NFL Picks, Conference Championships

We're down to four possible Super Bowl matchups, three of which have happened before.  The only one that hasn't is Rams-Broncos, which, if we're being honest, is probably the most unlikely of the four.  That's not to say it won't be a Rams-Broncos Super Bowl.  It would just be a surprise.  Meanwhile, if we get Rams-Patriots, it would be the third time, tying Cowboys-Steelers as the most frequent Super Bowl matchup.

Those two Rams-Patriots Super Bowls were both significant.  They were the first and last of the six wins during the Bradicheck Era.  One was incredibly exciting and was decided on a last-second field goal.  The other was incredibly boring, the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in history, and the Rams became just the second team ever not to score a touchdown.

Super Bowl LIII also started a crazy run that has a chance to continue this year.  If the Rams win, this will be the eighth consecutive Super Bowl to feature either them or the Chiefs...yet they've never played each other!  Kansas City went to five out of six, with the Rams going the year before, the year in between and, potentially, the year after.  They're doing their own little Brady-Manning alternating thing.

Seattle faced both Manning and Brady back-to-back, so it's funny that if they go back, they'll get either the Broncos or Patriots again.  That Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl at MetLife Stadium was not a good game by any stretch!  It was a 43-8 blowout!  Instead of going back-to-back, they decided to throw on 1st-and-goal instead of handing off to Marshawn Lynch, allowing the Patriots to make the game-sealing interception.  That, of course, was 11 years ago.   But do you think anyone in Seattle has forgotten it?

Two other fun facts before I move on to talking about the actual games, one in each conference.  For Patriots-Broncos, it's this, which really is fascinating: Including this season, they've made 20 Super Bowl appearances.  They've literally represented the AFC in 1/3 of all Super Bowls!  (And they're actually tied for the most Super Bowl losses with five apiece.)  And they made a combined one appearance between Super Bowls I-XIX.  So, in the last 41 years, they've been the AFC representative in nearly half of all Super Bowls!

In the NFC, it's how this is the worst-case scenario NFC Championship Game for 49ers fans.  The two teams they hate the most are the Rams and the Seahawks (well, I guess they hate the Cowboys, too).  One of them is guaranteed to play in the Super Bowl on San Francisco's home field.  And one of them is guaranteed to continue a trend where eight of the last 14 NFC champions have come out of the NFC West (with the Eagles accounting for three of the other six).

Patriots (16-3) at Broncos (15-3): New England-Denver doesn't have a quarterback.  Unfortunately, that will be the storyline that dominates the AFC Championship Game. Maybe Jarrett Stidham can pull a Jeff Hostetler and lead Denver to the title, but Bo Nix's injury can't be overlooked.  The Broncos are a completely different team without him, which is why it'll be an uphill battle.

For the Broncos to win, they'll need to rely on that outstanding defense.  They came up with the big plays against the Bills (especially on the catch/interception in overtime that was correctly ruled an interception).  Buffalo also scored 30 points, though, so the offense will need to keep up with Drake Maye and Co.  And I'm not entirely sure they'll be able to do that with Stidham instead of Nix.  

Not enough people are talking about the New England defense, either.  Maye and the offense get all the credit, but that defense has been lockdown all postseason.  They've allowed a grand total of one touchdown in two playoff games.  Against Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud.  This is a Broncos offense without its starting quarterback.  So, you'd have to figure Denver will have just as much trouble scoring against the Patriots as the Chargers and Texans did.  Which is why New England goes into this game as the favorite.

The Broncos are at home and has never lost an AFC Championship in Denver.  They're also undefeated in AFC Championship Games against the Patriots.  Sadly, both of those streaks may come to an end.  If Bo Nix was playing, it'd be a completely different story, although New England might've been favored anyway.  Without him, the Broncos' chances aren't great.  Which is why Mike Vrabel takes the Patriots to their first post-Bradicheck Super Bowl.

Rams (14-5) at Seahawks (15-3): Rams-These two were responsible for two of the best games all season.  In the second one, on a fateful Thursday night, Mike MacDonald decided to go for two in overtime, completely flipping not just the division, but the entire NFC playoff picture.  That decision paved the way for the Seahawks to get the No. 1 seed and, more importantly, home field advantage in the NFC Championship Game.

And let's not forget about that Seattle defense.  In the two games against San Francisco, they allowed a grand total of nine points.  The 49ers never had a chance last week.  That's because the Seahawks never gave them one.  So, there's no reason to think they'll deviate from their recipe for success.  Especially when you consider the fact that the offense clicked just as much as the defense last week.  And wouldn't it be something to see Sam Darnold start a Super Bowl?!

Still, I've been saying for most of the season that I think the Rams are the best team.  Nothing that's happened in the playoffs has done anything to change that opinion.  As a wild card, they had to go on the road twice.  They won both.  In very different ways.  Now they go on the road again, but to play a very familiar opponent who they've already beaten this season.  The Seahawks haven't lost since then, but they know they've got a fight on their hands.

Whoever wins this game is gonna earn it and will likely be the favorites in the Super Bowl.  I keep coming back to the idea that the Rams are the best team, though.  Ultimately, that'll be what makes the difference.  Of the six wild card teams, they were the only one capable of winning three road games to get to the Super Bowl.  Two down.  One to go.

Last Week: 4-0
Playoffs: 7-3
Overall: 178-103-1