Spring Training is here! Even though more than 100 free agents (including Bryce Harper) remain unsigned, every player that is on a team has reported to camp, and Spring Training games get started over the weekend.
With so many big names still out there, it's nearly impossible to predict what teams' Opening Day rosters are going to look like. But that doesn't mean I'm not gonna give it a try anyway.
Brian Cashman said about a month ago that the Yankees weren't going to make anymore major moves and that the roster was pretty much set. You can never say never with this team, though. They were linked with Machado right up until he finally inked that 10-year, $300 million deal with the Padres, and the Harper talk will continue until he signs somewhere. Even Aaron Judge has said that if the Yankees were to sign Harper, they'd make the outfield situation work (and they could badly use his lefty bat in a heavily right-handed lineup).
But, assuming Cashman's statement was accurate (and, barring an injury, there's no reason to think otherwise), there are only a handful of Opening Day roster spots that aren't already accounted for. I could be way off, of course, but the way I see it, we already know 22 of the 25 players who'll be wearing Yankee pinstripes on Opening Day against Baltimore. The rotation and catcher are set, with one spot available in the bullpen, the outfield and the infield.
As the Red Sox made abundantly clear in the Division Series, the Yankees needed to upgrade their starting rotation. And Cashman did that by trading for James Paxton and re-signing J.A. Happ for two years. Now, Paxton really only had half of one season in Seattle, and there's no guarantee Happ will replicate what he did after he was traded to the Yankees at the deadline last season. But, a rotation of Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, Happ and Sabathia is definitely better than last year's Opening Day rotation of Severino, Tanaka, Sabathia, Gray and Montgomery.
The starters don't need to go much beyond six innings on this team anyway. Because the bullpen (while often overused) is the best in baseball. And it only got better with the addition of Adam Ottavino. They have three guys who could be closers, which doesn't even include their actual closer Aroldis Chapman. So, they could use any combination of Ottavino, Green, Britton and Betances to get to Chapman.
Aaron Boone likes to carry 12 pitchers, which gives him a seven-man bullpen. Chapman will close. Betances, Britton, Ottavino, Green and Jonathan Holder will occupy five of the other six spots. But who fills that seventh will perhaps be the most interesting Yankees position battle of the spring.
Tommy Kahnle spent most of 2018 in Scranton, but was lights out after they got him in 2017. He's already on the 40-man roster, so if he has a good spring, you'd have to figure he's a good bet to make the team. If he doesn't, don't be surprised to see Kahnle released so that he can sign somewhere else. Stephen Tarpley, meanwhile, made the playoff roster, and would give Boone a situational lefty that he otherwise wouldn't have (I don't expect them to ask Britton to fill that role).
Then there's Luis Cessa. On paper, he looks like a longshot to make the team. After all, he's a starter and would only be on the roster as the long man. BUT...he's out of Minor League options, so he either has to make the team or be designated for assignment. And you can bet a bunch of teams would be ready to pounce if Cessa became available. So, that's a decision Cashman and Boone will have to weigh.
Which says nothing about non-roster invitee Danny Farquhar, which would be a remarkable story. He pitched in eight games for the White Sox last season before suffering a brain aneurysm when he was hit by a comebacker in late April. The fact that he's back on the mound less than a year later is amazing. My bet is he starts the year in Scranton, but he definitely seems like a candidate to get called up at some point during the season. And the reaction he gets when he does will be incredible.
Sanchez and Romine are the catchers. If one of them gets hurt during Spring Training, the other will start and Kyle Higashioka will be the backup. No controversy there at all.
Troy Tulowitzi was signed to play shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery. That's quite a risk, considering Tulo hasn't played in a Major League game since 2017. But, if he can't go or struggles, Gleyber Torres can always move over to shortstop. In which case, DJ LeMahieu, who was signed to basically fill the Neil Walker role, will be inserted as the starting second baseman.
Had the Yankees signed Machado, he probably would've played third, with Miguel Andujar moving across the diamond (which seems inevitable at some point). Andujar isn't a good defensive third baseman. But he also needs to play there to keep his bat in the lineup, so there's no dispute over who'll man the hot corner.
First base is a little bit of a concern, though. Luke Voit caught lightning in a bottle last season, to the point that he was the only first baseman on the roster in the playoffs. I'm worried the rest of the league has caught up to him. Voit rightfully enters Spring Training as the starter, though. Mainly because Greg Bird sucks. If Bird actually makes it through Spring Training without hurting himself (a big IF), I'm not 100 percent sure he makes the team. He strikes out all the time and can only play first base. And does a left-handed hitting backup first baseman really bring a team that much value? You do need a backup first baseman, though, and none of the other candidates (Tyler Wade) have any experience there.
There's no question about who's starting in the outfield. Aaron Hicks will play center, Aaron Judge will be in right and Giancarlo Stanton will DH. Brett Gardner was relegated to the bench in the playoffs last season, be he re-signed for one year and, assuming they don't become a surprise player in the Harper sweepstakes, will be back in left field. More importantly, Gardner is the only left-handed hitter in the lineup until Didi gets back (Hicks is a switch-hitter).
Clint Frazier has publicly said that he plans on challenging Gardner for the left field job, but the incumbent should have the edge for the reason I just mentioned. Frazier will battle Jacoby Ellsbury for the backup outfield spot. Ellsbury is still being paid an awful lot of money, and the Yankees would love to rid themselves of that contract. However, he has a full no-trade clause, so he's difficult to move. They've been trying for two years. Assuming Ellsbury is healthy, that prohibitive contract should make him the favorite to snag the other outfield spot.
So, barring anything unforeseen happening during the spring, this is what I envision for the Yankees' roster on Opening Day:
Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, JA Happ, CC Sabathia
Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle
Catcher: Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine
Infield: Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Andujar, DJ LeMahieu, Greg Bird
Outfield: Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury
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