The NFL Divisional Playoffs are upon us and I'm going to try my best to break down the matchups and make some predictions. Although, you might want to go against my picks after my stellar 1-3 wild card weekend. (However, I don't condone gambling.) Anyway, we've got a very interesting set of matchups where three of the four road teams have already beaten their opponent this season and the fourth, the Packers, lost 20-17. In other words, all four games could go either way, especially in the AFC, where two heated division rivalries have their rubber matches this weekend.
Jets-Patriots: The Jets beat the Patriots in Week 2, but New England returned the favor by thumping the Jets 45-3 in Foxboro a little over a month ago. The Patriots are undefeated at home this season and have only lost once at home in the last two years (in last year's playoffs against the Ravens). Even though they're my AFC Super Bowl pick, I don't think the Patriots are as unbeatable as some others do. The Jets aren't scared of the them, and they're out to prove that the Week 13 shellacking was a fluke. Tom Brady is probably going to be the MVP, but the Jets defense shut down Peyton Manning last week. The war of words all week has gotten ridiculous, but the moral of the story is that these two teams don't like each other. However, the Patriots know better than to underestimate the Jets. They know this is going to be more like the first game than the second game, but I think the fact that the game's in Foxboro gives New England the edge. Even though I don't want either team to win (as I said in Wednesday's blog), I detest the city of Boston, so I'm going to pull for the local team in this one. Unfortunately, I think the Patriots take this one. 28-17 New England.
Ravens-Steelers: I don't care what anybody says, this is the best rivalry in the NFL right now. Every time they play it's a war, and every game is decided by three points. I guess that's what happens when you have two teams that are known for their defenses matching up. I wouldn't be surprised to see the winner of this matchup knock off the Patriots for the AFC Championship, but they have to deal with each other first. The Ravens might be the best road team in NFL playoff history (have they ever even played a home playoff game? I seriously can't remember!), and they've got Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata. But the Steelers have Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Casey Hampton and James Farrior. The X-factor might be Ben Roethlisberger, though. Big Ben was still suspended for the first game, a 17-14 Ravens win in Pittsburgh, then wasn't 100 percent when the Steelers returned the favor with a 13-10 win in Baltimore. But he's healthy now, and the Steelers had the benefit of the week off. This is the hardest game of the weekend to pick, but that should be enough to give Pittsburgh the edge. I'm taking the Steelers, 16-13.
Packers-Falcons: The Packers are the only one of the four teams that didn't beat its opponent this weekend during the regular season, but don't be surprised if it happens this time. Green Bay was a popular Super Bowl pick in the preseason, and they're starting to show why. Teams that are playing their best football of the season entering the playoffs are always the most dangerous, and that's certainly the case with the Packers. They almost beat the Patriots with Matt Flynn at quarterback, then beat the Giants and Bears to get in, and topped it off with a wild card win over the Eagles. Now they get the Falcons, one of the most underrated good teams I've ever seen. Matt Ryan is a monster. So are Roddy White and Michael Turner. But they have to go against that defense led by Clay Matthews (the likely Defensive Player of the Year) and Charles Woodson. If the Eagles had won and Atlanta was playing Seattle, it would be an easy call to pick the Falcons, but I'm torn with this one. Atlanta's good enough to get to the Super Bowl (they were my pre-playoff pick to win the NFC) and almost unbeatable at home (7-1 this season), but there's just something about the way the Packers are playing right now. I don't know why, but I'm going to stick with my gut and pick Green Bay in this one. 24-16.
Seahawks-Bears: The most surprising result of last weekend was obviously the Seahawks beating the defending champion Saints. Still being proclaimed as the "worst playoff team in history," Seattle is now the first sub-.500 team ever to survive to the second round. Now they head to Chicago, a place where they won in Week 6. In other words, don't write off the Seahawks as an easy out. (We all saw how well that worked last week.) The Bears follow a very weird formula in that they suck for a couple years, get decent, then make the playoffs the following year before the cycle repeats itself. And that playoff appearance is usually a fluke that ends with a blowout loss (did anyone actually think they had a chance in the Super Bowl against the Colts?). But this year is different. This is a good Chicago team. I honestly think that this team is good enough to get to the Super Bowl. They've got that trademark Bears defense (sense a theme here?), but the offense is surprisingly good as well. Of course, playing Seattle means that the Bears can't take advantage of the January Chicago weather as much as they would normally be able to, but that shouldn't matter. The Bears are the better team and will win the game, 31-14.
Will all of these predictions be right? Probably not. I'm counting on it. That's the beauty of this weekend. Normally, the four home teams have such a distinct advantage in the Divisional Playoffs. But that's not the case this year, especially in the AFC with the two division games. I said all year that the four best teams in football might be in the same two AFC divisions, so it's appropriate that they're facing off this weekend and one of the four is guaranteed a place in Dallas. In the NFC, Atlanta, Chicago and Green Bay are all good enough to win the Super Bowl. Basically what I'm saying here is that other than Seahawks-Bears, I think each of the games can go either way. I, for one, can't wait to watch the games and find out which way they'll go.
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