NFL Picks, Wild Card

It was so funny seeing all those "experts" analyze the Wild Card Weekend schedule and why certain games were at certain times.  Yes, the Texans' tongue-in-cheek celebration about not having the Saturday afternoon game was funny, but there was no chance of that happening this season.  In fact, the NFL telegraphed this week's schedule when they scheduled last week's games. 

The Saturday afternoon game is on FOX this season, so it was gonna be an NFC game (which meant it couldn't be the Texans).  And they didn't just put Panthers-Bucs on Saturday afternoon last week because it was a quasi-winner-take-all.  They did it because the winner was gonna host the Saturday afternoon wild card game.  And, since that's the NFC 4-5 game and the Monday night wild card game also has to be a 4-5 game (so that they can set the schedule for the Divisional Playoffs on Sunday night), that meant the Texans and Steelers/Ravens were locked into Monday night.

What was interesting, though, was the article describing why Packers-Bears is on Saturday night.  That was the only real surprise of the Wild Card Weekend schedule, but the explanation did make sense.  Basically, FOX didn't care whether they got Packers-Bears or Eagles-49ers and they had both regular season games.  Sunday Night Football, meanwhile, was essentially a playoff game last week, so NBC wasn't given priority.  As a result, it ended up as the Prime game on Saturday night.

Which, if you think about it, was the only real place it could go.  Thinking ahead to next week, the NFL wants the rest to be as equal as possible.  They'd prefer to have no more than one day's difference.  If they'd put an AFC game in the Saturday night spot, there would be a possibility that you'd have the Saturday winner playing the Monday winner, one on eight days' rest, the other on six days' rest.  The only way to avoid that potential scenario was putting an NFC game on Saturday night.  (The Texans-Steelers winner has to play on Sunday in the Divisional round.)

So, taking all of those things into consideration left us with a pretty straightforward schedule.  Steelers-Texans had to be Monday night, so they were left with Bills-Jaguars and Patriots-Chargers for the CBS early slot and the Sunday night slot.  Talk about an easy call!  Not only is Bills-Jaguars the less appealing game (and, thus, the logical option for the only 1:00 game of the playoffs), the Chargers play on the West Coast, so it just made sense to not have them play at 10 am local time.  There's the whole Herbert vs. Maye on Sunday night thing, too.  I'm sure NBC probably wanted Packers-Bears, but Patriots-Chargers isn't a bad alternative.

When they expanded the playoffs and set it up with the Sunday night wild card game on NBC and the Monday night wild card game on ESPN, it just made sense.  Just extend both networks' regular timeslot an extra week keeps up the continuity of what fans are used to all season.  It was a three-year deal that expires after this season, but ESPN wants to extend it and keep the Monday night wild card game.  Which, again, just makes too much sense.  Especially with ESPN's first Super Bowl coming up next season.

Speaking of the Super Bowl, I have no idea who's gonna be there!  These playoffs are so incredibly wide open in both conferences.  It'll certainly be difficult for all of the AFC teams to have to go thru Denver, but the Broncos are certainly beatable.  Same with the Seahawks.  Especially since they could potentially play a division rival next week (and I still think the Rams are the best team).  But there's also a very real possibility that they both make it and we see a rematch of Super Bowl XLVIII (although, should that happen, hopefully this one's more competitive).

We don't have to worry about the Broncos and Seahawks until next week, though.  They both earned a bye, and they both need it.  Those were tough, physical games last week.  They'll be watching with the rest of us as the other 12 playoff teams duke it out on Wild Card Weekend.

Rams (12-5) at Panthers (8-9): Rams-Carolina backed into the playoffs, but it doesn't matter how you get there as long as you do.  Of course, the sub-.500 record has them as heavy underdogs against a Rams team that they've already beaten in Charlotte this season.  That alone should give the Panthers confidence heading into their first playoff game in eight years.  However, the Rams are still the better team and going on the road shouldn't faze them.  Especially since they're probably the one wild card team most capable of winning three road games enroute to the Super Bowl.

Packers (9-7-1) at Bears (12-5): Chicago-They've played two great ones already this season.  Now it's time for Round 3, the first playoff meeting between the NFL's oldest rivals since the 2010 NFC Championship Game.  The Packers won that game at Soldier Field and went on to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay is favored in this one, but I'm not entirely sure why.  It was just three weeks ago that the absolutely crazy finish between these two changed the trajectory of the NFC North race.  The Packers went from potentially being the 2-seed to locked into the seven.  And a visit to their archrivals.  The Bears have managed so many fourth-quarter comebacks this season that would it surprise anyone if they have another one?

Bills (12-5) at Jaguars (13-4): Jacksonville-These two have met in the wild card round twice before.  The Jaguars have won both, including their matchup eight years ago.  Buffalo, of course, is the only AFC team with any real recent playoff experience, which has to be an advantage.  Although, it must be weird for the Bills to know they don't have to worry about the Chiefs or the Ravens!  They do need to worry about Jacksonville, though.  I think a lot of people (myself included) have underestimated the Jaguars all year.  This team is good.  They wouldn't have finished with the fourth-best record in the league if they weren't.  And they'll show everyone how good they are by improving to 3-0 all-time against the Bills in the playoffs.

49ers (12-5) at Eagles (11-6): Philadelphia-After going up and down the field at will against the Bears, the 49ers couldn't move the ball at all against the Seahawks.  And it cost them the chance to spend the entire postseason at home.  Which, frankly, they needed (especially the rest that came with the bye).  Especially since now they have to go on the road to meet the defending champions.  Yes, the 49ers have the better record.  And, yes, the Eagles also lost last week (when they had a chance to move up to the 2-seed).  I'm not sure it'll matter.

Chargers (11-6) at Patriots (14-3): New England-On Sunday night, it should be a fun one.  The Chargers come in on a two-game losing streak, but they didn't care at all last week, so that one doesn't really count.  What they have to worry about is their recent playoff history.  Last year, they got blown out in Houston.  Their last playoff appearance before that, they allowed that massive Jaguars comeback and lost.  Can they overcome those playoff demons?  More importantly, can they stop Drake Maye and a Patriots offense that's clicking?  New England enters the postseason on a three-game winning streak during which they've scored 108 points.  They should put up plenty against the Chargers, too.

Texans (12-5) at Steelers (10-7): Pittsburgh-Instead of opening Wild Card Weekend, the Texans will close it.  This is also the first time Houston has ever qualified for the playoffs as a wild card team.  And we've seen how formidable their defense is.  Which is why the Texans are favored.  However, after that crazy finish on Sunday night that got them into the postseason, it would be stupid to count the Steelers out.  In fact, I think Pittsburgh will find a way to get it done and earn its first playoff win since the 2016 season.

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 171-100-1