Joe's 2025 Bracket (Men)

The record for NCAA Tournament bids by a single conference was 11 by the Big East in 2011.  That record is set to be broken this year.  The SEC has been the best conference in the country all season, and 12 SEC teams are virtual locks.  I think it's likely that they'll get at least one more, although I'd even say that I can see 14 SEC teams making the field.  Because you can't tell me that Texas isn't one of the better bubble teams in contention for those last at-large bids.

I was actually having a debate with someone about Texas today.  His argument that a team that goes 6-12 in conference play doesn't belong in the field.  I countered with "Do you know how good the SEC is?!"  Which is ironic, since I always used to be that person who argued against Power 4 teams getting credit for playing conference games.  In this case, though, it's the eye test.  Texas passes the eye test for me.  Especially compared to teams like Xavier, Ohio State and North Carolina.

So, I would imagine that the committee will have quite a discussion about Texas and those other bubble teams.  Who's in, who's out, who gets sent to Dayton, and who doesn't?  It's a vastly different task than the one the Division III selection committee has.  Starting this season, the D3 committee doesn't actually select the teams.  They just seed and pair them.  The at-large selections come straight from a ranking list.  The top 21 that didn't win their conference tournament (there are 43 D3 conferences) on that list get the at-large bids.  No conversation or debate about it.  Can you even imagine if they ever tried to do that in D1?!

Although, the SEC being so good has probably made the committee's job that much more challenging.  So many SEC teams will be highly seeded that they'll have very little flexibility where to put them.  Auburn and whoever wins the SEC Tournament figure to both get 1-seeds, while the Florida/Tennessee loser and Alabama both figure to be No. 2's (with Kentucky probably looking at a 3).

While three of the No. 1 seeds seem locked up for Auburn, Duke and Houston, I do wonder who'll be No. 1 overall.  Personally, I think it should be Duke.  They aren't just the best team with the best player in the country, they won the ACC Tournament without Cooper Flagg.  And Houston won the Big 12 Tournament.  Auburn, meanwhile, not only didn't win the SEC Tournament, but has lost three of its last four.  Not exactly heading into March Madness with a ton of momentum.

Still, though, I think they'll end up giving Auburn the No. 1 overall seed.  For a couple reasons.  The first is that they won the outright regular season title in the best league.  The other is that, even with their recent skid, the committee will probably be impressed by Auburn's overall body of work.  (Now, I happen to think Auburn is one of the most overrated teams in the country, but I'm not on the committee.  Nor do I have any say.)

Whoever gets that No. 1 overall seed also matters because of where the Regionals are being held.  Auburn obviously wants to be in Atlanta.  But so does Duke.  Only one will get to play there, though.  And, while it's easy enough to just send Duke to Newark instead, the second-closest Regional to Auburn is Indianapolis, which is the only one that's relatively close to Houston.  So, if Auburn ends up going to Indianapolis instead, Houston gets stuck going one direction or the other to Newark or San Francisco. 

For the sake of making everything easier logistically, sending Auburn to Atlanta, Duke to Newark and Houston to Indianapolis works best.  And there would be little argument about getting that top overall seed, either.  Although, the one thing that would set up is the potential all-SEC Final Four matchup between Auburn and the No. 4 overall seed (the Florida/Tennessee winner).

Florida-Tennessee is among the handful of conference championship games still to be played on Sunday.  Bubble teams won't have to stress out watching those games, either, since there aren't any potential bid stealers.  Memphis is the only team playing that I can even see there being any sort at-large discussion about should they not win.  The Atlantic 10 is a one-bid league this year, so it's winner in/loser out there.

Whether it's 12 or 13 (or 14), the SEC will set a record for most NCAA bids by a conference this season.  An effect of the super-sized leagues.  And a down year in the ACC, which only gets three.  As for the other major conferences, I've got the Big Ten with nine total bids, the Big 12 with eight, and the Big East with four.  The Mountain West gets four total, and the last at-large bid goes to Saint Mary's.

SOUTH (Atlanta)
Lexington: 1-Auburn (1) vs. 16-Wofford/Saint Francis, 8-Baylor vs. 9-New Mexico
Seattle: 5-Clemson vs. 12-Colorado State, 4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Lipscomb
Milwaukee: 6-Kansas vs. 11-UC San Diego, 3-Kentucky vs. 14-McNeese
Providence: 7-Illinois vs. 10-Arkansas, 2-St. John's vs. 15-Norfolk State

WEST (San Francisco)
Raleigh: 1-Florida (4) vs. 16-American, 8-Marquette vs. 9-Memphis
Seattle: 5-Louisville vs. 12-Indiana/Texas, 4-Arizona vs. 13-High Point
Denver: 6-UCLA vs. 11-Oklahoma, 3-Texas Tech vs. 14-Montana
Cleveland: 7-Missouri vs. 10-Utah State, 2-Michigan State vs. 15-SIU Edwardsville

EAST (Newark)
Raleigh: 1-Duke (2) vs. 16-Mount St. Mary's/Jackson State, 8-Saint Mary's vs. 9-Mississippi State
Denver: 5-Purdue vs. 12-Grand Canyon, 4-Iowa State vs. 13-Yale
Providence: 6-BYU vs. 11-San Diego State/Vanderbilt, 3-Maryland vs. 14-UNC Wilmington
Lexington: 7-Creighton vs. 10-VCU, 2-Alabama vs. 15-Omaha

MIDWEST (Indianapolis)
Wichita: 1-Houston (3) vs. 16-Bryant, 8-Connecticut vs. 9-Georgia
Wichita: 5-Oregon vs. 12-Liberty, 4-Texas A&M vs. 13-Akron
Milwaukee: 6-Mississippi vs. 11-Drake, 3-Michigan vs. 14-Troy
Cleveland: 7-Gonzaga vs. 10-West Virginia, 2-Tennessee vs. 15-Robert Morris