So, I really nailed it with that Germany pick, huh? Yeah, I think it's pretty safe to say no one saw that coming. But that's why this World Cup has been so wonderful thus far. Lots of late goals, many of which weren't just game-winners, they were scenario-changing for multiple teams. The FOX crew has said almost daily that this is "the best World Cup ever." There are still 16 games to go, so I'm not quite willing to go that far yet. But, as we get ready for the knockout round, I think it's time to revise my picks based on what we've seen so far.
Before getting into the knockout round, two general observations about the group stage. First, VAR works. It's been a tremendous addition to the World Cup. The delays haven't been crazy, and VAR is only being used to correct obvious errors. I was worried they'd go overboard with it, which they haven't at all. The best part is that it's been used correctly. You can see where the official might've missed it live, which is why they have the officials sitting in the VAR room watching. Even if you don't agree with every call/overturn, you can't argue that VAR has served its purpose.
Then there's the "fair play points" tiebreaker. I could do an entire post just on that. Japan didn't do anything wrong at the end of their 1-0 loss to Poland (where they didn't try for the last 10 minutes). They just knew the rules and took advantage of it.
Sure, I bet FIFA didn't expect this to turn into an NFL-playoff situation where they got down to the seventh tiebreaker (although it was actually the fifth, since tiebreakers five and six are irrelevant in the World Cup). But everyone knew those rules beforehand, so it's not like Senegal was screwed by some last-minute decision. Does it suck? Yes. But a late goal by either team in the other game would've made this discussion moot.
Is there a better way to separate teams than the number of yellow cards? Yes. But they need some way to separate teams at the end of the group stage. I've seen some suggestions regarding total number of shots on goal or goals during the run of play (as opposed to penalty kicks). The Rugby World Cup uses world ranking, which, as flawed as FIFA's World Rankings are, isn't terrible, either.
Either way, I think FIFA may revisit its tiebreaking procedures before the next World Cup in Qatar. Because, while Japan advanced over Senegal because of it, there was also the possibility that fair play would determine first place in both Group B and Group G, as well. (Fortunately, Spain and Belgium took care of that problem.) It also doesn't make any sense that a head-to-head win isn't the No. 1 tiebreaker, so if they do revise it, I'd like to see that moved up the list (they already use head-to-head as the first tiebreaker in the Euro).
Anyway, on to the round of 16 picks. Frankly, I haven't been overly impressed by anybody so far. Croatia, Uruguay and Belgium were the only teams to win all three of their group games, but Uruguay and Belgium were in ridiculoulsy weak groups (and Belgium accidentally beat England in a game that both teams wanted to be 0-0). Brazil and France definitely have more in them, and I think Spain is in a really good position for the knockout stage.
The bracket ended up looking really similar to the knockout round bracket for Euro 2016. The top half is definitely the stronger side, while the bottom half has a very European feel with seven UEFA teams and Colombia. So, I think it's safe to say we'll have at least one European squad in the final for the 17th consecutive World Cup.
It's also crazy to think that either France or Argentina will get knocked out in the round of 16 (but, hey, that's still further than Germany). With the winner of that match facing Portugal or Uruguay in the quarters, there'll be some major star power on display. Meanwhile, Belgium got the easier round of 16 game against Japan, but now has a quarterfinal against Brazil. England ended up winning by losing. Because if they beat Colombia, which they should, they've got a clear path to the semifinals.
Uruguay is the only team in the tournament that hasn't given up a goal yet, but I think that changes against Pretty Boy and Co. This is the hardest portion of the draw to pick, though, because you can see all four as semifinalists. Just based on what I've seen from the four teams, I'll say that quarterfinal will be Portugal-France, with the winner set to face Brazil or Belgium.
In the bottom half, Spain gets by Russia easily and meets Croatia in the quarters, with Switzerland and England in the other matchup. Although, I'm not counting out either Sweden or Colombia. Croatia, meanwhile, will give Spain all it can handle in an intense quarterfinal. But I think Spain has enough firepower to get by a strong Croatian side.
For my semifinal matchups, I've got France meeting Brazil and Spain taking on England. And get ready for a border battle in the final, since I've got France taking on Spain. As for the winner? I think Spain winning Group B and getting into the bottom half of the draw will be huge. Yes, they have to play Russia in Moscow. But, after that, their route to the final is much smoother. And I think that makes a difference as Spain wins the World Cup for the second time in eight years.
No comments:
Post a Comment