Saturday, December 22, 2018

Week 16, NFL 2018

As we get down to the final eight days of the NFL regular season, it's amazing how much can still happen.  Unless something crazy happens, we know all six NFC playoff teams and their seeds.  But the AFC is nuts.  The Texans and Patriots haven't clinched their divisions yet, but they will.  The Chiefs and Chargers will be the 1- and 5-seeds, but who gets which is anybody's guess.  Then there's that second wild card.  The Ravens currently have it, but can also be eliminated completely this week. 

I'm also going to set the odds pretty high that Titans-Colts will be next week's Sunday night game.  If they both win this week and the Ravens lose, it 100 percent will be, since the winner of that matchup will get the second AFC wild card.  I'll say Chicago-Minnesota also has a slight chance of being selected if the AFC is already figured out, especially if the Vikings need to win to get in.  The Eagles play the Redskins, too, and that could potentially be for a wild card, so that one's still in the mix.

That's for next week, though.  And a lot of that depends on what happens this week.  Especially since there are a number of matchups that will have a bearing on the playoff standings.

Redskins (7-7) at Titans (8-6): Tennessee-The Titans have had a streaky season to say the least.  They started 3-1.  Then they lost three straight.  Then they won two straight.  Then they lost two straight.  And now they've won two straight with a pair of home games left, and returning to the playoffs suddenly seems like a real possibility.  Never mind that they're currently eighth in the AFC.  They beat the Redskins, and they're likely playing for a wild card spot next week.  Who knows?  Maybe they'll even still have a chance to win the division.  Washington, meanwhile, is still alive in the NFC, but will be all but out with a loss.

Ravens (8-6) at Chargers (11-3): Chargers-This is probably the biggest game of the weekend.  If the Chargers and Chiefs have the same result this weekend, win or lose, the division and 1-seed come down to Week 17.  But if the Chargers lose and Kansas City wins, the Chargers are locked into the 5-seed.  So, yeah, this is a big game for them.  It's also a big game for Baltimore, the current No. 6 seed.  But their grip on it is precarious, especially with a trip to Southern California to face one of the best teams in the league ahead of them.  My guess is it won't be a three-way tie anymore after this week.

Bengals (6-8) at Browns (6-7-1): Cleveland-Believe it or not, until the Steelers beat the Patriots late on Sunday, the Cleveland Browns still had a chance to win the AFC North.  That's no longer a possibility, but they've still got plenty to play for.  If they win this week, they'll sweep the Bengals.  They haven't swept a division rival since doing it against the Ravens in 2007.  Speaking of the Ravens, if Cleveland wins this week, then beats them next week, they'll finish with a winning record for the first time since that season.

Buccaneers (5-9) at Cowboys (8-6): Dallas-To call last week's shutout shocking would be an understatement.  Dallas losing wasn't a complete surprise, but the way they just got completely destroyed sure was.  As such, it delayed the Cowboys' clinching party that still seems inevitable.  They'll close out the NFC East if they beat the Bucs, and they know they're essentially locked into the 4-seed (which would become official if the Bears win), so a win here will give them the opportunity to rest starters next week.

Vikings (7-6-1) at Lions (5-9): Minnesota-Minnesota survived the New England-Seattle stretch with its playoff spot in tact, and the Vikings maintained that position by putting an absolute beat down on the Dolphins last week.  Now they're in a position to lock up a wild card in Week 16.  They've even got a shot at avoiding back-to-back games against the Bears if they can leapfrog Seattle for the 5-seed (don't forget Minnesota has that tie, so their loss to the Seahawks doesn't really matter).  But first they have to take care of business and clinch a spot, which they can't do this week if they don't beat the Lions.

Giants (5-9) at Colts (8-6): Indianapolis-Nobody wants to face the Indianapolis Colts right now.  Don't forget, this is a team that started 1-5 and has now won seven out of eight.  And they made a statement against Dallas last week.  There's no reason to think they won't make another one against a Giants team that was also shut out by an AFC South opponent last week.  Which would set up that winner-take-all matchup next week in Nashville.

Jaguars (4-10) at Dolphins (7-7): Miami-Miami's still alive for the playoffs, even if it's ever so slightly.  But, in addition to getting a lot of help, the Dolphins need to win out if they're going to have any chance.  At the very least, though, beating Jacksonville in their home finale will guarantee no worse than a .500 record.

Bills (5-9) at Patriots (9-5): New England-Amazingly, New England hasn't clinched the AFC East yet.  With two division home games all they've got left, that'll get taken care of soon enough.  The Rams' loss last week also means that the Patriots are the only team in the league with an undefeated record at home, which doesn't seem likely to change.  That loss to the Steelers last week dropped them to the No. 3 seed in the AFC, though, so if they're going to get their league-mandated Wild Card Weekend bye, they're gonna need some help from either the Eagles or Jaguars.

Packers (5-8-1) at Jets (4-10): Green Bay-For the first time in the Aaron Rodgers Era, the Packers will finish with a losing record in consecutive seasons.  Which seems about right for how Green Bay's season has gone.  Mercifully there's only two games left.  Both of which are winnable.  Seeing this matchup of the first two franchises to win the Super Bowl makes me think back to the last time they played at Met Life in 2010.  It was while FOX and Optimum were fighting and the Jets wrote Optimum a letter asking to let their fans be able to see the game.  That was when the Jets played a max of two games on FOX a year.  The fact that the Giants are on FOX virtually every week apparently didn't matter.  (And, no, that has nothing to do with anything.)

Texans (10-4) at Eagles (7-7): Houston-The biggest winners of Week 15?  Houston.  The Texans didn't clinch the AFC South, but they moved into first-round-bye position when the Patriots lost.  Now, if they win out, a bye is theirs.  They'll face a tough test in Philadelphia, though.  The Eagles just have a different energy around them when Nick Foles is at quarterback.  Can they carry that energy to a 9-7 finish and a wild card berth?  Houston, by the way, locks up a playoff berth if the Chargers win on Saturday night (that game has a bearing on four other teams this week).

Falcons (5-9) at Panthers (6-8): Atlanta-When the schedule came out, Atlanta at Carolina in Week 16 looked like a game that would be awfully significant in the NFC playoff race.  Turns out, not so much.  All they've got to play for is bragging rights (and .500 is still a possibility for Carolina).  The Panthers saw their season unofficially officially come to an end with that strange loss to New Orleans on Monday night.  A defensive two-point conversion keeps them in it, then they do nothing on the final drive?!  They know they're out of it, too.  That's why they shut Cam down for the season.

Rams (11-3) at Cardinals (3-11): Rams-For the first time all season, the Rams look very vulnerable.  Or, maybe it's just Sunday nights.  Either way, they've essentially lost any shot at the 1-seed.  And now they have to worry about holding on to their bye.  The good news, though, is that besides not playing on Sunday night, they're facing a woeful Cardinals team this week.  And, maybe like last year's Eagles, a little late-season adversity might be just what the Rams need.

Bears (10-4) at 49ers (4-10): Chicago-Chicago clinched the division last week, but is still alive for a bye.  Of course, in order to get it, they'll have to win two road games and hope the Rams lose.  And the first of those road games is against a 49ers team that's won two straight (both at home).  So, this won't be an easy one for the Bears.  I do think they'll manage to pull it out, though.

Steelers (8-5-1) at Saints (12-2): Pittsburgh-It wasn't exactly season-saving, but beating the Patriots last week sure made the Steelers breathe a little easier.  Now they end their brutal stretch of games by visiting a Saints team that likely isn't leaving the Superdome until the Super Bowl.  New Orleans just has to win one of its two remaining games to lock up NFC home field, which I'm sure they'd love to get out of the way this week.  The Steelers will know beforehand if they can clinch the AFC North, so, if Baltimore loses, somebody's clinching something in this one.

Chiefs (11-3) at Seahawks (8-6): Kansas City-Suddenly, we're facing the possibility of Kansas City not playing a single playoff home game.  All because of a bold call on a two-point conversion.  The Chiefs will get some breathing room if the Ravens beat the Chargers, but if not, they'll have even more pressure on them Sunday night.  And they have the far harder matchup this weekend.  Going to Seattle is never easy.  Especially when the Seahawks have a chance to lock up a playoff berth.  This might be just the test the Chiefs need, though.

Broncos (6-8) at Raiders (3-11): Oakland-Last year, the Raiders played the Monday night game on Christmas, and it's what got the ball rolling on Jon Gruden's return to coaching.  This year they host the Christmas Eve Monday night game for what will likely be the final NFL game in Oakland.  It looks like the might have their stadium situation next season figured out (they'll go from sharing a stadium with one Bay Area baseball team to sharing with the other).  They'll either be really pumped up for their last game on the East Bay.  Or they'll get their butts kicked.  I'm not sure which.

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 141-81-2

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