An Important IOC Election

Until recently, the year after an Olympics meant choosing the host city for the Games seven years later.  That timeframe has been completely revamped as a result of the new bid process that was instituted by IOC President Thomas Bach.  The upcoming Summer Olympics in LA and Brisbane were awarded more than a decade in advance, while we didn't find out the 2030 Winter Games will be in the French Alps until just before the Paris Games, only five and a half years ahead of time.

Voting for host cities has become nothing more than a formality, and many IOC members don't like how they've had that perk essentially taken away from them.  They haven't liked a lot of things about Bach's presidency, in fact.  That doesn't mean Bach's presidency hasn't been transformative because it absolutely has.  He's done a lot of good for the Olympic Movement and some of his reforms will definitely be lasting.

But, after 12 years, it's time for a change.  Which makes the upcoming IOC presidential election one of the most significant in history.  Bach is term-limited and IOC members will be choosing his successor later this month.  Each candidate has a very specific vision for the future of the Olympic Movement.  It's up to the IOC members to decide whose vision is the right one.

And, make no mistake, there will be plenty of issues that the incoming IOC president will immediately have to deal with.  First and foremost is what to do about Russia and Belarus.  It's not just a question of how you bring them back into the fold.  It's also a question of when.  And with the Milan Cortina Games less than a year away, the clock is ticking if they're going to participate in 2026.

There's also the question regarding the eligibility of transgender athletes, especially after the attention brought to the issue by the women's boxing tournament in Paris.  Whether to pay medalists prize money or not.  Doping has always been and will always be a problem the IOC must deal with.  There are even different opinions regarding which sports should be on the Olympic program and how host cities are decided (there are more than a few IOC members who want their voice back). 

So, yeah, it's a lot of things that they're deciding.  And, not surprisingly, the candidates themselves don't see eye to eye on every front.  They're seven candidates with seven different plans for the future of the Olympic movement.  Although, even though there are seven candidates, there are really only three contenders.

Sebastian Coe is the odds-on favorite.  He's an Olympic gold medalist who organized the wildly successful London Games.  Since then, he's been the President of World Athletics.  He's shown strong leadership at the helm of the largest Olympic sports federation and has been very forceful in his positions on Russia, doping and awarding prize money (he apologized after ruffling more than a few feathers for unilaterally deciding to pay track & field medalists in Paris).  Coe's age could be a factor against him, though.  He'll turn 70 next year.

If it isn't Coe, it very well may be Kirsty Coventry.  There's never been a female IOC President or an IOC President from Africa.  The seven-time swimming medalist from Zimbabwe would check both of those boxes.  She's been a rising star in the IOC for several years and has a number of things going for her.  Coventry is young, got her start on the IOC Athletes Commission and is now on the IOC's influential Executive Board, as well as Zimbabwe's sports minister.  She seems to be Bach's preferred candidate, so would she change much or keep the status quo?

Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr. is more of a dark horse, but I can easily see him sneaking in if Coe and Coventry split votes (the candidate with the lowest vote total is eliminated with each round of voting).  If his name looks familiar, it should.  Juan Antonio Samaranch Sr. is the most significant and influential President in IOC history, shaping the Olympic movement into the commercial powerhouse it's become during his 22-year tenure.  Samaranch Jr. is currently an IOC Vice President and was on the coordinating committee for three different Games.  And, while not nearly as influential as his father was, he wields a lot of influence in Olympic circles.

Moving on to the longer shots, Morinari Watanabe is currently the president of the International Gymnastics Federation.  He's the first Asian ever to hold that office.  Watanabe has some outrageous ideas, including having a worldwide Olympics with events going on 24 hours a day.  Frankly, that seems a little too out there.

Prince Feisal al Hussein is the brother of Jordan's King Abdullah II.  He's been an IOC member since 2010 and on the Executive Board since 2019.  Prince Feisal is also the head of the Jordan Olympic Committee and on the Olympic Council of Asia's Executive Board.  So, he's obviously got the experience.  The most important feature of his manifesto is that he wants IOC members to have more of a voice in decision-making, starting with the selection of host cities.

The last two candidates are the longest shots.  Frenchman David Lappartient is the president of the International Cycling Union, but has only been an IOC member for two years.  He's done a lot in that time, but it's still only two years.  Which is more than Johan Eliasch, the president of the International Skiing Federation who only became an IOC member in July.  That's simply not enough time to make enough of a mark to be elected leader of the organization and arguably the most powerful person in international sport.

Ultimately, I think this will be a two-horse race between Coe and Coventry.  They're the only Olympic gold medalists among the candidates, which is something both Bach and his predecessor Jacques Rogge were.  It feels like that will become a sort of unofficial requirement moving forward.  At the very least, having been an Olympic athlete will be the bare minimum.  Which is why I think they hold the edge over Samaranch.

Coe is the safer bet.  He's shown who he is and what he can do, and how the Olympic Movement can benefit from his leadership.  Coventry would be a historic selection.  For two reasons.  And she's been being groomed for the role for several years, so, even though she's young, she wouldn't be in over her head at all.  I can honestly see either one winning the election.  But, if I had to make a choice, I'd say they go with Seb Coe and Kirsty Coventry becomes the IOC President-In-Waiting for when Coe's tenure is up.