens in Week 15? The Panthers win and the Saints, inexplicably, get smacked in St. Louis. So, going into the rematch on Sunday, we're right back where we started. The winner will boast first-place in the NFC South and be in the driver's seat for the No. 2 seed (in fact, the Saints would clinch that spot with a win), but that doesn't seem too guaranteed. Carolina is extremely tough at home, and New Orleans has struggled on the road.
Speaking of the Panthers, it looks like they're going to be in the playoffs no matter what, with that other wild card probably coming out of the West. The 49ers are hot, the defending NFC champions, and playing like a playoff team. I'd still be surprised if they're not the No. 6 seed, but that Week 17 matchup with Arizona has suddenly become a lot more significant. The 49ers can't slip up on Monday night against Falcons. Otherwise, that becomes a winner-take-all showdown for the NFC's second wild card spot and a trip to Dallas/Philadelphia in the playoffs. And as for the Cardinals, wait 'til next year. They're going to be really good next season. They might even end up guest starring in the 2013 playoffs.
I saved the "best" for last. Nobody wants to win the NFC East or the NFC North. Dallas, Dallas, Dallas. Where do I start with the Cowboys? That was some of the worst game management I've ever seen on Sunday. How do you blow a 23-point halftime lead? More importantly, why are you throwing the ball when you have a 23-point halftime lead and a terrible defense? Frankly, the Cowboys deserved to lose that game. And as a result, the Week 17 showdown that most people thought would decide the division could end up being completely meaningless. If the Eagles beat the Bears and Dallas loses to Washington on Sunday, Philadelphia clinches the division. And even if Dallas does get into the playoffs, there's no chance they get beyond that first game. Especially if it's against Carolina.
The craziest division of them all, though, is the NFC North. We've got a three-way race between the Lions, Bears and Packers, all of whom seem to be trying not to get in. Detroit entered Week 15 in first place. When Week 15 ended, the Lions were in third. And no longer in control of their own destiny. The Bears, meanwhile, are just as confusing as the Cowboys. Chicago looks terrible one week, then looks like world-beaters the next. But now they've got Jay Cutler back, so the Bears might be in prime position to make a run. Except their final two games are against the Eagles and the Packers. Ah yes, the Packers. Tony Dungy has theorized that they're going to be the team that wins the NFC North, and that tie takes them out of all potential tiebreakers. It would be crazy if they get Aaron Rodgers back for the final two games and end up winning the division.
There are a few key games that are going to have alot of bearing on the playoff race over the next two weeks. On Sunday, we've got Patriots-Ravens, Saints-Panthers and Bears-Eagles, as well as Seahawks-Cardinals. Then, of course, Week 17 features the now-traditional slate of division matchups, none more important than Chicago-Green Bay, San Francisco-Arizona, Baltimore-Cincinnati and Dallas-Philadelphia. Who wins these games and ends up in the playoffs might not be decided by who's playing the best football, either. It might be decided by who ends up playing worst. Because if this week is any indication, there are some teams that desperately want to be in the playoffs, and others that don't deserve to be there. We'll find out over the next two weeks which is which.
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