NFL Picks, Week 11

Things are starting to become clearer in the NFL, but, at the same time, the playoff picture is murkier than ever.  Some teams have started separating themselves, but, for the most part, we've got divisions that are tightly bunched with playoff positions changing each week.  It'll only get crazier with so many division games backloaded, too.  And with certain teams that currently aren't in playoff spots lurking.  So, expect a lot to happen the rest of the way.

Thursday Night: New England (Win)

Commanders (3-7) vs. Dolphins (3-7): Washington-The curtain falls on the International Series with the NFL's first-ever game in Madrid.  This looked like a much better matchup before the season than it turned out to be.  Miami shockingly took it to the Bills last week, while Washington has lost five straight and is still without Jayden Daniels.  None of those games have been particularly close.  But those opponents have been a much higher caliber than the Dolphins.  That's why I'm taking the Commanders to end their skid.

Panthers (5-5) at Falcons (3-6): Carolina-Atlanta is right up there on the list of most disappointing teams in the league this season.  People, myself included, figured the Falcons would challenge Tampa Bay for the division title.  Instead, they're 3-6, and they didn't even get a bye following their long trip back from Germany.  They've been far too inconsistent to think the team that beat the Bills will show up on a regular basis.  The Panthers, meanwhile, can find themselves just a half-game out of first place if things fall their way this week.

Buccaneers (6-3) at Bills (6-3): Buffalo-Tampa Bay wasn't given the easiest schedule coming out of its bye.  The Bucs lost to New England last week.  Now they've got Buffalo.  And next week, the Rams.  They could easily lose all three, so it's a good thing they were able to beef up early.  The Bills laid an egg last week in Miami, which really put them in a bad spot since the Patriots don't stop winning.  New England already won this week, so a loss will put them 2.5 games back.  Not insurmountable, but not where they want to be either.  Being a game and a half out is much more manageable.

Texans (4-5) at Titans (1-8): Houston-During their bye week, the Titans saw every other one-win team come away with a victory.  So, they're back in the driver's seat for the No. 1 pick.  That's obviously a fluid situation that might change several times over the rest of the season, but the point remains.  Tennessee's not a good team.  And, to think, this team fired Mike Vrabel, only to see him become a Coach of the Year candidates while making the Patriots "the Patriots" again.  Needless to say, his coaching might not have been the problem.

Bears (6-3) at Vikings (4-5): Chicago-Chicago is a playoff team right now.  It sounds crazy, I know, but the Bears are 6-3 and could be in first place at the end of Week 11.  That could be 7-2 if not for one quarter of their season opener, which was the only good quarter the Vikings played in their first two games.  The Bears are a much different team in mid-November than they were in early September, though.  Last week's comeback against the Giants is proof of that.  Count this team out at your own peril.

Packers (5-3-1) at Giants (2-8): Green Bay-One little loss can have so much impact.  Especially in a tight division race.  The Packers went from first place in the NFC North to third after falling to the Eagles on Monday night.  The good news is this week, they're playing a Giants team that finally got fed up with the blown double-digit leads and fired Brian Daboll.  It's not like that'll make much of a difference against the Packers, though.  (Although, their two wins this season were at home against the Chargers and Eagles, so who knows?)

Bengals (3-6) at Steelers (5-4): Pittsburgh-When these two met in Cincinnati on a Thursday night, the Bengals pulled the upset (while wearing those ridiculous white helmets).  That loss dropped the Steelers to 4-2 and suddenly they were no longer running away with the division.  They're still in front, but it's no longer comfortable.  A win in the rematch can go a long way towards changing that and set Pittsburgh up for the stretch run.

Chargers (7-3) at Jaguars (5-4): Chargers-Don't sleep on either of these teams.  Jacksonville has beaten both San Francisco and Kansas City on the road this season, while the Chargers have really been impressive.  Sure, two of their losses are bad, but they always show up and play well against good opponents (as evidence by their 3-0 division record).  And they just took it to the Steelers last week.  I'm not saying this one will be easy, but I do expect them to go into their bye at 8-3.

Seahawks (7-2) at Rams (7-2): Rams-As this little NFC West round robin concludes, we'll actually have a division leader with sole possession of first place.  Not only that, the Seahawks-Rams winner will likely hold the NFC's No. 1 seed at the end of the week.  Personally, I think the Rams are the best team in the division, if not the entire NFC.  They showed it with an absolutely dominant performance in San Francisco, and they'll show it again at home against Seattle.

49ers (6-4) at Cardinals (3-6): San Francisco-Heading into the season, some people thought Arizona might make the NFC West a four-way race.  That obviously hasn't been the case, with the Cardinals sitting at just 3-6.  One of the reasons for that is an 0-3 division record.  When these two met in San Francisco, it was a one-point game.  I wouldn't be surprised if it's close again.  I'd expect the final result to be the same, though.

Ravens (4-5) at Browns (2-7): Baltimore-For weeks, people have been saying to look out for Baltimore.  The Ravens got off to a terrible start and were left for dead.  Then Lamar Jackson came back and their schedule got easier.  Now, we're staring at Baltimore getting back to .500 and indeed becoming that opponent no one wants to face down the stretch.

Chiefs (5-4) at Broncos (8-2): Kansas City-If the playoffs started today, the Chiefs wouldn't be in them.  Yet everyone knows Kansas City is a dangerous opponent.  First-place Denver can really make a statement here while also opening up a 3.5-game lead on the Chiefs.  So, while this isn't necessarily a must-win, it's a very important game for Kansas City.  The Chiefs won't let go of their stranglehold on the AFC West that easily.

Lions (6-3) at Eagles (7-2): Philadelphia-This was the NFC Championship Game everyone wanted and expected last season, but the Commanders had to go and ruin it!  Now we finally get that Lions-Eagles matchup in one of the most-anticipated Sunday night games of the season.  It's an important one, too.  Detroit's finally in first place, but two of the Lions' three losses were on the road against top teams (Green Bay & Kansas City).  Expect a third road loss to a good team here.

Cowboys (3-5-1) at Raiders (2-7): Dallas-Cowboys-Raiders is always a matchup that will draw a lot of eyeballs no matter how good either team is.  Which is what makes this a fun Monday night game.  Are they the two best teams in the NFL?  Definitely not.  But there's still potential for an entertaining game here.  It's also one that Dallas absolutely cannot lose.  The Cowboys need to start consistently collecting wins if they want to be taken seriously as a playoff contender.

GREY CUP: Roughriders (12-6) vs. Alouettes (10-8): Saskatchewan-It's Grey Cup Sunday!  So, following my tradition, I'll give my two cents (guess I have to start collecting pennies) about the CFL's championship game.  Saskatchewan has been the dominant team in the league all year and is playing in its first Grey Cup game since 2013.  Montreal was a surprise Grey Cup champion two years ago and won the East Final on the road in Hamilton.  I just can't pick against the Roughriders, though.  The game's being played in Winnipeg, which means it'll be a sea of green, giving them a huge home-away-from-home advantage.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 94-55-1