Yes, that's right, the picks post on a Thursday! But, as regular readers know, since Thanksgiving is the NFL's biggest holiday and there's always three games, Thanksgiving week is the one exception (other than the opener) that results in early picks.
Byes are finally over, too, which means we've got all 16 teams playing for the first time since Week 3. And there are some big ones with major playoff implications this week. Three teams can clinch spots, starting with the Saints on Thanksgiving night. I know luck came into play here (and flex scheduling last week), but the NFL really did a good job with the schedule this year. The national games both last week and this week have all been really good.
Bears (5-6) at Lions (3-7-1): Chicago-I'm a little surprised the NFL didn't go with Lions-Packers. Green Bay was Detroit's permanent Thanksgiving opponent for a while, so I figured they'd want that to be the Lions' Thanksgiving game in the anniversary season. Instead they play Chicago for the second straight year...with their third-string quarterback under center...going against the Bears' defense. The Bears beat the Lions just three weeks ago. They should do it again, but, sadly, they won't have any turducken waiting for them.
Bills (8-3) at Cowboys (6-5): Dallas-When the NFL set Buffalo as the Cowboys' Thanksgiving opponent, a lot of people didn't know what to make of it. Well, as it turns out, the Bills are 8-3 and look playoff-bound. This begins a brutal stretch for them, but they've got a two-game cushion in the wild card race. Dallas, meanwhile, is clinging to a one-game lead in the NFC East after that performance against New England that prompted Jerry Jones' wrath. He should feel better after this game.
Saints (9-2) at Falcons (3-8): New Orleans-For the second straight year, Saints-Falcons is the Thanksgiving night game. And New Orleans clinches the NFC South with a win. They'd have clinched it last week if they didn't have that shocking loss the first time they played Atlanta. The Saints have a huge showdown with the 49ers next week which could be for home field in the NFC. But they need to win this one first. After what happened in Week 10, they'll make sure of it.
Jets (4-7) at Bengals (0-11): Jets-Cincinnati has four chances to avoid joining the Lions and Browns in the 0-16 club (because, let's face it, they're not beating New England). On paper, this was their last best chance until a few weeks ago, when the Jets suddenly became this offensive powerhouse that scores 34 points every game. At first that seemed like a product of playing the Giants and Redskins, then they went and did the same thing to the Raiders. Sorry, Bengals fans, but you're staring 0-12 in the face.
Titans (6-5) at Colts (6-5): Tennessee-Overlook the Tennessee Titans at your own peril. Because the AFC South might just be theirs for the taking. They haven't played the Texans yet, and they could be tied with Houston for first place by the end of Sunday. That's why last week's loss to Houston was so costly for Indianapolis. It not only gave the Texans the division lead, but it pushed them into a tie with the Titans, making this one just as huge. And, frankly, I like what the Titans have been doing offensively. They go to 7-5 and, at worst, move into a tie for the second wild card spot.
Eagles (5-6) at Dolphins (2-9): Philadelphia-It's basically a battle for the 4-seed and the right to lose to Seattle or Minnesota between Philadelphia and Dallas. And week to week, you really can't tell which one doesn't want to make the playoffs more. Frankly, I think it's because both the Eagles and Cowboys just aren't that good (especially compared to the NFC's big 5). The Eagles have dropped two straight to New England and Seattle, but go back to playing the JV this week, which should get them back to .500.
Packers (8-3) at Giants (2-9): Green Bay-As Al Michaels said at the end of the game on Sunday night, the Packers are probably most thankful that they don't have any more trips to California on their schedule (at least in the regular season). And that loss to the 49ers might've been costly for a few reasons. First and foremost, it gave San Francisco the tiebreaker. But it also dropped the Packers to the 3-seed and thus no bye, while also putting them in a tie with the Vikings. So, basically, losing to the Giants would be really bad.
Browns (5-6) at Steelers (6-5): Pittsburgh-Let's just hope the end of this one isn't as eventful as their meeting in Cleveland. That, to say the least, was nasty. Although, both Myles Garrett's and Mike Pouncey's suspensions have them out for the rematch, and you know both teams will be on their best behavior. The Steelers, by the way, have somehow moved into the second AFC wild card spot. They have a perilous hold on it, though. And a second loss to the Browns would make it all but impossible for Pittsburgh to make the playoffs (especially since Cleveland still plays Cincinnati twice and Arizona).
Redskins (2-9) at Panthers (5-6): Carolina-Carolina's three-game losing streak has all but eliminated the Panthers from playoff contention. They essentially have to win out and hope at least one of the four dominant teams in the North or West goes on a massive slide (which seems unlikely). And let's not forget the Redskins, who finally won a home game for the first time in more than a year on Sunday! That was against the Lions, though. The Panthers aren't nearly as bad as the Lions.
Buccaneers (4-7) at Jaguars (4-7): Tampa Bay-Bruce Arians definitely has the Bucs going in the right direction. Especially in the past few weeks, Tampa Bay has looked really impressive. Jacksonville, meanwhile, finally returns home for the first time since Week 8. But that's what they signed up for when they agreed to host one of the London games every year. And their return to Northeast Florida will be disrupted by the guys from the other side of the state.
49ers (10-1) at Ravens (9-2): Baltimore-Baltimore is the best team in the NFL. There, I said it. And, after what they did to the Packers last Sunday night, the 49ers are making a pretty strong case as the best team in the NFC (I still say it's the Saints, though). Could this Super Bowl XLVII rematch be a Super Bowl LIV preview? And it's a huge test for San Francisco. Not just a cross country trip for a 1:00 kickoff, but probably the toughest opponent they've faced all season. We'll see how their defense can handle Lamar Jackson. Or, perhaps more accurately, what Lamar Jackson can do to their defense.
Rams (6-5) at Cardinals (3-7-1): Rams-They're a fringe playoff contender, but the Rams sure didn't look like it last week. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens sliced and diced them for 55 minutes on Monday night. It was bad. Although, frankly, that offense has had problems all season. Frankly, they play the Cardinals this week. Because they're a better team than Arizona. They can't afford to drop this one with Seattle, Dallas and San Francisco coming up.
Chargers (4-7) at Broncos (3-8): Chargers-Things haven't quite gone the way the Chargers and their fans expected them to this season. At 4-7, they're not just looking up a the Chiefs, the Raiders are ahead of them, too. At least they still have the Broncos. Things haven't exactly gone well in Denver this season, either. Bad luck has been the culprit for some of that, but 3-8 is 3-8. And that'll become 3-9. Because the Chargers won't go winless thru this three-game division run.
Raiders (6-5) at Chiefs (7-4): Kansas City-Oakland blew a golden opportunity to make this game really mean something when they flew cross country and laid an egg against the Jets last week. Now that turns this game into an absolute must-win for the Raiders, who already lost to Kansas City this season. The Chiefs, meanwhile, can pretty much wrap up the division with a win, which is equally important, seeing as they go to New England next week. They'll head to Foxboro for the AFC Championship Game rematch at 8-4.
Patriots (10-1) at Texans (7-4): Houston-New England will know going in whether or not they can clinch a playoff spot on Sunday night. All the Patriots need is either a Raiders or Steelers loss (both of which are very realistic possibilities), and a win locks up yet another Bradicheck playoff berth. Except I like the Texans to pull the upset here. Houston is a very similar team to Baltimore, and the Ravens dominated the Patriots when they played them on a Sunday night. Especially with that extra time to prepare, I see Houston giving New England all it can handle and then some.
Vikings (8-3) at Seahawks (9-2): Seattle-Neither one is at risk of losing their playoff spot. But the Monday night game is huge for seeding. The winner has the upper hand on the 5-seed, which means the NFC East winner instead of the 12-4 team that doesn't get a bye. The division is also in still in play for the winner. And that'll be Seattle. We really need to start talking about the Seahawks on the same level as the Ravens, Patriots, 49ers and Saints. They're THAT good!
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 103-72-1
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