When the IOC allowed the Tokyo Olympic organizers to add new sports to the program, they made it clear that it was for 2020 only. Those sports must reapply for inclusion at subsequent Olympics, where they'll face stiff competition from other sports that are also looking for their Olympic moment.
It's probably a safe bet that not all five of the sports being added for the Tokyo Games will be back in Paris (which is the main reason why I'm not a fan of this system). The whole point of it is to increase local interest by featuring sports that are popular in the host nation. And, I know this next part will be shocking, but the sports that are popular in Japan aren't the same as the sports that are popular in France!
Of the five, skateboarding seems the least likely to return in 2024. There are all kinds of issues with who's responsible for the governance of the sport, but that's only a small factor affecting skateboarding's chances to be included in the 2024 Games. More significantly, it has virtually no appeal in Europe, let alone France.
I'd also be surprised if surfing remained on the program in five years, but that seems less unlikely than skateboarding. Surfing's real issue would be finding a suitable venue, although I'm sure a Mediterranean beach in the South of France could generate sufficient waves if the organizers did decide to keep surfing. I'm not sure how popular it is in France, though.
Sport climbing odds seem 50-50 at best. The Japanese added it because they're very good at it. There were at least two Japanese finalists in all eight events at last year's World Championships. France did win one silver medal, but, overall, sport climbing's popularity is still limited (despite being added to the Olympics, it wasn't added to the Pan Am Games because not enough countries in the Americas have national federations). One thing sport climbing has in its favor, though, is that you don't need to build a venue. You can set it up pretty much anywhere.
Karate has been very strategic in its approach. They've added two French board members, and I think we all know the purpose for doing that. While adding a third martial art and fifth hand-to-hand combat sport seemed like unnecessary overkill, karate is a big enough sport worldwide to warrant sticking around. In fact, karate and sport climbing are the only ones of the five featured at the World Games.
Baseball and softball, meanwhile, is also taking a very smart approach, starting several grassroots programs to grow the game in France. The reason for that is just as obvious. There's no question that they'll be included in LA 2028, so it makes more sense for their long-term viability as Olympic sports to be on the program at all three Games instead of on-off-on. I think the French understand the benefit of keeping baseball and softball on the program, as well.
But if all five of Tokyo's added sports won't be on the Olympic program in Paris, what will replace them? We're already starting to get some idea, as different sport federations have announced their intentions to bid for a place at the 2024 Games. Which already has me thinking. How many sports will Paris add to the 28 core sports? And what sports will those be?
So far, we know chess, motorcycling, snooker and squash are in the running. Presumably the five sports being added for Tokyo will be considered, as well. And I'd be willing to bet that some others will be added before Paris 2024 makes its final recommendations next month. How many they ultimately recommend is completely up to them.
Squash is long overdue for Olympic inclusion. It was among the finalists when they were considering new sports for 2012, 2016 and 2020, but wasn't selected each time. Squash really should be included, though. It's the only sport in the world where four different continents are represented among the top 10 in the world rankings (on both the men's and women's side). It's included in virtually every other major multi-sport games you can think of other than the Olympics. And a squash court can be set up anywhere (they held an international tournament in the middle of Grand Central Station one time!).
And, frankly, squash is the only candidate that makes any sense at all. Chess is touting its global popularity and would feature a faster-paced format than traditional chess. Regardless, I can't see an international TV audience (which is a big factor in these decisions) sitting there watching two people playing chess and not wanting to change the channel. Which is the exact opposite of what the IOC wants. (They do have a cool logo, though.)
You can say almost the same thing about snooker. Billiards used to be on ESPN all the time (I think it's still shown on ESPN 8: The Ocho), but that was standard 9-ball pool. Snooker, meanwhile, is a completely different type of billiards. It, along with other types of billiards, is included in the World Games. I can't say snooker would add anything to the Olympics, though.
Motorcycling is an interesting one. Even they've admitted they have virtually no chance. In fact, it states in the IOC charter that no sports relying on machine-power will be included in the program. That eliminates motor sports and, presumably, air sports, as well. But motorcycling is proposing the Trial-E event, which uses an electric motorcycle in a competition that's very similar to mountain biking. Frankly, I see no chance of motorcycling even making the cut to sports that will ultimately be considered.
Another thing worth considering is that the IOC wants any new sports for Paris to fit into its target number of 10,500 athletes. The five additional sports for Tokyo aren't included in that number, so we'll likely see well over 11,000 athletes next summer. But how hard is it to add 64 squash players (32 men, 32 women)? No matter how many sports Paris 2024 proposes to include in its Olympic Games, squash should be one of them.
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