Sunday, December 2, 2018

Week 13, NFL 2018

Man, a lot has happened in the NFL since our last installment of picks.  The Los Angeles Rams went from the 1-seed to the 2-seed back to the 1-seed in the NFC despite not playing a single game.  The Steelers gave their first-round bye to the Patriots.  Oh, and the Dallas Cowboys are a first-place team.  Like I said, a lot has happened since Thanksgiving.

Ravens (6-5) at Falcons (4-7): Baltimore-After two straight wins, guess who's suddenly holding the second AFC wild card?  Yep, you guessed it.  The Baltimore Ravens.  They play three of their next four on the road (with the other two against the Chiefs and Chargers), so whether or not they'll be able to hold onto it is the real question.  Don't count out the Falcons, either.  Their playoff chances are shot, so the best that they can hope for the rest of the way is being a spoiler.  This should definitely be an interesting one.

Broncos (5-6) at Bengals (5-6): Denver-Denver's probably not going to make the playoffs.  I say "probably" because it's unlikely, but not completely out of the question.  Especially with their remaining schedule.  And the five AFC playoff teams are sure hoping the Broncos don't make it.  Because none of them want to play Denver come January.  Cincinnati, meanwhile, can get back in the race if they win.  The Bengals are in free fall, though.  Move the Broncos to 6-6, with games against the 49ers, Browns and Raiders coming up.  (Does Denver actually go into the finale against the Chargers at 9-6 with a shot at the 6-seed?)

Rams (10-1) at Lions (4-7): Rams-The Rams are back to controlling their own postseason fate, and they can become the first team to clinch if they beat the Lions.  It's inevitable that they're going to clinch the NFC West, so they might as well get that out of the way.  The real race is between them and the Saints.  And now that things are back in their own hands, do you really see them blowing it with a loss to Detroit?

Cardinals (2-9) at Packers (4-6-1): Green Bay-Good news Packers, you're playing at home this week.  Even better news Packers, you're playing the Cardinals.  Green Bay knows the only way they have any shot at making the playoffs is to win out, and even that might not be enough if they aren't ahead of the Vikings and somebody else has 10 wins.  Anyway, it's an uphill climb.  The first step is what should be an easy home victory.

Bills (4-7) at Dolphins (5-6): Miami-Buffalo begins its backloaded division schedule with its first meeting of the year against the Dolphins.  Four of the Bills' final five games are within the AFC East, which would mean something if they didn't share a division with the Patriots.  Miami's been in a tailspin, but still has visions of a wild card if they can straighten themselves out over the season's final month.  The Bills swept the Dolphins last year, with their win in the season finale acting as the first of many dominoes that fell the right way for them to get into the playoffs.  The Dolphins, meanwhile, get Ryan Tannehill back this week.  That should give their offense a much-needed jolt.

Bears (8-3) at Giants (3-8): Chicago-We learned something very important over the course of their three division wins in 10 days.  The Chicago Bears are very much for real.  And they've got the inside track on an NFC North title.  Now they step out of the division to face the Giants, who actually resemble a real professional football team again.  Is it enough to slow down the first-place Bears?  Probably not.  But they should at least be able to keep it competitive.

Panthers (6-5) at Buccaneers (4-7): Carolina-Losing to Detroit and Seattle sure created a little predicament for Carolina, didn't it?  The Panthers seemed like a playoff lock until they lost three straight.  Now they're on the outside looking in, with losses to both Seattle and Washington working against them for tiebreakers.  Oh, yeah, and they haven't played the Saints yet.  So, to call this a must-win game for the Panthers is an understatement.

Colts (6-5) at Jaguars (3-8): Indianapolis-If I'd told you when the schedule came out that one of these teams would be in the heart of the playoff mix, it wouldn't have sounded so crazy.  What is amazing about it, though, is that the Colts are that team.  Yet that's where we stand, with Indy on a five-game winning streak that has gotten them to 6-5.  Make it six.  And if the Ravens lose in Atlanta (which is a very real possibility), they could be sitting on the AFC's 6-seed come Sunday night.

Browns (4-6-1) at Texans (8-3): Houston-Clevelanders are sure hoping this game goes better than the Astros-Indians ALDS.  And hey, the Browns are on their first winning streak in years.  Sure, it's only two games, but this franchise has been setting the bar pretty low.  Last week was their first road win since like 2014 or something like that.  Can they really make it two of those in a row?  Let's not get carried away.  After all, they're playing a Texans team that hasn't lost since September.  It's easy to forget that once upon a time Houston was 0-3 and had just lost to the Giants.  An eight-game winning streak can sure change the narrative, huh?

Jets (3-8) at Titans (5-6): Tennessee-When they beat the Patriots, it sure looked like the Titans were on the rise.  Now they've lost two straight division games and are back under .500.  Yet, they're still in the playoff mix with a bunch of winnable games coming up.  Starting with a matchup against the Jets.  I don't want to say the Jets have given up.  But they haven't exactly been playing the most inspired football, either.

Chiefs (9-2) at Raiders (2-9): Kansas City-Releasing Kareem Hunt was absolutely the right thing to do, and it sent a very clear message.  It doesn't matter how good your team is or how important your role on that team, certain behavior is unacceptable no matter what.  Plain and simple.  And the fact that Kansas City was willing to release him while holding the best record in the AFC proved that they understand that.  Fortunately, the Chiefs are more than just Kareem Hunt.  Even more fortunately, they play the Raiders this week.

Vikings (6-4-1) at Patriots (8-3): New England-That was a huge win last week for Minnesota.  As Cris Collinsworth pointed out on the Sunday night broadcast, their next two games are at New England, at Seattle, and they play the Bears in the finale.  So, basically, the Vikings needed that cushion if they want to have any shot at the playoffs.  They would also benefit greatly from winning one of these two road games on opposite coasts.  Don't count on it happening in Foxboro, though.  The Patriots are doing what they do every year.  And now they're only a game behind Kansas City (who they own the tiebreaker over).

49ers (2-9) at Seahawks (6-5): Seattle-In one of the most shocking flex-scheduling decisions in NFL history, this one was flexed out of Sunday night.  Of course, that decision was made before the Seahawks beat Green Bay and Carolina to jump right back into the playoff race.  It's not like that would've changed things, though.  Because the 49ers' season has been lost since Jimmy Garropolo got hurt.  So Richard Sherman's return to Seattle will be played in the afternoon.  And that's the only real storyline I can think of for this game.  The Seahawks should make it three in a row heading into their big matchup with the Vikings next week.

Chargers (8-3) at Steelers (7-3-1): Pittsburgh-Steelers, Steelers, Steelers...why do you do this to yourselves every year?  Pittsburgh was the No. 2 seed in the AFC heading into last week.  Now they're No. 4, and they've still got games against the Patriots and Saints remaining.  So their chances of getting that bye back don't seem too high (although the tie should help since it eliminates tiebreakers).  Anyway, if things stay the same, this would be a playoff preview.  And it gives the Chargers the chance to make a big statement win.  This is their first real test in a while, though, and they have to fly cross country for it.  Which leads me to believe the Steelers will bounce back.

Redskins (6-5) at Eagles (5-6): Philadelphia-Had the Cowboys not pulled off that shocker against the Saints on Thursday night, an Eagles victory on Monday night would've created a three-way tie for first in the NFC East.  As it is, this is still a big game for both of these teams.  The Redskins currently hold the second wild card and can all but eliminate Philly with a win.  The Eagles, meanwhile, keep themselves very much in the conversation heading into the homestretch if they win.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 10-5
Overall: 111-64-2

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