We're a third of the way thru the baseball season, and we pretty much already know the American League playoff teams. Like the National League last season, this year's AL is definitely separated into "haves" and "have-nots." Which will make trade deadline decisions easier, but will take a lot of suspense out of the playoff races.
Although, there's one race in the American League that figures to last all the way until September...and even into October. It's crazy to think that the Yankees and Red Sox could theoretically finish with the two best records in baseball, yet one of them is going to end up in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, only to potentially have the rivals then meet in the Division Series. Meanwhile, Houston would effectively get a bye into the ALCS by playing a Cleveland team that, as it stands right now, figures to finish in the 84-86 win range, which will be more than enough in a very weak AL Central.
I can't really call this a "flaw" of the playoff system. It's something that hasn't remotely been an issue in the seven years of the two wild cards. But this year, it's not just a likely scenario. It seems inevitable.
The only uncertain things about the Yankees and Red Sox, really, is which one will win the division and which will end up hosting the Wild Card Game. That and who their Wild Card Game opponent will be. Going into the season, most people thought it would be the Angels. And I still think the Angels are better than the Mariners, even though Seattle has built a bit of a gap and is actually tied with the Astros for first place. Assuming the Astros get their act together, the only race we're looking at in the American League (at least for playoff qualification) will be between the two AL West teams for the second wild card.
You can't really say this is a surprise, though. Going into the season, most people expected the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros to be the three best teams, and that the Indians on paper looked the strongest in the Central. We also thought a bunch of American League teams would be bad (although, not this many, and not this bad), so unless something drastic happens, we pretty much know the American League teams that will be playing in October.
Over in the National League, however, this season has been full of surprises. The Brewers have the best record (and third-best in baseball), the Phillies and Braves have been duking for the NL East lead all season, and, until recently, the expected "top" teams have struggled (the Dodgers will be lucky to make the playoffs at this point).
Washington has started to get its act together, moving into a first-place tie with a surprising Braves team that, in a lot of ways, resembles last year's Yankees. I don't think Atlanta's going away, but a healthy Nationals club is arguably the best in the National League. And they haven't been completely healthy yet. Don't stick a fork in the Nationals yet.
Last year's other division winners, the Cubs and Dodgers, also stumbled out of the gate. The Cubs did the same thing last year and still won the division going away, but this year they have to deal with a much better Brewers team. And let's not forget about the Cardinals, who haven't made the playoffs in a couple years. The NL Central has the makings of a really good three-team race.
So does the NL West, which had three playoff teams last year. The Diamondbacks and Rockies have been trading first place back-and-forth while the Dodgers try to figure some things out. Although, as bad as the Dodgers have played, they're still just 2.5 games behind Arizona. Clayton Kershaw's been out, and you know they have the money to be aggressive at the deadline. Call me crazy, but I think they've still got a run in them. Will it be something like the ridiculous 43-7 run that saved Dave Roberts' job a few years ago? Probably not. But will it be enough to get them into the playoffs, especially if they add, say, Manny Machado or Hanley Ramirez? Possibly.
October's still a long way away, and there's still a lot of season left. Although, if you're looking for playoff races, the National League's probably where you should turn. Because the top teams in the AL have already separated themselves, and that gap's only going to get larger.
In the NL, however, the "top" teams haven't played their best baseball yet. When and if they do, they'll be coming hard for the teams currently leading their divisions. And that'll be worth watching. Can the Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers assert their division dominance once again? Or will the Braves, Brewers or Phillies keep their surprise runs going into the postseason?
Either way, it looks like we're going to have two very different types of playoff races on our hands. In the AL, the elite teams will be positioning themselves to beat each other in October. In the NL, everyone will position themselves just to try and get there. Both should be interesting. We'll see what the remaining four months brings, and if anything changes.
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