NFL Picks, Week 10

As we start the second half of the NFL season, the playoff picture has started to come into focus.  Has it, though?  Because it's still jumbled at the top and there are a lot of surprise teams still in there.  The division races will sort themselves out as everybody plays each other (the division games really seem to be backloaded this year), but I'm really curious to see which of those surprise contenders hang around and who falls back to the pack as they start playing tougher opponents.  Maybe we'll start to get a clue about both things this week.

Thursday Night: Denver (Win)

Falcons (3-5) vs Colts (7-2): Indianapolis-After having an incredibly weak strength of schedule to start the season, the Colts' second half schedule is much tougher.  We already saw them lose to the Steelers last week, and that was the start of a span where they play at home once in seven weeks.  This is technically a "home" game, but it's in Berlin, so it's actually the furthest trip of them all.  Their opponent is a Falcons team that still confuses the crap out of me.  Could Atlanta actually show up and play well?  Sure.  Am I banking on it?  No.

Giants (2-7) at Bears (5-3): Chicago-Is this that one year in every five where the Bears are actually good?  They went into Cincinnati last week and won the game of the year so far (sorry, Cowboys-Packers, you were a tie!).  And they currently find themselves tied with Detroit for the last wild card spot.  They've got four games in their gauntlet of a division left, as well as matchups with Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and San Francisco.  Which means beating the Giants at home is an absolute necessity.

Bills (6-2) at Dolphins (2-7): Buffalo-The Bills continued their regular season dominance of the Chiefs last week, beating Kansas City for the fifth consecutive time in the regular season.  That will only matter, of course, if they take care of business against the Dolphins.  Miami has pledged that Mike McDaniel will keep his job at least through the end of the season, but he's probably already getting the boxes ready to start cleaning out his office during Week 18.  They've already started cleaning house, so I think he knows that on Monday, January 5, he'll need to call the movers.

Ravens (3-5) at Vikings (4-4): Minnesota-Lamar Jackson's return has people feeling high about the Ravens again.  Suddenly Baltimore has won two straight with an offense that looks completely different.  Are they a team to watch in the second half of the season?  Are the Vikings?  Don't count out J.J. McCarthy and Co.  Especially after that win in Detroit last week.

Browns (2-6) at Jets (1-7): Jets-This was the game I had circled on the calendar as the Jets' potential first win.  Well, they already beat Cincinnati, so it won't be.  It'll be their second instead.  This is one of the few games this season where it's reasonable to think that.  Although, they also just traded the only players on the team who are any good, so who knows what type of team they are now?  If they don't win this one, though, the next chance for a win might not come until they play Miami in early December.

Patriots (7-2) at Buccaneers (6-2): Tampa Bay-Who would've thought that Patriots-Bucs would be one of the better matchups this week?!  Yet, here we are, with both teams entering the Brady Bowl leading their divisions.  The Patriots, especially, are on a roll.  They've won six straight.  Although, they barely survived against Atlanta last week.  Heading to Tampa against a rested Bucs team coming off its bye is a much different challenge.  I think the winning streak ends here.

Saints (1-8) at Panthers (5-4): Carolina-Carolina got shellacked by Buffalo, then went into Lambeau Field and upset the Packers.  That's a big win not just for the momentum.  They've struggled on the road this season, so it sent a message to look out for the Panthers.  Outside of the Bills game, they've been excellent at home.  There's no reason to think that won't continue against the Saints (who can't lose next week since it's their bye).

Jaguars (5-3) at Texans (3-5): Jacksonville-Jacksonville's kicker sets an NFL record for the longest field goal and no one sees it because it's a FOX regional game in the late window with Chris Myers on the call.  He didn't put any excitement into it whatsoever and didn't even mention that it was a record.  (And the game still went to overtime, so imagine if he hadn't hit it!)  So is life in the AFC South.  Maybe we should start paying attention to the Jaguars, though, they have road wins in Kansas City and San Francisco and would be a playoff team if the season ended today.  They should get to 6-3 here.

Cardinals (3-5) at Seahawks (6-2): Seattle-Can the Seahawks just wear their throwbacks all the time?  Sure, there's a nostalgia factor at play here.  They're just so pretty, though.  Which is something that I can definitely appreciate with so many terrible alternate uniforms being worn.  Anyway, they're doing things backwards this season.  They're undefeated on the road, while both of their losses have come at home, where they're usually dominant.  They'll have to straighten that out as they start this little two-week NFC West round robin by hosting Arizona.  A win and a 49ers win puts the Seahawks in sole possession of first place.

Rams (6-2) at 49ers (6-3): San Francisco-When these two met on a Thursday night in Week 5, San Francisco won in overtime.  The 49ers are actually undefeated in the division and 3-3 against everyone else.  So, this game actually feels bigger for the Rams, who I think are the best team in the NFC West.  This is the beginning of a tough stretch for them, too.  They've got Seattle and Tampa Bay coming up after this.  So, their season could get away from them really quickly if they don't get a win here.

Lions (5-3) at Commanders (3-6): Detroit-A rematch of last season's playoff matchup where the Commanders went into Detroit and shocked the Lions.  They're in a much different state midway through the 2025 campaign, though.  Washington is 3-6 and just lost Chase Daniels to that gruesome injury against Seattle.  I don't see things going much better against Detroit than they did last week.  Not against a Lions team that has bounced back nicely from each of its losses this season.

Steelers (5-3) at Chargers (6-3): Chargers-Last week's Sunday night game was a clunker of a matchup and a clunker of a game.  This week they make up for it with Steelers-Chargers.  Denver already won, so the Chargers are in danger of falling two games behind the Broncos with a loss.  The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off a big win over Indianapolis and can really make a statement if they go into SoFi and get another.  This is a game you feel like the Chargers have to win if they want to be considered serious contenders.

Eagles (6-2) at Packers (5-2-1): Green Bay-Was last week a trap game for the Packers?  I guess we'll find out on Monday night when they face the Eagles in an important game for playoff positioning.  Philadelphia's in good shape in the NFC East.  Green Bay's suddenly got a race in the NFC North, though.  The Packers are just a half-game ahead of the Lions and Bears (although, it should be noted, they have five division games left).  I just hope we actually see their regular uniforms this week after two straight games wearing throwbacks (and not good throwbacks like Philadelphia's).

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 87-48-1