Thursday, May 9, 2019

Hockey Conference Finals

After a crazy first round, the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs went a little closer to form.  Everyone expected Dallas-St. Louis to be close, and it was.  Colorado and Columbus gave them each a run, but the Bruins and Sharks proved to be the superior teams that they are.  The only real surprise was the Islanders, after looking so dominant while sweeping Pittsburgh, getting swept themselves by a Hurricanes team that's now 8-1 since going down 0-2 against Washington.

In fact, all four teams left have really hit their stride.  Boston and San Jose are still the favorites, but they're both in for a challenge.  Carolina was arguably the most impressive team in the second round.  It's hard to believe now that they were the 7-seed in the East, especially with the way they took it to the defending champs then an Islanders team that was nearly as good as Washington in the regular season.  St. Louis, meanwhile, looks nothing like the squad that had the worst record in the entire NHL in January.  I can definitely see the Blues playing for the Cup.

St. Louis would be the sixth different Western Conference champion in six years (going back to the tail end of the Kings-Blackhawks era).  San Jose is one of those five, having finally gotten over the hump in 2016.  For the Blues, meanwhile, it's been nearly 50 years.  They went to the Final in each of their first three years of existence, but haven't been there since.  Although, their most recent Stanley Cup Final game in 1970 gave us one of the most iconic hockey photographs of all-time--Bobby Orr's midair celebration after scoring the Cup-clincher.

Neither West team has ever won the Cup, while both Eastern Conference finalists have.  In fact, the Carolina Hurricanes have a pretty good track record.  They've made it at least this far in each of their last four playoff appearances (2002, 2006, 2009, 2019), including a Cup win (2006) and another Final appearance (2002).  And you've gotta feel for those long-suffering Boston fans who've had to wait a whole eight years since the Bruins last lifted the Cup (and six since they've even played for it).

Bruins vs. Hurricanes: It took a little while, but Boston finally displayed its superiority over Columbus as that series went on.  For all the Blue Jackets' talent, they were eventually stifled by the Boston defense.  And the Bruins' depth really came into play, as well.  That's always been one of their strengths, and their fourth line really delivered against Columbus.  Which was especially important, considering how good Sergei Bobrovsky looked throughout most of that series.

For Carolina, I'm curious to see how much of an impact their long rest is going to have.  I definitely think that was a factor against the Islanders, especially early in the series.  This time they're the ones who've been sitting around waiting for an opponent.  And for a team as hot as the Hurricanes were, that might not necessarily be a good thing.  We'll see how they react, especially for Game 1 in Boston.  And with Game 2 not until Sunday, that'll be their only game in an eight-day span.  Not exactly what you want when you're on a roll.

Can the Hurricanes keep their momentum after that break?  That will be an early key.  Once the series gets going, they'll be fine.  But will it be too late by then?  Especially with the way Tuukka Rask has been playing of late.  Combine that with the Boston defense, and I'm not sure Carolina will be able to score enough.  I also thought that against Washington and the Islanders, though.  And, this is a team taking full advantage of its opportunity.  I don't expect that to change against the Bruins.

However, Boston's depth will prove to be simply too much.  That was the difference against Columbus, and it'll be the difference here.  Also, keep in mind that the Bruins have a ton of playoff experience, which is another thing they can bank on should they need it.  In a way, they've gotten lucky, playing Columbus and Carolina instead of Tampa Bay and Washington.  They know the Hurricanes are a worthy adversary, though.  They wouldn't be here if they weren't.  And Boston will be ready for them.  The Hurricanes will win a game or two, but I don't see them winning four.  Bruins in six. 

Sharks vs. Blues: Having home ice sure paid off for the Sharks in each of the first two rounds, as they won a pair of Game 7's in their building.  And they just keep getting better.  Game 7 against the Avalanche might've been the best game they've played in the entire playoffs.  Martin Jones is a completely different goalie than the guy who got pulled in Game 3 of the Vegas series, too.  If he continues to play at that level, the Blues will have a very difficult time scoring.

That scoring was fully on display against Dallas, though.  The Blues have a number of offensive weapons, and they're all capable of being The Man on any given night.  Which is a tremendous asset.  Because it means San Jose has an awful lot of people to think about.  And it also means Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson might see even more ice time than they did in the first two rounds.

What concerns me about the Sharks, though, is those back-to-back seven-game series.  Those two defensemen play a lot, and so do San Jose's top forwards.  They haven't really had to travel (only going to Las Vegas and Denver), which is good.  But you have to wonder how much of a toll it'll take, if any.  And at least they haven't had to go back-and-forth after the Game 7's.  

Although, from a rest standpoint, they might actually have the advantage.  Yes, the Blues played one day earlier, but they went double overtime and had to travel.  That series was far more physically-demanding than Sharks-Avalanche was, too.  Which is enough for me to give the Sharks a slight edge.  

I anticipate another long series.  When these two met in the West Final three years ago, San Jose won in six, but none of the games were particularly close.  I think this one will be much closer.  The Sharks and Blues were separated by just one win in the regular season (San Jose was 46-27-9, St. Louis was 45-28-9).  When the teams are that evenly-matched, it comes down to the little things.  Those small details are going to make-or-break the series.  Sharks in seven.

When it's all said and done, the two better teams will emerge.  In the East, I feel comfortable saying that'll be the Bruins.  Carolina's had a nice run, but it ends here.  Out West, though, it's splitting hairs to find differences between these two.  Game 7 being in San Jose should be advantage Sharks, but is it with how good the Blues have been on the road all postseason?  We could very likely be hearing "Gloria" into June.  I'm still taking the Sharks, though.

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