Saturday, December 29, 2018

Week 17, NFL 2018

Well, friends, we've reached the end of the line.  It's not just the final days of 2018, it's also the last day of the NFL regular season.  And we go into Week 17 with plenty still up in the air.  We know nine of the 12 playoff teams, but only two seeds are clinched.  Which means pretty much everybody else has something to play for and will be playing their starters as a result. 

Of course, the teams that are completely out of it have no obligation to play starters.  But nobody cares about those games where one (or both) of the coaches will be looking for new employment come Monday afternoon.

Dolphins (7-8) at Bills (5-10): Buffalo-Last year, the Bills beat the Dolphins in the finale in Miami, setting in motion a chain of events that would land them in the playoffs.  Things have obviously been a bit different this season.  This year, the biggest news surrounding the irrelevant finale is the Bills' Kyle Williams announcement that he's retiring after the game.  The Bills like to have their Dolphins home game late in the season so that Miami has to deal with the crappy weather.  Put those two things together, and you should see the other three AFC East teams end up below .500 for the season.

Lions (5-10) at Packers (6-8-1): Green Bay-Another game with absolutely no significance.  The Packers did manage to get a road win (their first of the season) last week, but you have to wonder how much of that was Aaron Rodgers deciding there was no way he was losing to the Jets.  At home, it's been a different story.  Don't forget, their first two games were their other two division home games, and that was the crazy comeback against Chicago and the tie with Minnesota.  They lost the first game to the Lions, so they'll be looking to avenge that.  Plus, 7-8-1 looks a lot better than 6-9-1.

Jets (4-11) at Patriots (10-5): New England-When the Eagles kicked that last-second field goal to beat the Texans last week, there was no bigger winner than the Patriots.  Because now all they need to do is beat the Jets at home to get their league-mandated first-round bye and set themselves up for their league-mandated appearance in the AFC Championship Game.  It's weird that the Patriots will actually have to play their starters in this one, but they probably won't have to for long.  New England is the only team in the league that's undefeated at home this season, so they also have that to play for.

Panthers (6-9) at Saints (13-2): Carolina-Towards the end of the Saints-Steelers game last week, Joe Buck made an interesting point.  When New Orleans won the Super Bowl nine years ago, they went 13-3 with losses to Tampa Bay, Dallas and Carolina.  Who did the Saints lose to this season?  With home field locked up, they've got nothing to play for.  Brees will probably play a little bit to help his MVP case, but the Saints really don't care whether or not they win this game.

Cowboys (9-6) at Giants (5-10): Giants-Ditto about Dallas.  Although, the Cowboys' starters are even less likely to play since they're playing next week and the Saints aren't.  Dallas is locked into the 4-seed and is pretty indifferent towards this game.  They're going to treat it like the fourth preseason game.  I doubt we even see Dak and Zeke.  And if the Giants' starters can't beat the Cowboys' backups...

Falcons (6-9) at Buccaneers (5-10): Atlanta-Atlanta is ending the season strong.  The Falcons have won two straight and played perhaps their best game of the season last week.  The fact that those two games were against Arizona and Carolina is irrelevant.  Because Tampa Bay falls into that group, as well.  I'd be shocked if this isn't Dirk Koetter's final game as Bucs head coach.  Dan Quinn is probably safe.  But you can bet he'd like to finish 7-9 instead of 6-10 just in case there is still any uncertainty.

Jaguars (5-10) at Texans (10-5): Houston-The Texans are in an interesting spot.  They can still be No. 2 in the AFC...or they can end up the road team in that AFC South wild card game.  The only way that happens is if they lose to the Jaguars, so you know they want to at least take care of that piece of business then see what happens with the Patriots.  Although, I think they know that having to rely on the Jets means it's likely they'll be playing next week.

Chargers (11-4) at Broncos (6-9): Chargers-That one-point loss to Denver in Week 11 could end up being the difference between the 1-seed and the 5-seed in the AFC for the Chargers.  Of course, the Chiefs' loss in Seattle last week means they still have a shot for it, but they have the far more difficult assignment.  Had they taken care of the Ravens, they wouldn't be in this situation.  All they can do is take care of business and hope the Raiders help them out.

Raiders (4-11) at Chiefs (11-4): Kansas City-It's crazy to think that Kansas City has been the best team in the AFC all season, but still hasn't clinched a damn thing (other than a playoff spot).  And for them the difference between the 1-seed and the 5-seed is huge.  They want to make everybody come to Arrowhead in January (and they really have no interest in playing the AFC Championship Game in Foxboro).  It might be a good thing that they haven't clinched yet, though.  Because after two straight losses, they need to get things right heading into the playoffs.  Going against the Raiders at home is a good way to do that.

49ers (4-11) at Rams (12-3): Rams-Kansas City's situation this week is similar to the one the Rams were in last week.  And they did straighten themselves out by dominating Arizona last week.  And, like Kansas City, they need to take advantage of their matchup against a Bay Area opponent in the regular season finale.  Because if they don't, they could end up playing next week.  Which would really be shocking considering how unbeatable they were for most of the season.

Bears (11-4) at Vikings (8-6-1): Minnesota-This is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the entire week.  The Bears can still get a bye if they win and the Rams lose.  Or they can win and not get a bye if the Rams win.  And if the Vikings win, these two could very well meet again next week in a wild card game.  Or Minnesota could be out entirely with a loss.  So, yeah, it's a big game.  Minnesota has a little more urgency, though, which I think will make the difference.

Bengals (6-9) at Steelers (8-6-1): Pittsburgh-There was no bigger loser last week than the Steelers.  Every result that could impact the Steelers negatively did and, as a result, Pittsburgh is now on the outside looking in.  Although, with the way the Steelers had been playing for the last several weeks, it can't be a complete surprise that they're in this dilemma.  They can't even worry about what's going on in Baltimore.  Because if they lose--at home--to the Bengals--it doesn't matter what happens in the Browns-Ravens game.

Cardinals (3-12) at Seahawks (9-6): Seattle-I'm not sure Seattle has any preference as to their opponent next week.  If they lose and the Vikings win, they'll drop to the 6-seed.  Otherwise, they're headed to Dallas.  Again, I'm not really sure it matters to the Seahawks.  We'll likely find out whether or not it does based on how much Russell Wilson plays.  Either way, the Cardinals have the inside track at the No. 1 pick, so they may not want to screw that up.

Eagles (8-7) at Redskins (7-8): Philadelphia-Each of the five NFC teams that have already clinched a playoff berth are likely either rooting for the Vikings to beat the Bears or the Redskins to win this one.  Because they have no interest in seeing the Philadelphia Eagles in the playoffs.  Not with the way they've been playing over the past month.  Contrast that to the Redskins, who've completely fallen apart since Alex Smith went down.  Washington is ready for the season to end.  Philly hopes it'll keep going.  They'll do they only thing they can and win, then see if the Bears can help them out.

Browns (7-7-1) at Ravens (9-6): Cleveland-Who ever could've predicted that Cleveland-Baltimore would be one of the biggest games of Week 17?  In fact, it's the Nantz-Romo game!  What's even crazier is that if the Browns had won that game they tied with the Steelers, this one would be for the division title.  The fact that Cleveland has a say in who'll win the AFC North is crazy enough!  Baltimore had everything go their way last week.  Now the Ravens are in the driver's seat.  They win, they're not just in the playoffs.  They're hosting the AFC West team that they either beat or should've beaten.  (The Ravens can also still technically be the 3-seed.)  Problem is, beating Cleveland is easier said than done.  Just like Bills fans were donating to Andy Dalton's charity after the Bengals got them in at the Ravens' expense last year, it's not that far-fetched to see Steelers fans doing the same to the charity of Baker Mayfield's choice.  Will the Ravens get knocked out with a Week 17 loss two years in a row?

Colts (9-6) at Titans (9-6): Tennessee-Speaking of things no one would've predicted, you've got Tennessee and Indianapolis in game 256, with the winner heading to the playoffs.  (It's not New Year's Eve, so we get a Week 17 Sunday night game this year.)  It could even be for the AFC South title if Jacksonville beats Houston.  And they're both red hot.  Tennessee has won four straight and Indy has won seven out of eight after starting 1-5.  If the Colts win, it'll also mean that the AFC South will be the only division to have sent all of its teams to the playoffs in the last two seasons.  The Titans have been superb at home, though.  It's not a coincidence that this run has come during their season-ending stretch where they played four of their last five in Nashville.  They've both had tremendous seasons.  I think the Titans are better.  And they're at home.  They make the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since 2007-08.

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 151-87-2

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