Baseball 2025 (AL Central)

Three teams from the AL Central made the playoffs last season.  Not only that, they all won a playoff series.  So, playing 13 games each against the White Sox clearly wasn't the only reason the Royals and Tigers reached the postseason.  They've both got incredibly young teams, too, so there's plenty of reason for them to be optimistic about a return.  But, they could just as easily come crashing back to Earth.

That's the thing about the AL Central.  There's no standout team, but, outside of the White Sox, none of them are truly bad, either.  On paper, Cleveland is the best team and should win the division.  But that's by no means a lock.  Not when they've got question marks on the pitching staff.  And the Twins finished fourth last year, but would it surprise anyone if they end up putting it together and won the division?

I'm also curious to see how Kansas City and Detroit follow up their 2024 success.  Will it be like Seattle, where it was just a one-year thing?  Or will it be like Baltimore, where it was the start of something lasting?  With the Royals especially, there's no reason to think it can't be lasting.  Although, last year they both needed only 86 wins to make the playoffs.  This season will likely require more, and I'm not sure I see either of those teams winning the 89-90 they'll need to get in.

Part of the reason for that is simply because I don't think it's possible for the White Sox to be anywhere near as bad as their historically terrible 2024 season.  The White Sox set a Major League record with 121 losses last year.  While they won't be good by any means, they'll be better.  And, because the White Sox should win more games, that probably means more losses for everybody else.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the White Sox end up having a say in who wins the AL Central.  Because they're gonna play well against somebody.

1. Cleveland Guardians: With Cleveland, it almost always comes down to pitching.  When they get it, they're good.  When they don't, they're bad.  I hate to make it sound so simple, but with the Guardians, it really is.  And, let's not forget, they've got one of the best bullpens in the game, headlined by All*Star closer Emmanuel Clase.  And they've got the best combination of pitching and hitting in the AL Central.  Which is why they have to be considered the favorites to repeat as division champs.

This is even after completely remaking their lineup.  They traded Josh Naylor to Arizona, with Carlos Santana returning for another tour of duty.  Andres Gimenez was also traded.  He's now in Toronto.  Yet, the Guardians still have enough pieces around Jose Ramirez that he won't be expected to do everything.  And this team knows as well as anybody that they don't need to have the best team in the American League.  They just need to have the best team in the division and be good enough to compete against the good teams in the playoffs.  The Guardians aren't as good as last year, but they're still the best team in the division.
Projected Lineup: Steven Kwan-LF, Carlos Santana-1B, Jose Ramirez-3B, Jhonkensy Noel-RF, Lane Thomas-CF, Kyle Manzardo-DH, Austin Hedges-C, Gabriel Arias-2B, Brayan Rocchio-SS
Projected Rotation: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Luis Ortiz, Ben Lively, Logan Allen
Closer: Emmanuel Clase
Projected Record: 89-73

2. Detroit Tigers: Last season, the Tigers made the playoffs with a pitching staff that consisted of Tarik Skubal and not much else.  Skubal was sensational and a deserving Cy Young winner, but there's no possible way they'll be able to do that again.  What's even crazier about what they did last season was how they only got hot and on that roll that carried them into the playoffs after they traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers.  Flaherty won a ring in LA, then came back as a free agent to give Detroit a formidable 1-2 punch with Skubal.

They also brought in a big-name free-agent position player--Gleyber Torres.  I'm very curious to see how that relationship works out.  On the Yankees, he didn't have to be The Man.  In Detroit, he does.  How will that impact his production?  (We saw what happened when they signed Javy Baez to that big contract.)  If he proves he can anchor a lineup and the Tigers' young core continues building on last year's success, they'll be in good shape.  A lot of things went right for the Tigers last year, though, especially at the end of the season.  How realistic is it to expect that to happen again?
Projected Lineup: Wenceel Perez-CF, Gleyber Torres-2B, Riley Greene-LF, Spencer Torkelson-DH, Colt Keith-1B, Kerry Carpenter-RF, Zach McKinstry-3B, Javier Baez-SS, Jake Rogers-C
Projected Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe
Closer: Andrew Chafin
Projected Record: 84-78

3. Kansas City Royals: Don't look now, but the Kansas City Royals could very well be on the verge of doing what they did a decade ago again.  Last year, the Royals made the playoffs for the first time since their 2015 World Series championship season, and they've made sure Bobby Witt Jr. isn't going anywhere.  They aren't just building around their budding superstar, either, they're putting quality pieces around him.  That included making a trade with Cincinnati for Jonathan India, giving them both a second baseman and a leadoff hitter.  And if Vinnie Pasquantino stays healthy all season, look out!  That guy can mash a baseball!

The biggest key to their success last season, though, was that starting rotation.  Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo both made the All*Star team.  They're really what made the Royals go.  Kansas City doesn't need them to pitch at the same level.  They do need them to be close to it, though.  That's the biggest question mark heading into this season.  The lineup should be solid.  If they get the pitching to back it up, a return to the playoffs is certainly possible.  A division title isn't even out of the question.  They won't take anybody by surprise this year, though.  That's a whole different challenge.  How will they handle actually having expectations?
Projected Lineup: Jonathan India-2B, Bobby Witt Jr.-SS, Vinnie Pasquantino-1B, Salvador Perez-C, Mark Canha-DH, Hunter Renfroe-RF, Maikel Garcia-3B, Kyle Isbel-CF, MJ Melendez-LF
Projected Rotation: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, Michael Lorenzen
Closer: Carlos Estevez
Projected Record: 82-80

4. Minnesota Twins: Whenever you think the Twins will be good, they miss the playoffs.  Whenever you think they won't, they end up winning the division.  Take last season.  Minnesota went in as the prohibitive favorites, finished fourth, and watched three other AL Central teams make the playoffs instead.  Heading into this year, it would be foolish to expect them to place any higher than fourth again.  Which probably means they'll win 90 games.  But, then again, maybe not.

Honestly, I can't see the Twins finishing above any of those three playoff teams from last season.  Their pitching isn't as good as the three teams above them, and neither is their lineup.  Byron Buxton is an electric player when healthy, but he almost never is.  If, somehow, they can manage to keep him in the lineup all season, that would be a start.  Even with a healthy Buxton, though, I don't think they have enough to keep pace with Cleveland.  Kansas City and Detroit, maybe.  But not all three.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Willi Castro-3B, Carlos Correa-SS, Ty France-1B, Jose Miranda-DH, Trevor Larnach-LF, Ryan Jeffers-C, Matt Wallner-RF, Edouard Julien-2B
Projected Rotation: Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
Closer: Jhoan Duran
Projected Record: 77-85

5. Chicago White Sox: Nobody thought the White Sox would be any good last season.  And boy, they were not!  So, in a way, they lived up to expectations (as low as they might've been).  What I don't think anyone expected, though, was for them to be THAT bad!  There is one benefit to a lost season like that, though.  Things can't get much worse!  And, based on that alone, this season will almost certainly have to be better.  That doesn't mean the White Sox will be any good.  They're still one of the worst teams in the Majors.  I'm just saying don't expect another Major League record for losses.

As crazy as it sounds, I'm even willing to go out on a limb and say the White Sox won't even have the worst record in Baseball.  That honor, I'd expect, will go to the Angels.  The White Sox have enough talent there to think they'll bounce back.  In the lineup at least.  Their pitching is still horrible.  In fact, it's even worse now that Garret Crochet has changed his Sox.  They'll still lose 100.  They won't lose 120.
Projected Lineup: Andrew Benintendi-LF, Luis Robert Jr.-CF, Andrew Vaughn-1B, Bryan Ramos-DH, Korey Lee-C, Manuel Vargas-3B, Mike Tauchman-RF, Josh Rojas-2B, Lenyn Sosa-SS
Projected Rotation: Sean Burke, Davis Martin, Martin Perez, Shane Smith, Mike Clevinger
Closer: Justin Anderson
Projected Record: 55-107