Championship Sunday

Thanks to everyone who wrote comments saying how much they enjoyed the baseball uniform blog.  Since it got such a positive response, there may be a football version in the future, but not today.  Today we've got some serious business to worry about: the NFL conference championship games.

I've had Jets-fan friends (even though some of them aren't followers, Sam) asking me to pick the Steelers all week.  I guess since I picked against the Jets in each of the first two games and they won them both, Rex Ryan is using Joe Brackets to motivate his team.  Who knew that I've had that much of an impact on people (NFL head coaches no less) in just a few short months of blogging?!  But, I'm going to give you my picks in order, and since the NFC Championship Game is first, I'm doing Packers-Bears first.

NFC: The longest and perhaps most historic rivalry in the NFL takes on a new twist as the Packers and Bears play in the NFC Championship Game for the first time.  The Bears and Packers have played 181 times since the series started in 1921, with Chicago holding a 92-83-6 lead.  However, this marks just the second time they're meeting in the playoffs.  In 1941, they finished tied for the Western Division title, so they had to play a one-game playoff to determine who would meet the Giants for the championship.  The Bears won that game 33-14, then beat the Giants 37-9 to win the championship a week later. 

So, that 1941 game aside, this is the most important game in the history of the Bears-Packers rivalry.  One of them is going to the Super Bowl and doing so at the expense of the other.  When Lovie Smith was hired as Bears coach, he said that his priorities on the job were (in this order): 1. beat the Packers, 2. win the Super Bowl.  That says everything right there.  These two teams met at Lambeau in Week 17.  The Packers needed a win to clinch a playoff spot, while the Bears had already clinched the No. 2 seed.  Yet the Bears kept their starters in for the entire game and played to win.  Why?  Because not only did they want to beat the Packers and ruin Green Bay's season, but they also didn't want to see the Packers again in the playoffs.

But here we are less than a month later for the third meeting of the year between the bitter rivals (who are also the two most successful franchises in NFL history).  Each team won at home during the regular season, so you might say that gives the edge to Chicago, but one team that's certainly not going to be effected by January Chicago weather is the Green Bay Packers.  In fact, the Packers are a road favorite in this one!  Talent-wise, the Packers might be the best team left, and Green Bay peaked at just the right time.  Teams that are playing their best football at the end of the season are always dangerous come playoff time, just ask the 2005 Steelers or 2007 Giants. 

Anyway, the game should come down to a battle between the two awesome defenses.  Whoever's able to run will probably have the advantage, so it might come down to Matt Forte.  If Forte can run, the Bears can kill the clock and won't have to worry about Jay Cutler making a crucial mistake while trying to force something.  The Packers probably won't have that luxury.  They might need Aaron Rodgers to make plays to win them the game and take the necessary chances in order to do that.  Winning the turnover battle is going to be clutch.  Whichever QB is able to throw the ball to his own receivers instead of the opposing corners could be the difference in this game.  Aaron Rodgers needs to win this game to prove that he belongs up there with Manning, Brady, Brees and Roethlisberger as an elite quarterback in this league.  I think he does.  Plus, Green Bay's playing too well (remember the Atlanta game?).  23-17 Packers.

AFC: Jets Fever (or should I say the Jets Bandwagon) has overtaken New York.  It's not that I hate the Jets, I just don't care one way or the other whether they win or lose.  If they do win the Super Bowl, I won't be going down to the Canyon of Heroes chanting "Brady Sucks" like I did when a certain other New York football team won the Super Bowl three years ago.  I'm a Giants fan.  Quit trying to get me to jump aboard the bandwagon for a team people only care about during the playoffs!

Now that I've gotten that out of my system, I can actually break down the game now.  The Jets face another difficult challenge against a Steelers team that won it all just two years ago.  Their Week 15 victory at Heinz Field (after losing their previous seven games in Pittsburgh) should give them a ton of confidence, but it should also serve as all the motivation the Steelers need.  Just like in the NFC, this game will probably come down to which defense is able to stop the run more effectively, as well as which team makes the big plays. 

A healthy Troy Polamalu makes the Steelers a much better team than when he's not in the lineup.  He didn't play in the Week 15 meeting.  But we all know the names of all the great defensive guys these two teams have.  The offensive guys are the ones who need to make the difference.  On the ground, it looks like the Jets might have a bit of an advantage with Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson (he's not LT, that's Lawrence Taylor), while the Steelers only have Rashad Mendenhall.  However, I'm going to be watching the wide receiver-cornerback matchups.  Each team has one shutdown corner (the Jets' Darrelle Revis and the Steelers' Ike Taylor).  You have to assume that Revis will cover Hines Ward and Taylor will cover Braylon Edwards, which means Antwaan Randle El and Santonio Holmes could be the difference-makers.  And you know how much Holmes wants to beat the Steelers.  Big Ben has been here before.  He's won two Super Bowls, one on the last play.  Mark Sanchez has been great so far in the playoffs, outplaying future Hall of Famers Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but he has to be great again this week if the Jets are going to win.  If Sanchez looks like the guy who played against the Colts in last season's AFC Championship Game, forget about it.

Jets fans really need to shut up about "how much they've accomplished this season."  You haven't accomplished a damn thing yet!  You're at the same point you got to last season, when the Colts kicked your asses all over the field in the second half.  If you get to the Super Bowl, then you can start talking.  Until then, shut up.  I'm almost compelled to pick the Jets just to piss off the Jets "fans," but I can't do it.  The Steelers are the better team, and they're angry about that Week 15 loss.  Add the revenge factor to all those Terrible Towel-waving fans, and it adds up J-E-T-S!  Lose!  Lose!  Lose!  24-14.

So Jets fans, there you have it.  Go ahead and start putting money down on that Jets-Bears Super Bowl.  But just think about how cool it would be if I actually picked both games right and we get a Packers-Steelers Super Bowl?  It would be awesome, wouldn't it?