Saturday, January 13, 2018

Football Picks, Divisional

We've reached the Divisional Playoffs, the weekend that many consider the best of the entire NFL season.  And this year all four road teams come from the South, which I don't think anyone saw coming.  In fact, the West has been completely shut out of the Divisional Playoffs for the first time since the eight-division format was introduced in 2002.  In both conferences, we've got the South champ at the North champ and the wild card team from the South at the top-seeded team from the East.

Wild Card Weekend didn't really tell us that much.  Jaguars-Bills was a terrible game and the Chiefs collapsed (Again!), setting up a pair of matchups where New England and Pittsburgh are heavily favored.  Meanwhile, in the NFC, the Rams didn't show up against the Falcons, which sends Atlanta to Philly.  That also meant the Saints-Panthers winner was headed to Minnesota, and the Saints made it clear pretty early that it would be them.

So, hopefully the experts are right.  Hopefully this is the best football weekend of the year.  Because the Wild Card round left a lot to be desired, and I think the Super Bowl champion will be one of three teams playing at home this weekend.  None of the wild card teams gave me any indication they'll be playing into February.

Falcons (11-6) at Eagles (13-3): Atlanta-Of the four winners last week, I'd say the Falcons have the best chance of making a Super Bowl run.  They finally look like the defending NFC champions, and they're actually favored on the road against the top-seeded Eagles. 

I've never seen a 1-seed that inspires less confidence than Philadelphia.  And it's much more than that incredibly unimpressive 6-0 loss to Dallas in the regular season finale.  They've been completely out of sync offensively since Carson Wentz went down.  So, the bye week was incredibly beneficial for them.  It gave them a chance to see if they could figure out something.  Which they'll need to do.  Because their defense can't hang with the Falcons.  Not with the way Atlanta is playing.  I'm concerned about Atlanta going coast-to-coast, but they played on Saturday last week, so they should be fine.  They get back to the NFC Championship Game.

Titans (10-7) at Patriots (13-3): New England-It's the Patriots' first game since the explosive Sports Illustrated story about disharmony between Bradicheck and Robert Kraft.  But we all know that New England isn't phased in the slightest.  In fact, they usually thrive in these situations.

They were going to be heavy favorites regardless of who they played this weekend, but the Titans especially are a great matchup for the Patriots.  I was impressed by Tennessee's comeback last week in Kansas City.  Winning at Foxboro in January is a completely different proposition, though.  The Titans will need to play an absolutely perfect game, and even that might not be enough.  There's a reason why the Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game every freakin' year!  New England always finds a way. 

Jaguars (11-6) at Steelers (13-3): Pittsburgh-Remember back in the beginning of the season when the Jaguars won in Pittsburgh and everyone thought it was just that usual Steelers blip against a bad team?  Well, little did we all know that they'd end up meeting again in the second round of the playoffs.  And the Jaguars go in full of confidence because of that win, when they were the better team in every possible way.

However, the Steelers are a much better team now than they were back then.  And they'll get even stronger with Antonio Brown returning for this game.  How effective he'll be is a question worth asking, but his mere presence in the lineup is enough to make a difference.  Jacksonville proved once again last week that the strength of their team is that defense.  This game won't be straight out of the 1970s, though.  You'd expect a bit more offense to be played.  The Jaguars won't be able to shut Pittsburgh down the way they shut down Buffalo.  The Steelers have too many offensive weapons and Jacksonville doesn't really have any.  Pittsburgh wants that AFC Championship rematch with New England, and I think they'll get it.

Saints (12-5) at Vikings (13-3): Minnesota-The Vikings will know beforehand whether or not there's a possibility of playing all of their playoff games at home (although, the AFC is the home team in the Super Bowl this year, so they could end up being the "road" team in their own stadium if they make it).  And if the Falcons do beat the Eagles, you know that they and their fans will be amped up even more.  Even if New Orleans is probably the toughest matchup of the three teams they could've played.

New Orleans is probably the best of the four teams that won last week.  But it'll be incredibly tough for them to make a return trip to Minnesota in three weeks.  Because not only are the Vikings the best team in the NFC and coming off a bye, they'll also be playing at home.  And that defense, along with the crowd, will be quite a difference.  If this game were being played in the Superdome, I'd give Drew Brees and Co. much more of a shot.  But the Vikings won when these teams met a few weeks ago, and I don't think things will be any different this time.  New Orleans is talented.  If they were playing Philadelphia, I'd be picking them.  I can't take them over the Vikings, though.  Minnesota's got everything going for it, and it's all lining up for them to play a home Super Bowl.  Although, if an upset's possible, I think it's much more likely this week than next week.

Last Week: 2-2
Regular Season: 161-95
Overall: 163-97

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