They say that death and taxes are the only certainties in life. But that list could easily be expanded to five certainties. Because, like clockwork, the Patriots are going to end up in the Super Bowl, the Warriors are going to wind up in the NBA Finals...and Rafael Nadal's going to win the French Open.
There actually are three times he HASN'T won it since 2005, but you'd be forgiven for not remembering any of them. Believe it or not, other players (Stan Wawrinka, Novak Djokovic) won back-to-back French Opens in 2015-16. Then there was 2009, when a certain Swiss guy finally got that French Open monkey off his back. On the 10th anniversary of that victory and 20th anniversary of his Grand Slam debut right here (he lost to Pat Rafter in the first round), Roger returns to the red clay of Roland Garros for the first time since 2015.
The main reason Federer has missed the last three French Opens is pretty straightforward. He was injured in 2016, but sat out voluntarily to rest up for Wimbledon in 2017 and 2018. But there's another reason, too. Clay is his weakest surface, and his chances of beating Nadal are minimal at best. It's kinda like those poor Jeopardy! contestants who've had to go against James Holzhauer over the past six weeks. And, honestly, who can blame him for saying "Why bother?" with Wimbledon, his best Grand Slam, coming up less than a month later?
Although, even with all this talk about Rafa looking to extend his record to 12 French Open titles, there's another storyline that can't be overlooked. When he won his French Open title in 2016, Novak Djokovic completed a "Nole Slam." And this year he heads to Roland Garros with a chance to do it again. Serena has two "Serena Slams." It would be just as incredible for him to join her in that club and do the "Nole Slam" twice.
And here's another remarkable stat about Djokovic: if he wins, it'll be his 16th Grand Slam title, which would put him just one behind Nadal. A Nadal win, meanwhile, would move him to 18, just two behind Federer.
It really is incredible to think that when Pete Sampras retired in 2002, he was the all-time record-holder with 14 Grand Slam titles. He's now fourth behind all three of them! Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have combined to win 52 Grand Slam tournaments since Roger's first at Wimbledon 2003. That covers 13 of the last 16 years! Or, to put it another way, that's all but 10 of the Grand Slam tournaments played in that time! (And if you add in the three each for Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka, it's an even more staggering 58 of the last 63 Grand Slams won by the same five people).
So, while there are plenty of other talented men in the field, all signs point to another Djokovic-Nadal final. The only question is whether Rafa will make it No. 12 or Novak will make it four in a row. Seeing as Nadal was given a ridiculously easy early draw (qualifiers in the first round), he's not going to be tested. That'll pay off later in the tournament, which is why I'm going with the former of the two options.
On the women's side, however, it's wide open. Unlike the men, they go into this thing with a whole list of players who could win. There have been five different champions in the last five years, and that could easily be extended to six. Especially when you consider that list doesn't include Karolina Pliskova or Elina Svitolina, both of whom are still seeking their first career Grand Slam title.
Naomi Osaka is the best women's player on the planet and has won the last two Grand Slams, but those were both on hardcourts. She's never been past the third round in Paris, and her style of play doesn't seem well-suited to clay. So it would be a stretch to call her the "favorite."
You can't really call Serena the "favorite" either. It was here last year that she made her return to Grand Slam tennis after giving birth, and that return was mired in controversy because she wasn't seeded. This year, that's not an issue. She's ranked 10th and seeded 10th. Although, that means a potential quarterfinal matchup with Osaka, which would be quite compelling (especially since it would be their first Grand Slam meeting since the US Open final).
If you're looking for a favorite, Simona Halep would have to be it. She's the defending champion and was the finalist in 2017. I'm not saying Halep is the female Rafael Nadal. But she's definitely the best clay-court player in the world. Most importantly, her draw is favorable. On paper, her toughest match is the semifinal against the Serena-Osaka winner. But this is the French Open. Where weird things happen.
Another clay-courter worth keeping an eye on is Kiki Bertens. She won the tune-up tournament in Madrid, beating Sloane Stephens in the semis and Halep in the final, to reach a career-high No. 4 in the rankings, the highest-ever for a Dutch player. She was a semifinalist here in 2016 (by far her best-ever Grand Slam result), but has only won six total matches in her other six French Open appearances. Plus, this is the first time she's ever really been expected to challenge at a major, so we'll see how well she handles that pressure. Bertens also has a difficult draw with former champion Garbine Muguruza and last year's finalist Sloane Stephens as potential opponents.
Stephens and Muguruza are two of the other names that wouldn't surprise anyone if they put the necessary seven wins together to hoist the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen. There's a potential Angie Kerber-Karolina Pliskova quarterfinal, and the winner of that could easily run the table. But those two also seem like candidates for an early-round upset. The women's field is just so deep.
I feel compelled to make a pick, though. So I'm gonna go with Halep to repeat. I'll say she knocks off Svitolina in the final. She's going to reward my confidence in her one of these days.
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