Sunday, January 14, 2018

Tennis Time In Australia

There's something that seems right about looking at a Grand Slam bracket and seeing the names Nadal and Federer on opposite sides as the top to seeds.  Last year, they were seeded ninth (Nadal) and 17th (Federer) at the Australian Open, only to meet in a turn-back-the-clock final that turned out to be just an indication of the resurgent year that was to come for both Roger and Rafa in 2017, when they swept the Grand Slams.

Novak Djokovic is hoping to start his 2018 the way Federer started his 2017.  And their situations are incredibly similar.  After missing the last few months of 2016 due to injury, Federer saw his ranking drop to No. 17.  But he came to Australia healthy, and we all saw the results.  Well, it was Djokovic who missed the end of the 2017 season due to injury, and his ranking has fallen to No. 14.  I don't think there's a single person who would be surprised to see Djokovic do this year what Federer did last year.

The Australian Open is funny.  Since it's at the beginning of the season, it's the most unpredictable of the four Grand Slams.  Yet it has a way of forecasting what's going to happen over the rest of the season.  Last year we had the Roger vs. Rafa final.  In 2016, we had Angelique Kerber upset Serena en route to becoming No. 1 in the world.  And in 2015, Serena snapped her Grand Slam drought, then won two more and made her pursuit of the calendar-year Grand Slam the only storyline anyone could talk about entering the US Open.

So what story will this year's Australian Open give us?  And what will we have to look out for 2018 as a result? 

Well, we're not gonna see how Serena comes back after becoming a mom.  The fact that she won the title last year while pregnant is remarkable in its own right, but she doesn't feel quite ready yet having played only one exhibition match since giving berth in September.  Knowing Serena Williams, she'd still probably win a couple rounds.  But she doesn't want to show up and just win a couple rounds.  She's not coming back until she knows she'll be a title contender at every tournament she enters.

In Serena's absence, the No. 1 ranking was passed around like a hot potato last year.  That hasn't changed, either.  Six different women enter the tournament with a chance to claim the No. 1 ranking.  It's currently held by Simona Halep, who's never won a Grand Slam title.  Neither has No. 2 Caroline Wozniacki.  Although, with no clear favorite, this is as good a chance as any for both of them to do something about that.

Just like each of the past three Grand Slams, this women's field is wide open.  No. 3 Garbine Muguruza was the best and most consistent player of 2017, Venus Williams is No. 5, and she reached two Grand Slam finals and a semi last year.  Sloane Stephens, meanwhile, heads Down Under as a Grand Slam champion after winning the US Open.  Then there's sixth-seeded Karolina Pliskova, and let's not forget about both Kerber and unseeded Maria Sharapova, both former champions here.

I have really no rhyme or reason behind my women's pick, but I'm going with Wozniacki over Pliskova for the title.  I know, I know.  Woz is notorious for underachieving at Grand Slams (or giving in to the pressure when she's favored, like at the French Open).  But she's got to win one eventually.  Right?

On the men's side, saying it'll be another Roger vs. Rafa final is the easy call, but it's not that clear cut.  Not only in Djokovic back, so is Stan Wawrinka, who also missed the US Open due to injury.  So, in other words, the other names will actually be there this time (although Andy Murray withdrew since he's still recovering from injury).

Health and fitness are obvious concerns for Djokovic and Wawrinka, but part of the reason for taking the rest of last year off was to rest and reset (which they saw work for Federer).  And they've both always played well here (this is, by far, Djokovic's best Grand Slam tournament historically).  The higher-seeded players got lucky with Djokovic and Wawrinka.  They could've ended up anywhere in the draw.  But they ended up with each other...and won't face Federer until the semis or Nadal until the final.

Although, because of Djokovic's extended absence last year, we've seen a rankings shift on the men's side.  Grigor Dimitrov is the No. 3 seed and fourth-seeded Alexander Zverev is the one who got stuck with Djokovic/Wawrinka in his quarter.  Meanwhile, Jack Sock is now the top American, and he enters 2018 ranked eighth in the world.  After what the American women did at the US Open, the pressure's on for the men.  It's been 15 years since Andy Roddick's US Open title, which is still the most recent for an American man...a stat that I'm sure Sock, Isner and Querrey are getting tired of hearing.

While picking an American would be bold and going with Djokovic or Wawrinka would show some extreme confidence in them, I'm gonna play it somewhat safe with my pick.  Nadal was the best player on tour in 2017.  That's why he's back at No. 1.  And that's why I'm giving him the slight nod.  As for his final opponent, here's where I'm going out on a limb.  In the quarterfinals, Federer loses to Juan Martin Del Potro (just like at the US Open) and Wawrinka beats Djokovic.  Then Wawrinka beats Del Po before losing to Nadal in the final.

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