Monday, June 11, 2018

A Potential AL All*Star Problem

Today's release of the first National League All*Star voting update served notice that the Midsummer Classic is only about a month away.  The talk of who's going to make the rosters has already been going on for a few weeks, and some experts have already started releasing their projections.  Atlanta's Nick Markakis sure seems like a safe bet to finally make his first All*Star team, while the talk of April was which AL shortstops would be left out.

Shortstop's not the only position where the American League is going to have several worthy All*Star candidates who don't get the invite to Washington.  In fact, the AL is so top-heavy this year, that there are going to be a number of difficult roster decisions to make.  I'm even beginning to wonder how they'll figure out getting all the mandatory team reps.

And, before I get started, I want to make something clear.  I actually like it that Major League Baseball requires each team to be represented at the All*Star Game.  I know there are a lot of people who disagree, but I've never had a problem with it and I hope they never change it.  Issues like this are rare.  But, like either the Yankees or Red Sox potentially having 100 wins and still ending up in the Wild Card Game, they can happen.

Because of the DH, the AL only has five roster spots left after the fan and player votes.  And, since the All*Star rosters must include 12 pitchers, four of those five need to be pitchers.  But, taking the positions out of it for a second, when you consider there are five commissioner's selections and you need to have a representative from the Rays, Blue Jays, Twins, Royals, Tigers, A's and Rangers, that's a problem.

Baltimore and the White Sox weren't included on that list because it's inconceivable to think that Manny Machado and Jose Abreu won't be chosen by the players at their respective positions (assuming they don't start).  And, believe it or not, first-place Seattle might need to be thrown into that mix, too (although James Paxton could easily be a players' selection, and now that Shohei Ohtani is out of commission, it's easy to see Nelson Cruz being the backup DH).

Now, are we going to end up with more than five teams for five spots?  Probably not.  Salvador Perez has started at catcher for the last several years.  If he does again, that takes care of the Royals.  Likewise, a Miguel Cabrera start, however unwarranted, would take care of the Tigers.  If not, assuming the AL's starting outfield is Mike Trout, Aaron Judge and Mookie Betts, Nicholas Castellanos would be a logical candidate for a player-chosen backup spot.  However, if neither of those things happens, we need a Tiger (and Castellanos would still be the likely choice).

Tampa Bay is another team that might take care of itself.  Because AL catcher has been an overall terrible position this year, and Wilson Ramos has been the best of that unstellar group.  If he doesn't get the call, though, we need a Rays pitcher, which means Blake Snell takes Corey Kluber's or Chris Sale's or one of the Astros' spots.

Ramos and Castellanos being chosen by the players is probably best-case scenario.  Because that brings us down to four teams.  Although, there's still a slight problem, since the best All*Star candidates for both Minnesota (Eddie Rosario) and Texas (Nomar Mazara) are outfielders, neither of whom figures to be selected by the players (although Rosario conceivably could).  Of those five spots coming from the Commissioner's Office, only one is a position player.

So, we could be stuck with an unspectacular pitcher representing the Twins or Rangers (cue the random set up guy) on the All*Star Team instead of a deserving starter like Charlie Morton.  Toronto and Oakland don't pose a problem in this regard, because it's easy to justify taking J.A. Happ as your Blue Jay and Blake Treinen as your A.  Likewise, if Kansas City somehow ends up in the boat of needing a pitcher, Kelvin Herrera (assuming he's still on the Royals at that point) being on the team won't turn any heads.  (I actually think Herrera will be chosen by the players anyway.)

The National League, meanwhile, doesn't have this problem.  They don't have a DH, which gives them two extra spots to fill.  And you're never going to have eight teams needing representation after the fan and player selections.  Even last year, when it was reversed and the NL was top-heavy, there were only five token team reps (Josh Harrison, Michael Conforto, Brad Hand, Corey Knebel, Pat Neshek) among the eight players added by the commissioner.

We're, of course, going to see a ton of Yankees and Red Sox and Astros, too.  As we should.  They're the three best teams in baseball.  But it may not be as many as we originally thought.  Simply because there won't be room for any more Yankees or Red Sox or Astros after the fan and player votes are calculated.

Unfortunately, it also means Andrelton Simmons' best chance at making his first All*Star Team is through the Final Vote.  Which isn't to say he hasn't put together an All*Star worthy campaign.  He'll just be a victim of the rules.  Specifically the mandatory team reps.

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