The past two Hot Stove seasons have been quite a dud. Two years ago, it took J.D. Martinez three months to sign with the Red Sox, even though everybody knew that was going to happen before Thanksgiving. Then last year was just an embarrassment. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado got their $300 million contracts, but they had to wait until February to get them. They at least signed before the season, which is more than I can say for Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel.
Will we have a third straight offseason where the Hot Stove is Lukewarm at best? And what does it mean for this year's top free agents (of which there are many)? With two front-line starting pitchers setting the market for each other, I think we'll probably be waiting at least until 2020 for the big names to sign. I don't think it'll take nearly as long as last year, though. Simply because there are too many top-tier free agents out there, and teams may not want to wait if there's a guy they want.
We saw the three biggest names who'll be available during the World Series. At least one of them is going to change teams. Gerrit Cole basically said as much when he told a reporter that he was "no longer an Astros employee" after Game 7. I don't think the Nationals will be able to sign both of their guys, though. So we'll see whether they prioritize World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg or NL MVP finalist Anthony Rendon.
Gerrit Cole (Predicted Team: Angels): He's from Southern California. He went to UCLA. The Angels have a new manager (Joe Maddon), the best player in the game (Mike Trout), and a lot of money. They also haven't had a true No. 1 starter since Jered Weaver left. As a result, they're going to throw a lot of that money at Cole. It won't be the "stupid" money the Phillies threw at Harper last offseason, but they'll still give him enough to set the record for richest pitching contract ever. I'll be shocked if he signs anywhere else.
Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Strasburg had to make a decision on whether or not to opt out before the parade! He decided to opt out, which doesn't necessarily mean he's leaving Washington. It could be a similar ploy to the move Aroldis Chapman made where he's trying to just add some years and money to his deal. The Padres spent big on Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado in the last two offseasons, so don't count out them making a push to bring Strasburg, a San Diego native, home. But, when Harper left, the Nationals doubled down on starting pitching and it won them a World Series. They'll do everything they can to keep Max & Stras together, and I think it'll work.
Anthony Rendon (Braves): Whether or not the Nationals have enough to give both Strasburg and Rendon the money they're going to command is the question. I have a feeling they're going to have to choose. If Strasburg does indeed go to San Diego and Rendon hasn't signed yet, that could change their thinking. But I think Rendon comes off the board first. Because there's a division rival that needs a third baseman who'd love to plug his bat into the middle of their lineup for the next six (or more) years.
Yasmani Grandal (Astros): Both of Houston's catchers are free agents. Which is convenient. Because so is Yasmani Grandal. He took risk of signing a one-year deal with the Brewers and testing out the free agent market again. I think it'll pay off after his excellent year in Milwaukee. And he's the type of player Houston loves. A switch-hitting catcher with power. Grandal would fit in beautifully with the Astros.
Didi Gregorius (Yankees): This is an interesting one. Just because the Yankees didn't make a qualifying offer doesn't mean Didi's tenure in pinstripes is over. He's expressed a desire to come back, and I'd imagine he will if the Yankees want him back. So, the ball's really in their court. I'm still leaning towards a reunion, especially after all the injuries they endured last season (not to mention Didi's own injury). If not, he waits before signing a one- or two-year deal. Maybe even across town.
Edwin Encarnacion (Rangers): Encarnacion, on the other hand, definitely won't be back with the Yankees next season. They declined his option and really don't need another DH. The Rangers, though. They're opening a new ballpark and would love a masher like Encarnacion to pair with Joey Gallo in the middle of the lineup. The fact that he can also play a capable first base adds to his value, but he's still primarily a DH, which limits his market to a handful of AL teams. This could end up like the J.D. Martinez bidding war between the Red Sox and themselves two years ago.
Mike Moustakas (Nationals): If Rendon leaves, Moustakas would be the perfect replacement in Washington. And he'll cost significantly less, too. After twice getting screwed over by being a free agent in the two worst possible offseasons, Moustakas might finally be in a position to cash in on the big contract he deserves. I think the Brewers will make every effort to keep him. I just don't think they'll have the resources to do it. Because every team that's in on Rendon and loses out will have pretty good Plan B's in Moustakas and Josh Donaldson.
Josh Donaldson (Phillies): Do you even remember who the Phillies' third baseman was last season? Exactly. They've shown that they aren't scared to spend money. After Year 1 of Bryce Harper resulted in a fourth-place finish, they won't be shy in going after more free agents. And Donaldson fits the bill in multiple respects. He can bat second in front of Harper and play third, a position where they don't have an incumbent.
Madison Bumgarner (Astros): Had he become a free agent five years ago, Bumgarner would've commanded the type of money Cole and Strasburg are going to get. Instead, he'll probably get No. 2 or No. 3 starter money, which he'll probably take to go to a contender and potentially add a fourth World Series ring to his resume. Frankly, it's weird to picture him wearing anything other than a Giants jersey. But, considering Houston's proficiency with resurrecting pitchers' careers, and the fact that Cole is likely to leave, I can definitely see the Astros signing Bumgarner and slotting him behind Verlander and Greinke, keeping that rotation ridiculous.
Dallas Keuchel (Yankees): Last year, the Yankees opted not to go after Keuchel, who had to wait until June before signing with Atlanta. This time, there's no compensation attached to him, so I think Keuchel gets a full season with somebody. And I think the Yankees will rethink their position about him, too. They're more likely to go after the two top-of-the-rotation arms. But even if they miss out on Cole and Strasburg, Keuchel still represents an upgrade over J.A. Happ. And a rotation of Severino, Tanaka, Paxton, Keuchel and German doesn't really look that terrible. He's a third or fourth option and will likely get offered better money (or more years) elsewhere, but, for some reason, I can see Keuchel shaving the beard and going after another ring in the Bronx.
There are a bunch of other mid-level free agents available, too, from Zack Wheeler (Blue Jays) to Yasiel Puig (Cubs) to Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers) to Nicholas Castellanos (Diamondbacks). So, while it'll probably be a slow market for the big names, we'll still see some movement as baseball's Hot Stove season gets going.
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