I was too lazy to do a blog last night, so our breakdown of the Hall of Fame vote is a day later then promised. The vote came as no surprise, with Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven getting elected, and they will join Pat Gillick in Cooperstown in July. Alomar is the first second baseman elected by the writers since Ryne Sandberg in 2005, while it had been 12 years since the last full-time starting pitcher was elected, Nolan Ryan in 1999.
Possibly the greatest all-around second baseman in history, Alomar got a whopping 90 percent of the vote, going from 397 votes last year to 523 this year. Evidently, making him wait one year was penance enough for the spitting incident with umpire John Hirschbeck in 1996. Some also make the distinction between "certain Hall of Famer" and "first-ballot Hall of Famer." I can understand that distinction, so I'm completely OK with Robby having to wait a year to get in. Alomar made 12 straight all-star teams, won 10 Gold Gloves, hit over .300 nine times (winning four Silver Sluggers), scored 100 more runs six times and stole 30 or more bases eight times in a 17-year career with seven different teams.
Even though he played for seven teams, the decision of which hat will be on his plaque is pretty easy. Alomar left his greatest mark as a member of the Blue Jays from 1991-95, during which time Toronto won the World Series twice. Fellow Hall of Famers Dave Winfield, Rickey Henderson and Paul Molitor were on those Blue Jays teams (and Phil Niekro also played for Toronto), but Alomar should be the first to wear a Blue Jays hat forever in Cooperstown.
Blyleven, whose career began 41 years ago, had to wait 14 years before finally getting into the Hall of Fame. He only got 17.5 percent of the vote in 1998, his first year on the ballot, and that number actually dropped to 14.1 percent. However, desipte throwing his last Major League pitch in 1992, Blyleven's total went up every year after that. He missed election by just five votes last year, and made it this year. So, the guy with the greatest of all the Chris Berman nicknames--Bert "Be Home" Blyleven--finally gets his due as the first Dutch-born Hall of Famer. Blyleven played for five teams during a 23-year career, but spent parts of 11 of them in Minnesota (and is currently a Twins broadcaster), so he'll probably be inducted as a Twin.
Barry Larkin and Jack Morris were the only other players to gather more than 50 percent of the vote, which bodes well for them in the future. With no sure fire first-ballot Hall of Famers debuting on the ballot next year (in fact, Bernie Williams might be the only new guy who even stays on the ballot), Larkin's chances of getting inducted in 2012 look pretty good. Morris only has two years left on the ballot, so he might have to wait and take his chances with the Veteran's Committe (although, as I've said repeatedly, I think Morris should be in).
In 2013, A-listers Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Craig Biggo and Curt Schilling all join the party. Steroid allegations aside, Bonds and Clemens should go in on the first ballot, as should Wonder Boy (my special nickname for Piazza). Then Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas become eligible in 2014, and they're all locks. Class of 2015: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz. And then my favorite all-time player, Ken Griffey Jr., in 2016. The writers generally put in only one or two (maybe three) players a year, which means some of these guys will have to wait a couple years.
In other words, if Larkin and Morris, the "best" (meaning "most likely to get elected") candidates on the 2012 ballot, don't get in next year, it's probably not going to happen, at least not anytime soon. There are 12 other holdovers next year and, other than Bernie, it will be generous to even put the newcomers on the ballot (although four people actually voted for Marquis Grissom this year and somebody voted for David Segui last year). And seeing as the voters are left to be judge and jury for the suspected steriod users, Mark McGwire (who should) and Rafael Palmerio (who shouldn't) aren't getting in. (McGwire's total actually went down this year, and Palmeiro debuted at just 11 percent.) So, 2012 is a good year to be an otherwise borderline Hall of Fame candidate. The voters will be hesitant to have nobody get elected, so count on at least Larkin getting the necessary 75 percent. But I suspect everybody's vote totals will go up, especially since there might not be any room for them on the ballot in 2013 and onwawrds.
Looking at a potential ballot for next year, my early call is that Barry Larkin will get in and Jack Morris will get close, but fall short. As for my preliminary vote, right now I think it's looking like the eight guys I voted for this year: Larkin, Morris, McGwire, Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker and Don Mattingly, as well as Bernie Williams and Fred McGriff, who replace Alomar and Blyleven among my 10. I don't take steriod allegations/suspensions into account, but McGriff was better than Palmeiro. Besides, I'm still pissed about Palmeiro's 1997 Gold Glove at DH, the one he stole from Tino Martinez.
It's embarassing that McGwire got so many more votes than Palmeiro. If you're going to classify Big Mac's 573 homer as legit, then you need to do the same for Raffy's 3,000+ hits and 500+ homers... which player looked like a bigger idiot in front of a congressional committee should have nothing to do with it.
ReplyDeleteI never thought Palmeiro was that good. In my opinion, his counting stats only got so high because he played so many years as a DH at the end of his career simply to pad his numbers. McGwire was a beast. Nobody feared Palmeiro.
ReplyDeleteHappy new year, Joe.
ReplyDeleteI'd say that it doesn't look as good for Morris - along with those diminishing years on the ballot as you mentioned, it looks like he's lost momentum; his vote % barely changed this year.
Guys like him, Larkin, Raines, etc., must be hoping that, given the lack of a clear-cut first-timer next year (I'd guess Bernie gets 20% or less), voters just load up their ballots with familiar faces. Because like you said, 2013 and beyond is going to be crazy.