Jacob deGrom was at the heart of this wins debate last year, when he deservedly won the NL Cy Young despite winning just 10 games for a Mets team that didn't score any runs for him. Well, de Grom won 11 games this year and is a finalist again. So, if he wins again, he'll have won back-to-back Cy Youngs despite posting just 21 combined wins in those two seasons. Justin Verlander had 21 wins this season.
Leave it to Ron Darling, one of the best analysts in all of baseball, to bring up the most logical point in the entire argument. I don't remember what he said exactly, but his basic point was that it all comes down to innings. Guys who throw more innings are going to get more wins (and losses) because they're in the game longer. Thus, they have a greater impact on the game. He also predicted that the overreliance on relievers over the past few years will cycle back around. Because if your best pitchers are your starters, wouldn't you want those guys pitching the most innings? (Darling also stated the obvious fact that wins very much DO matter to pitchers.)
While he wasn't as dominant in 2019, deGrom was still arguably the best pitcher in the National League this season. He led the league in strikeouts and WHIP, was second in ERA, third in innings and fourth in batting average against. But the wins, once again, are the big sticking point. Last year, they gave it to him because of how dominant he was in every other category. And the fact that he was by far the best pitcher in the National League. Will the voters do that again? Especially since he wasn't the dominant pitcher in the NL this season?
That dominant pitcher was the Dodgers' Hyun-Jin Ryu. He hit a little bit of a rut in August, which brought down his overall season numbers. But his other five months were extraordinary. Ryu started the All*Star Game and carried a Dodgers rotation that was hit hard by injuries throughout the first half. His ERA was under 2.00 for a while, and it finished at a league-leading 2.32. Other than a 1.01 WHIP, Ryu didn't have numbers that jump off the page. But he was a model of consistency all season, as the best pitcher on the best team.
Max Scherzer likely couldn't care less if he wins the Cy Young this year. Because he got a prize that was much more valuable. But it speaks to how consistently excellent Max Scherzer is that he missed a good amount of time in the second half and still finished third in the league in strikeouts, fourth in WHIP and sixth in ERA.
And, since Cy Young voting goes five deep, it's worth mentioning some of the other candidates who finished somewhere between fourth and 10th. Like World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg, who made 33 regular season starts and went 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 251 strikeouts in a league-high 209 innings. Or how about Rookie of the Year runner-up Mike Soroka, who emerged as the Braves' ace, going 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA? Then there's the Cardinals' Jack Flaherty, who also went just 11-8, but had a 0.97 WHIP and held opponents to a .192 batting average.
My Ballot: 1. Ryu, 2. deGrom, 3. Strasburg, 4. Scherzer, 5. Soroka
Over in the AL, it's a battle between the Astros' dual aces. There's really very little to separate Justin Verlander's season from Gerrit Cole's, so we might as well look at them together. They were the only two 20-game winners in baseball, going a combined 41-11. Houston won 107 games, and the two of them combined to win nearly 40 percent of them. They also both had 300 strikeouts, went 1-2 in WHIP, and both held their opponents to an average in the .180s.
Verlander gave up a ton of home runs, but they were mainly solo shots. He only gave up 66 runs all season, 36 of which came on homers. And he only gave up 101 hits that weren't homers. Verlander's 0.80 WHIP was the second-best in baseball history, and he threw his third career no-hitter in Toronto. He also recorded his 3,000th career strikeout. That milestone has no bearing on Cy Young, obviously, but puts a nice little bow on Verlander's season. His career renaissance since being traded to Houston really is remarkable.
Cole will likely not be on the Astros next season. But his final year in Houston was pretty special. After starting the season 4-5, the Astros didn't lose one of his starts again until Game 1 of the World Series. He ended the season by going 16-0 over his final 22 starts, and Houston won his final 13 regular season starts. Cole finished with a ridiculous 326 strikeouts (in just 212.1 innings), including 21 double-digit strikeout games.
While it's tight, I think I'd give the slight edge to Cole because of that 16-0 stretch to end the season. Which takes nothing away from what Verlander did this year. In fact, if there's any year where a tie would seem almost fitting, it would be this year. Especially because the two front runners are teammates.
The third-place finisher in the AL Cy Young race is a former Astro--Charlie Morton. Tampa Bay had the reigning Cy Young winner in Blake Snell, but Morton turned out to be the most valuable pitcher on their staff. In a career year where he made 33 starts, Morton went 16-6, struck out 240 and had an ERA of 3.05. On the team that loves its "openers," Morton tossed nearly 200 innings.
Among the other names who likely got a good amount of support is All*Star MVP Shane Bieber of Cleveland. This guy's just a great story. On a staff that included Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco at the start of the season, Bieber emerged as the Indians' ace. He ended up 15-8, was third in the AL in strikeouts, and finished fourth in ERA. Frankly, I'd probably rank Bieber ahead of Morton.
Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox had 19 wins, which can't be ignored. Domingo German's domestic violence suspension put a damper on his great season. As a result, I don't see him getting any Cy Young votes (if any at all). But still, he went 18-4 and carried the Yankees' rotation for the first four months of the season. Special shout out to Lucas Giolito, too. He had the worst ERA in the American League last season. This season, he finished fifth at 3.41. He was also third in opponents' average, fifth in ERA and seventh in strikeouts. It was enough to make him a finalist for Comeback Player of the Year, and it probably got Giolito some Cy Young votes, too.
My Ballot: 1. Cole, 2. Verlander, 3. Bieber, 4. Morton, 5. Giolito
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