If the Rams win the coin toss, the should do themselves a favor and take the ball. Don't be cute. Don't give Brady an extra possession. That's a lesson the Chargers and Chiefs both learned the hard way. They both essentially outsmarted themselves...and they both found themselves down 7-0 midway through the first quarter before they'd even had the ball yet!
But that's not the only reason why it would make no sense for the Rams to kick off if given the choice. It's simple, really. Their offense is the strength of the team. So why would you not want to give Jared Goff the ball and see what he can do? At the very least, that's one less possession for Brady.
Don't put yourselves in a situation where you're playing from behind the entire game. That's what happened to both the Chargers and the Chiefs. New England dominated the first quarter in both of those games. The Chargers never made any adjustments. The Chiefs were able to and turned the AFC Championship Game into a shootout by the end, but you have to wonder how things might've been different had they not wasted eight minutes and spotted the Patriots a touchdown.
Of course, the Rams boast the two-time reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year. But, even for Aaron Donald, stopping Tom Brady is easier said than done. Which is why trusting the defense is a risky proposition. New England's obviously been here before (they're in the game every freakin' year!), and, as was made evident in each of the Patriots' first two playoff games, Bradicheck always comes up with something different. So why give New England the chance to do that right away? Take the ball and give yourselves a chance to set the tone. At the very least, a three-and-out will get your offense on the field and delay Brady's entrance into the game.
We've also learned that pissing the Patriots off is not a good idea. And, yes, that is something we should've known already. They turn any perceived slight into motivation. This year everyone kept saying that they "weren't as good" and "couldn't win on the road." Yet here they are, back where they always are, looking for another Lombardi Trophy. After winning the AFC title on the road.
As I said, we should know better than to doubt them. So we shouldn't be surprised at all that New England is back for the third straight year and the ninth time in the Bradicheck era. And, if the other eight are any indication, we're gonna have another close one on our hands. And it likely won't be decided until the end.
Ball control will be key. Both teams are capable of scoring quickly, so this could easily turn into a shootout. But, as we saw in the Patriots' first two playoff games, Brady is perfectly capable of taking time off the clock if the situation warrants. The Rams, meanwhile, have the best running back in football (whether he's healthy or not is an entirely different question) and have the ability to control the clock that way.
Both approaches can drain a defense. You're either getting tired out because you can't get off the field. Or you're trying to keep up with the pace and not getting any rest when the offenses are scoring so quickly. That's how a lot of games turn into shootouts.
Even in those crazy shootouts, though, it's usually whichever defense comes through with the big play that makes the difference. Look at the last two years. After the Patriots had cut it to eight in Super Bowl LI, the Falcons drove into field goal range, only to be knocked out when Matt Ryan was sacked on third down, forcing a punt. Atlanta never had the ball again. Then last year, the Eagles kicked a field goal to go up eight, then batted down the Hail Mary that would've sent the game to overtime.
And on that front, the Rams have the advantage. LA's offense gets most of the credit, but that defense is solid...and it's a lot more than Aaron Donald. Don't forget, they essentially shut the Saints out for the final three-and-a-half quarters of the NFC Championship Game. They're equally capable against the run and against the pass. And you know that, unlike Kansas City, they'll make adjustments (if Tony Romo knew what was coming, you'd think the Chiefs should've been able to figure it out). That's what happens when you've got a great defensive mind like Wade Phillips. This really could turn into a battle of wits between Phillips and Brady.
Experience could be a factor, but if it is, it'll be a small one. The Rams won't be overwhelmed by the moment. In fact, they're ready for it. This team plays in Hollywood. They know all about the spotlight, and they embrace it (remember that Monday night game against the Chiefs?). They've had one mission all year--to get to the Super Bowl. Even after those losses to the Bears and Eagles, they knew they were good enough to make it this far. They feel they belong. Playing Tom Brady in February won't change that.
This all started 17 years ago (to the day) against the Rams. Now we've come full circle and it's Patriots-Rams again. Of course, things are a little different than last time. For starters, the Rams are back in Los Angeles. More significantly, though, New England won't be surprising anybody. If the Patriots win, they tie the Steelers' record with their sixth Lombardi Trophy (a Rams win, by the way, would give the Patriots the record for the most Super Bowl losses).
Which will it be? A sixth win or a sixth loss? I think there are two big factors that will determine that. First, the Rams' defense needs to get off the field on third down. If Brady's marching down the field and extending drives, it'll be a long day for those big guys up front. The second key is having a defensive game-changer of their own. Because you know New England's defense will have to step up and make a big play at some point. They can't simply rely on Brady to win.
Ultimately, though, it seems like a fool's errand picking against the New England Patriots in the Patriots Game. The Rams will give them a game. But we've said this before, and it usually ends the same way. Brady wins his fifth MVP (although, who we kidding? Tony Romo will be the real MVP), as the Patriots win it, 27-24.
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