Sunday, January 21, 2018

Football Picks, Conference Championship

We've got some new blood in the AFC and NFC Championship Games.  Three of the four remaining teams have never won the Super Bowl...and the fourth is the Patriots.  So, I guess that also proves the old adage "the more things change, the more they stay the same."

And for those of you who want to use the fact that Blake Bortles might be starting the Super Bowl and either Case Keenum or Nick Foles will be as proof that a franchise quarterback isn't that important are kidding yourselves.  Because who's the fourth remaining quarterback?  And why is his team in this position every year?  Exactly.

Jaguars (12-6) at Patriots (14-3): New England-This AFC Championship Game puts me in an awkward position.  I'm not at all mentally ready to deal with the idea of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Super Bowl, and seeing those disgusting helmets on the biggest stage is just not something America should be exposed to. 

But the alternative is the Patriots...again!  I don't know how many people are aware of this little-known NFL rule, but it's an official league requirement that the New England Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game.  Kinda like that NBA rule where LeBron is automatically in the Finals. 

It's been an incredible run over the last decade and a half, and it has to end sometime (right?).  It's not going to continue forever, despite what Patriots fans might think.  Is it going to end this year though?  Unlikely.  New England is the heavy favorite and rightfully so.  If they were playing Pittsburgh instead of Jacksonville, the chances of this game being somewhat close would be significantly better.  But against the Jaguars, the result will no longer be in doubt before halftime.

I'm not going to count the Jaguars out.  They're in the AFC Championship Game for a reason.  But I'm so totally confused as to how they played to completely opposite playoff games.  They couldn't do a thing offensively the entire game against the Bills.  Then, a week later, the Steelers can't stop them.  (Although, to be fair, they didn't stop Pittsburgh that much, either.)

Stopping Tom Brady and Co. in the AFC Championship Game, though?  Yeah, right.  Add another AFC title and an eighth Super Bowl appearance to Bradicheck's ledger.

Vikings (14-3) at Eagles (14-3): Minnesota-Wow!  Just wow!  The Minneapolis Miracle will go down as one of those plays in football lore...but only if the Vikings can do the job this week and get that home Super Bowl.  What that incredible play proved, though, is that Minnesota is much more than an amazing defense.  Any doubts about Case Keenum's ability to lead this team in the playoffs were answered, too.

The Eagles had plenty of doubters of their own.  And they silenced some of them with their impressive Divisional round victory over a Falcons team everybody thought would win.  Philly still has some its critics, and the Eagles definitely still feel like they have something to prove.  After all, they might be the first 1-seed in history to be a home underdog in both the Divisional playoffs and conference championship game.

So who has the edge in what certainly looks, on paper, like the more competitive of the two games?  Well, it sure has the makings of a defensive struggle (hopefully not to the extent of Jaguars-Bills).  Which means it'll come down to which offense is able to get moving more consistently against these two first-rate defenses.  Which translates to, yes, the quarterbacks.  Either Keenum or Foles will have to win this game for his team.

If it does come down to that, it could be a situation of who's more capable of making the big play.  And that's Minnesota.  The Vikings are known for their defense, but their offense can be explosive when it needs to be (case in point, last week).  The Eagles, on the other hand, might need that big play to come from their defense.  Because I don't see the Vikings making too many mistakes on the defensive side of the ball.  At least not one that'll cost them the game.

For all their painful memories of NFC Championship Games past.  From Gary Anderson's missed field goal to Brett Favre's late interception, the Vikings will get their redemption.  Minnesota's going home after the game one way or the other.  But they won't be taking the Eagles back to Minneapolis with them.  Instead, the Vikings will be getting ready for a home game in two weeks.

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 4-4
Overall: 165-99

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