NFL Picks, Week 18

We made it!  Not just to 2026, but to the end of a crazy NFL regular season!  When the season started, there were very few, if any, people who would've had the Bears, Patriots, Jaguars and Broncos ALL winning their divisions.  Yet, we're looking at all of those teams having home playoff games.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Lions and either the Steelers or Ravens will be watching the playoffs at home.

It's also always so funny to me how, without fail, someone's inevitably gonna have a problem with the Week 18 schedule.  There are three standalone games and three winner-take-all matchups.  So, it stood to reason that those three games would be plugged into the standalone windows.  Yes, CBS and FOX ended up with the short straw, but that's what happens in Week 18 sometimes.  And putting Steelers-Ravens on Sunday night isn't East Coast bias.  It's a rivalry game between two popular teams that they usually have on Sunday night every season (and they probably didn't want to have back-to-back Sunday night games in the same place, so it makes complete sense that they picked Pittsburgh-Baltimore for Game 272).

Panthers (8-8) at Buccaneers (7-9): Carolina-A Carolina win just makes life easier for everybody.  Of course, the Bucs beating Miami would've made this a true winner-take-all, but now we're looking at a situation where a Tampa Bay win and an Atlanta win forces a three-way tie where the Panthers win the division anyway.  That would, of course, also mean that the NFC South winner finishes 8-9 and hosts a 12-win wild card team (likely on Saturday afternoon).  Again, a Panthers win takes care of all that.

Seahawks (13-3) at 49ers (12-4): San Francisco-The winner of this one is the No. 1 seed in the NFC.  And don't think that's a small thing.  Especially for the 49ers, who are hosting the Super Bowl and could literally play their final five games of the season at home.  The difference between No. 1, No. 5 and especially No. 6 is huge for the three NFC West teams, too.  Whoever loses this one has to go on the road to face an East-coast team next week (and probably early Saturday if they're the 5-seed).  The good news for the Seahawks is that they just won in Carolina last week.

Saints (6-10) at Falcons (7-9): Atlanta-I've been saying all season that the Falcons are perhaps the most frustrating team in the league to watch.  Because you never know who's gonna show up!  This is a team with some really bad losses, but has also beaten a bunch of playoff teams.  Imagine what would've happened had they actually shown up for every game!  They'd be running away with the division instead of already eliminated.  Think about this, too: Atlanta can finish in a three-way tie for first or a two-way tie for last!

Browns (4-12) at Bengals (6-10): Cincinnati-Cincinnati seems to be trying to leave the NFL a message heading into the 2026 season.  The Bengals have scored 82 points in their last two games, both of which came against bad teams (Miami and Arizona).  They end the season against another bad team, albeit one that upset the Steelers last week (to set up the Ravens-Steelers showdown for the division).  Don't expect them to do it again.

Packers (9-6-1) at Vikings (8-8): Minnesota-Green Bay is locked into the 7-seed, so I'm curious to see who plays for the Packers and for how long.  One guy we know will play is Trevon Diggs.  Because why wouldn't they end the regular season the same way they started it...by snagging one of the Cowboys' best defensive players?  Anyway, Minnesota actually has a lot to play for.  J.J. McCarthy will start, as they look to finish not just with a winning record, but with a five-game winning streak.  Which, depending on what happens with the Panthers-Bucs game, could be a better record than the NFC South winner (which, of course, has Vikings' fans panties in a bunch about how "unfair" that is).

Cowboys (7-8-1) at Giants (3-13): Dallas-Before all the Travon Diggs drama, the Cowboys had a pretty solid win in Washington on Christmas.  It was an important win, too.  It set them up to finish .500 (which is only possible in the NFL now if you have a tie).  That does matter to them, even though they entered this season expecting so much more.  The Giants already cost themselves the No. 1 pick with their win last week, so this week they'll go back to being the Giants.

Titans (3-13) at Jaguars (12-4): Jacksonville-Jacksonville's exceptional season can really only end one way.  The Jaguars are playing a bad Titans team.  If they lose, they don't deserve to win the division or have a shot at the No. 1 seed.  With the way this season has gone, though, they also don't deserve to not have a home playoff game.  They can't rely on the Colts.  They'll take care of their own business, get the win, then watch the late games to see if they're the 1-, 2- or 3-seed.

Colts (8-8) at Texans (11-5): Houston-When the Colts were 8-2 at their bye week, this certainly wasn't how they were expecting their season to end.  Of course, injuries had a lot to do with their six-game skid, but still, you know they have to be extremely disappointed.  The Colts' fall coincided with the Texans' rise.  Houston will be a very dangerous team in the playoffs, even if they have to go on the road.  That's not a guarantee, though.  They'll do their part, then hope they get some help from the Titans.

Jets (3-13) at Bills (11-5): Buffalo-For their final game at Highmark Stadium, the Bills are bringing back the red helmets!  There's a slight possibility they'll have a home playoff game, but everyone understands that this is pretty much it for the venerable stadium.  Where the Bills are headed next week is obviously still up in the air, but all of that, frankly, isn't relevant.  This is about saying farewell to their longtime home, and they simply can't allow it to end with a loss to the Jets.

Lions (8-8) at Bears (11-5): Chicago-Losing last week wasn't that devastating for the Bears.  Their chances of getting the 1-seed were slim either way, and they have the tiebreaker over the Eagles.  So, all they need to do is beat the Lions and they get the 2-seed (which means a home game against the Packers next week).  I think most fans are excited about the possibility of seeing the Chicago-Green Bay rivalry in the playoffs, especially after that insane game two weeks ago!

Chargers (11-5) at Broncos (13-3): Denver-Had the Chargers beaten the Texans last week, this one would've been for the AFC West (and likely in one of the primetime slots).  Instead, Denver enters the regular season finale with the division already wrapped up.  They still need a win to lock up the 1-seed, though, and don't think that's an unimportant detail.  They very much want the AFC playoffs going through Denver.  And the Chargers know they're going on the road next week either way.

Chiefs (6-10) at Raiders (2-14): Kansas City-Is this Travis Kelce's last game?  (I think yes.)  Is it Pete Carroll's?  (I think no.)  Either way, the Chiefs and Raiders will be happy to leave the 2025 season in the past.  Although, Las Vegas could get a nice consolation prize in the No. 1 pick.  They seemed to understand what was at stake last week against the Giants.  I'd imagine that came into their thought process for sitting Blake Bowers and Maxx Crosby.

Cardinals (3-13) at Rams (11-5): Rams-There's only so much the Rams can do about their playoff fate, which could already be determined by the time they play.  They know they're going on the road next week and know they would much prefer a trip to Charlotte or Tampa than Philadelphia or Chicago.  Even if their seed is already locked in, Sean McVay said the starters are playing.  Which makes sense for a team that's lost two straight and needs to find its groove heading into the playoffs.

Dolphins (7-9) at Patriots (13-3): New England-Remember a decade ago when the Patriots and Broncos were the 1- and 2-seeds in the AFC every year while they had Brady and Peyton?  Well, here we are again, looking at Denver and New England being the top two seeds in the AFC.  Drake Maye might've locked up the MVP last week, and Mike Vrabel's certainly got a strong Coach of the Year case.  They can possibly drop to the 3-seed with a loss, but don't expect that to happen.

Commanders (4-12) at Eagles (11-5): Philadelphia-After these two met in the NFC Championship Game last season, it was probably the hope/expectation that this matchup would decide the NFC East.  That's obviously not how it turned out.  The Eagles have clinched the division and know they're probably the No. 3 seed in the playoffs.  There's still a chance they can be No. 2, though, so they'll have to play their starters (at least at the beginning of the game).  If they were locked in, I'd pick Washington.  Since they aren't, I'm taking the Eagles.

Ravens (8-8) at Steelers (9-7): Pittsburgh-Game 272 is the AFC North Championship Game.  Pittsburgh could've clinched last week, but it almost seems right that they lost to the Browns and set up this one as an elimination game for both teams.  (It's the Ravens' third straight game on NBC/Peacock, BTW.)  With the way the Steelers' season has been going, it's weird to think of them being in this position.  Needing a win to clinch the division or missing the playoffs entirely with a loss.  It's also somewhat surprising to see the Ravens in this position after their terrible start.  All season long, it's been Pittsburgh's division to lose.  That's still the case in the last game.  The Steelers win the AFC North.

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 162-93-1